last idea remains intact—we are still bullish. Alts have held strong while BTC plunged. (I don’t own any BTC, and neither should you above $100K.)
I predicted the exact $15.5K bottom on X, as well as the August 5th crash and bottom. Unfortunately, I wasn’t on the charts in December and missed the biggest, clearest signal on USDT.D for a potential local top, which otherwise would have 2x'd my current portfolio but mistakes were made)
BTC taking the hits while alts hold steady is a strong sign that whales are taking profits from Bitcoin and preparing for "rotation".
Most traders believe the cycle is over—and there are valid reasons for that (some of them are):
- A monthly bearish engulfing candle
- A structure resembling the 2021 top, suggesting one last rally before the bear market
- Worst of all, double bearish divergence on the monthly, which worries me too
However, there are strong counterarguments.
The biggest? The cycle has never topped with BTC.D this weak. That’s why I’m still leaning toward a bullish scenario until proven otherwise.
Update on the above chart:
The parabola is intact with a beautiful reaction. That doesn’t mean we can’t still visit the red box—there’s only air between them—but I’m holding, and that remains my primary scenario.
Alts can make new lows, but RR isn’t worth it. As I’ve said before, the time to sell spot bags has passed. You don’t sell in between unless invalidation occurs.
Timing is everything. We failed to time this market, assuming it would mimic past cycles—but everyone was wrong. Traders won this cycle, while investors (except BTC holders) struggled... until now, at least.
ONLY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN BOTH SCENARIOS (MENTIONED ON CHART) FOR ALTS?
You have to wait way longer on the second scenario but both would take us to our goal.
Worst case? We break and HTF close on USDT.D - last hope, officially ending bull market!
I predicted the exact $15.5K bottom on X, as well as the August 5th crash and bottom. Unfortunately, I wasn’t on the charts in December and missed the biggest, clearest signal on USDT.D for a potential local top, which otherwise would have 2x'd my current portfolio but mistakes were made)
BTC taking the hits while alts hold steady is a strong sign that whales are taking profits from Bitcoin and preparing for "rotation".
Most traders believe the cycle is over—and there are valid reasons for that (some of them are):
- A monthly bearish engulfing candle
- A structure resembling the 2021 top, suggesting one last rally before the bear market
- Worst of all, double bearish divergence on the monthly, which worries me too
However, there are strong counterarguments.
The biggest? The cycle has never topped with BTC.D this weak. That’s why I’m still leaning toward a bullish scenario until proven otherwise.
Update on the above chart:
The parabola is intact with a beautiful reaction. That doesn’t mean we can’t still visit the red box—there’s only air between them—but I’m holding, and that remains my primary scenario.
Alts can make new lows, but RR isn’t worth it. As I’ve said before, the time to sell spot bags has passed. You don’t sell in between unless invalidation occurs.
Timing is everything. We failed to time this market, assuming it would mimic past cycles—but everyone was wrong. Traders won this cycle, while investors (except BTC holders) struggled... until now, at least.
ONLY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN BOTH SCENARIOS (MENTIONED ON CHART) FOR ALTS?
You have to wait way longer on the second scenario but both would take us to our goal.
Worst case? We break and HTF close on USDT.D - last hope, officially ending bull market!
Note
whatever BTC does isn't my concern here since for the first time since last bottom, we've finally seeing strength in most alts over BTCThe rotation will happen soon and you'll get your 'alt season' but only on strong utility tokens. Memes had their bull market already!
It's time for ETH and utilities to shine...
BTC consolidating at any range (second scenario would do the game too - such a bad monthly close don't recover easily so we might go for the second scenario)
but whatever happens on BTC, the real reason behind posting this is:
ROTATE TO ALTS (if you're still sidelined) and have patience...
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.