The Chart says it all really.
The 3 times PA has gone sideways, it can be seen as a Double Top, Dip and Range.
The Accumulation / Distributions was similar on Both previous occasions ( 2023, 2024 ) and, so far, are also very similar on this occasion in 2025.
But there are some major differences.......
IF these were to be seem as forms of WYCKOFF Ranges, then the longer the Range period, the stronger the move higher after and I find it very clear, that the move higher after the 2023 range was a lot higher than the move higher after the 2024 Range
2023 Range was approx 189 days ( marked on a Weekly chart so up to 7 days inaccuracy )
2024 Range was approx 168 days.
Currently, we are on 147 days. ( I mark this as a significant date as there was a 20 day difference between 2023 ane 2024 and the 147 is 20 days short of the 2024)
However, this is slightly different this time as we Dropped out of original Range box and have Just pushed back higher into original range Box, so, even though we have had a good few weeks, we are still in Range, the Original Range Box
https://www.tradingview.com/x/5HvscxBO/
On the original Chart, the dotted line just below PA is the approx line of the 50 Week SMA and we bounced off that Twice in 2024 to push higher and we just bounced off that again to return to original range box.
But as you can see, that was only a Wick down. It may not have been a Full on bounce to take us out of the upper range box and I see Momentum slowing for a while now
This also happened on previous occasions but on a smaller scale.
This can be seen better on the Daily chart, that includes the SMA's
https://www.tradingview.com/x/MeB49Pqq/
SMA's 50 Red, 100 Blue, 128 Green & 200 Yellow
The first thing to note is how the 200 is about to cross the 100
This is NOT a thing to panic about as the recent push higher will not be reflected in these Averages for a while but it does show the Depth of the Dip we just came out of.
What IS important is how PA is ABOVE the Averages..
But the Candle size are small and we are cooling off on a Daily MACD
https://www.tradingview.com/x/DaHEPr9A/
We are NOT overbought on this MACD yet and so we could see a turn higher but Longer term, so long as we remain in the upper Range Box, it would be good if this cooled off to Neutral again
For me, I am hoping for a GREEN MAY candle Close and that could very well happen but the candle may not be Large, which leaves PA still in this Range by month end, but maybe in the upper edges of it....around 110K
This would then allow for the possible Small RED June, that would take PA back to lower range. as we saw in 2020 - .THEN we have a nice cooled PA
OR we could just go for it NOW and see what happens as we did in 2017
it is impossible to predict this but we can be ready ..
BUY BOTCOIN - HOLD BITCOIN
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.