Bitcoin - at 200 day MA and 50% retracement. Significant support
Updated
Buy here. Any sensible person (institutions) looking to buy after the last spike up would be waiting for the 200 SMA and a bigger retracement than simply the bottom of that triangle we were in. I certainly was. And now, it's at a more reasonable retracement, backed by the 200SMA, and I'm finally willing to buy after waiting a few agonising months.
The bearish perspective: breaking out of a triangle means many people will be looking to 'short the pull back'. So 9k-9.5k is now resistance. I could see it going down further, potentially to 7.2-7.5k, as that's a 61.8% retracement and significant support zone. Also, sentiment right now is extremely bullish, which is already priced in. Price moves with *change* in sentiment, so it's a question of whether people will get even more bullish from here, or more bearish. With bitcoin, I think there's more bearish potential. However, I'm less convinced by the bearish arguments than the bullish ones.
Many months ago, I made the decision to buy at the 200SMA, and the 50% and 61.8% retracement. Two of these have come at once.
The bearish perspective: breaking out of a triangle means many people will be looking to 'short the pull back'. So 9k-9.5k is now resistance. I could see it going down further, potentially to 7.2-7.5k, as that's a 61.8% retracement and significant support zone. Also, sentiment right now is extremely bullish, which is already priced in. Price moves with *change* in sentiment, so it's a question of whether people will get even more bullish from here, or more bearish. With bitcoin, I think there's more bearish potential. However, I'm less convinced by the bearish arguments than the bullish ones.
Many months ago, I made the decision to buy at the 200SMA, and the 50% and 61.8% retracement. Two of these have come at once.
Note
Bitcoin has rebounded off the 61.8% retracement, giving a nice further buying opportunity for everyone looking at that 7.2k-7.5k zone, and now looks set to move higher. Still bullish.The counter argument is that it's technically still within a downtrend. I don't see this as a strong argument because this 61.8% retracement of the first breakout of a bear market is a much stronger pattern.
I always try to make a point of looking at both sides of the coin, because anyone who fails to see the other side will fail at trading. It's never clear-cut. Trading is a game of weighing up the bullish argument with the bearish argument, and seeing which is stronger. And in this scenario, the bullish argument seems much stronger to me. So, again, it's time to be bullish.
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