The facade of a falling wedge
Updated
Hi *fam*,
I see a bunch of analysis on TV has been concentrating on a potential falling wedge, with many suggesting it is a bullish set up. I'm hesitant for a few reasons:
1. We are still in a bear market. If this wedge formed from a nice bull run I would be super bullish. We did form one from 20k to 6.9k, but it failed to break out at the bear TL.
2. We had lower daily and 4hr closes than the prior low. Wedges should not retrace >100%.
I sense there is some desperation in the market because of just how low we go since December. Many will seize on anything remotely optimistic for another bull run; I understand that, but it's the perfect storm for a bull trap!
This is what I *think* will happen:
1. We break out of the wedge to the upside.
2. Many will fomo buy and take this as confirmation of a bullish falling wedge.
3. We should get to ~$7.6 - 8k; which is a great scalp trade if you bought in now.
4. But I believe we will be rejected due to the resistance of the TL, the fib, the MAs and the flag.
Here are some of the bearish signs:
Bear flag
Larger rising wedge target still in play
So when will this be invalidated:
1. If we close on the daily higher than the bear TL (>8k)
2. We close above the long term TL at ~9k
3. Get above all MA's on the 4hr and daily.
That's a lot to get through!!
For a back story of how we got here, see
I see a bunch of analysis on TV has been concentrating on a potential falling wedge, with many suggesting it is a bullish set up. I'm hesitant for a few reasons:
1. We are still in a bear market. If this wedge formed from a nice bull run I would be super bullish. We did form one from 20k to 6.9k, but it failed to break out at the bear TL.
2. We had lower daily and 4hr closes than the prior low. Wedges should not retrace >100%.
I sense there is some desperation in the market because of just how low we go since December. Many will seize on anything remotely optimistic for another bull run; I understand that, but it's the perfect storm for a bull trap!
This is what I *think* will happen:
1. We break out of the wedge to the upside.
2. Many will fomo buy and take this as confirmation of a bullish falling wedge.
3. We should get to ~$7.6 - 8k; which is a great scalp trade if you bought in now.
4. But I believe we will be rejected due to the resistance of the TL, the fib, the MAs and the flag.
Here are some of the bearish signs:
Bear flag
Larger rising wedge target still in play
So when will this be invalidated:
1. If we close on the daily higher than the bear TL (>8k)
2. We close above the long term TL at ~9k
3. Get above all MA's on the 4hr and daily.
That's a lot to get through!!
For a back story of how we got here, see
Note
A vicious sell off after a few days of grinding higher.I thought we would at least see a flag, but it's morphed into a bear pennant instead
We may not even see this complete the full ABCDE and instead D break, as is customary in crypto.
If we hit around 6.4k, it's truly bear country.....
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