Just a few weeks ago, it seemed as though we were in a bear market, unable to recover, only to witness an insane bullish breakout, changing the trend once again. In this analysis, we will take a look at the bullish and bearish scenarios that could potentially play out from the current situation.
Bullish Evidence
- We can draw three major Fibonacci retracements: from 3.1k to 13.8k, 13.8k to 7.3k, and from 7.3k to 10.5k - As expected, we have seen a completion of wave Y at 7.2-3k. - We have seen an extremely bullish 40% move from the local bottom, supported by volume, strength, and momentum, breaking most major resistances. - We have broken the 8.8k resistance, 200 Standard Moving Average (MA) resistance, and even broke the upper trend line resistance, which could have led to a clear bull flag breakout had we closed above it. - We are still trading above the 200 MA, which is major support for long term trends, as well as major Fibonacci support levels from 8.5k to 8.9k - The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram on the weekly is showing weaker signs of bearishness, potentially looking for a golden cross again, should this trend continue
Bearish Evidence
- We are seeing heavy historical and Fibonacci resistance at 9.7k levels, which we have failed to close above - Relative strength index is at overbought territories on all time frames, also reaching overbought territories on the daily - A break down below major support levels at 8.5k and 7.2k could lead to further testing of the lower Fibonacci supports at 6k levels
Market Sentiment:
The market is currently more bullish than bearish, after witnessing an explosive bullish breakout, with long short ratio at 6:4.
What We Believe
We also believe that the market is more bullish than bearish, as there is massive support below current price levels.
Trade Safe.
Please make sure to follow and support us on twitter and telegram
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.