Are We About To See A Period Of Low Bitcoin Volatility?
Updated
This will be my last chart comparing the 2016-2017 bull market to the present day (for now). My next analysis will probably be a video, since I've laid out my charts to my liking : ) If you've been reading my recent extensive posts on the crypto market, you'll know that I'm starting to compare current market conditions with what happened specifically in June, 2016 using historical analysis. If Bitcoin is going to repeat what happened then, I expect to see continued failure to get above 12K coinciding with a more pronounced volume drop and a period of boring price action. I also would expect the mid-9K zone to hold, as we ride the bottom of the bullish channel (orange), until we break out towards our previous all-time high.
The orange channel is what I used to perfectly call the recent top near
14K right before the drop, so I'm giving it some serious credibility. Due to this, I think we could get rejected heavily at the channel top again, just as we did in 2017. This would ideally coincide with our previous all-time high around 19K-20K. Obviously speculation, and none of this has to play out. I've illustrated what I think could happen during the coming months in yellow. I really wouldn't be surprised to see some boring price action for Bitcoin, since things have been so volatile recently. I personally think the market could use a breather. Psychologically, I think the market needs to learn to accept current prices before moving up. Otherwise people may start to really question it. Plus we have a triple top on the RSI, though this doesn't always mean anything. That said, even with something like this happening, I think there could be some serious opportunities with alts.
On the bearish end of things, if Bitcoin drops significantly below the orange channel support, I'll have to change my bullish view of the market. if altcoins can't start to gain on their ratios during a period of low Bitcoin volatility, I think things will start to look more worrying, since I'd like to see money mostly stay IN the market rather than leave it. I will be of course updating as things progress. Likewise, if Bitcoin can break out of the channel sooner rather than later, I think our all-time high will be within reach.
This is not financial advice. This is purely for educational and speculative purposes.
-Victor Cobra
The orange channel is what I used to perfectly call the recent top near
14K right before the drop, so I'm giving it some serious credibility. Due to this, I think we could get rejected heavily at the channel top again, just as we did in 2017. This would ideally coincide with our previous all-time high around 19K-20K. Obviously speculation, and none of this has to play out. I've illustrated what I think could happen during the coming months in yellow. I really wouldn't be surprised to see some boring price action for Bitcoin, since things have been so volatile recently. I personally think the market could use a breather. Psychologically, I think the market needs to learn to accept current prices before moving up. Otherwise people may start to really question it. Plus we have a triple top on the RSI, though this doesn't always mean anything. That said, even with something like this happening, I think there could be some serious opportunities with alts. On the bearish end of things, if Bitcoin drops significantly below the orange channel support, I'll have to change my bullish view of the market. if altcoins can't start to gain on their ratios during a period of low Bitcoin volatility, I think things will start to look more worrying, since I'd like to see money mostly stay IN the market rather than leave it. I will be of course updating as things progress. Likewise, if Bitcoin can break out of the channel sooner rather than later, I think our all-time high will be within reach.
This is not financial advice. This is purely for educational and speculative purposes.
-Victor Cobra
Note
Cross-posted from my most recent video: Note
If Bitcoin can break out of the channel sooner rather than later, I think we could easily make an ATH attempt. On the other hand, the channel will tell us whether or not we will still see some more consolidation. Lots of Bitcoin FOMO right now.Note
Since I posted this analysis 3 weeks ago, volatility has finally started to decline along with volume a bit. If we're entering phase 4 of the market cycle, we can expect this sideways movement to last for even another couple of months. As mentioned above, a break out of the channel sooner rather than later would indicate otherwise. 
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