Halving Forecast
Updated
Just a quick idea on the state of BTC going into the halving. The countdown to the next big BITCOIN event has started, THE HALVING
Historically this is the event that kicks off the BULLRUN every 4 years. Mining rewards go from 6.25BTC to 3.125BTC and this gives miners a dilemma, do they hold on to their BTC they earn and only sell to cover costs, this diminishes the supply going into the market which raises prices assuming demand remains the same. Or if they do carry on selling their BTC it would be half the amount it was previously and still contributes less to the sells side pressure, raising prices. ETF issuers need these coins to offer to customers + retail investors returning to the market once FOMO enters the playing field.
DEMAND UP
SUPPLY DOWN
As for now I could see a mirror of the ETF rally being a logical path towards the halving. Filling the FVG at 33k would be a great long term entry point for any investor/trader should it hold as support. Once price has wicked down into that area and there's a reaction off that level then the bulls should look to push price for that 3 weeks or so going into the halving and beyond towards ATH as there's not much stopping it and history suggests this is the way BTC behaves after this event every 4 years.
Historically this is the event that kicks off the BULLRUN every 4 years. Mining rewards go from 6.25BTC to 3.125BTC and this gives miners a dilemma, do they hold on to their BTC they earn and only sell to cover costs, this diminishes the supply going into the market which raises prices assuming demand remains the same. Or if they do carry on selling their BTC it would be half the amount it was previously and still contributes less to the sells side pressure, raising prices. ETF issuers need these coins to offer to customers + retail investors returning to the market once FOMO enters the playing field.
DEMAND UP
SUPPLY DOWN
As for now I could see a mirror of the ETF rally being a logical path towards the halving. Filling the FVG at 33k would be a great long term entry point for any investor/trader should it hold as support. Once price has wicked down into that area and there's a reaction off that level then the bulls should look to push price for that 3 weeks or so going into the halving and beyond towards ATH as there's not much stopping it and history suggests this is the way BTC behaves after this event every 4 years.
Note
As we come to the end of the working week BTC is hovering around 40K after Greyscale has been consistently selling throughout the week, largely changing hands with BlackRock and others new SPOT ETF's. It's been reported that the majority of the selling is completely and so selling pressure will ease for the time being.
BITCOIN now has the opportunity to push on from here with 41.5K being the key S/R in my opinion. If that's the case then my target would be 44.5K in the short term to retest. Will then assess the next move from there.
However, if we reject off the 40.2K - 41.5K level with a meaningful reaction then the bearish path towards 33K is ahead of schedule.
Note
Following the trajectory for a 44.5K retest and following the forecast path so far. All eyes on the FOMC tomorrow, the last events have been a bit of a non entity but it's best to exercise caution.
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