Hi all,
Good day and hope you are doing great.I decided to add some value on every post I make. So from now on every post will have two categories 1) Speculation that helps you to validate your speculation and 2) A Story that will help you to develop good trading habits as I believe trading habits and psychology are more important than speculation. Let me know your feedback in the comment section and don't feel shy to PM me for any help.
Speculation :
My Speculation here 10500s by Mid of March.
Story:
There are 2 persons named Jack and Jill. Both gave up their day time jobs in orders to pursue their passion for full time trading. Both were fortunate to save 100k$ as their capital. Now both have developed their strategies. Jack thought "Day trading" is better because bitcoin is so volatile thus he can trade daily catching the wicks and make his fortune. Jill thought bitcoin is so volatile and decided to stay away from day trading and focus on trading the trend.
It was march 2019 both started their trading career. Jack and Jill both were so lucky to buy bitcoin at a low price of 3900$ . Now both chose Bitmex as their primary platform to trade on the futures. Both Jack and Jill saw that bitcoin was at bottom and both were so right in predicting the bull market.
Jack is so ambitious about making his fortune. Now on his very first trade Jack believed in the Bull market and he risked 25% of his portfolio and longed 25X. Jack so lucky price pumped to 5000 from 3000. Jack is so happy that his very first trade was a great success. Jack continued his celebrations with continuous victories. He was so right in most of his calls so decided to risk more to make his fortune as early as possible. He spent day and night before charts without proper sleep proper diet and continued to trade every wick that is possible. In the process he didn't realize that he developed impatience. He slowly increased his risk. So far so good as he is having a good winning steak. Jack didn't learn that this is a game of probability and he will also have a failure. It was mid of September Jack had his misfortune, he went long risking 30% of his portfolio at the price of 8k and in minutes of time BTC fall down from 8k to 6k. Jack lost 30% of his fortune. Jack lost his cool and became impatient he wanted to gain back his loss so he increased the risk and he believed price wont go up and since most of his calls were so right he risked 50% and went short and jack don't know misfortune always chases when it has to and Bitcoin price jumped from 6k to 9k. Jack didn't understand what to do? Should he get out of the loss or wait. He decided to wait and surprise bitcoin Jumped to 13k in a span of 3 days and Jack lost 50% of all his fortune. Now Jack was completely desperate, he don't have confidence nor is a position to think clearly. He made so many trades with losing steak and lost 20% with small wrong trades and fee. Jack left with 30% of his initial capital without clear thinking, with no certainty on future and full of fears, finally big day has come, Jack went on a trade with all his remaining capital and God decided not to listen to his prayers. Jack Got Bankrupt. Jack learned a lesson that trading is for losers and started his new job and forget his trading passion.
Now coming to Jill. Unlike Jack Jill is very calculative and she didn't jump into trades like Jack. She first made some calculations with some forth sight. She divided her 100K into some parts like 1 part is for back up one part is for emergency 1part is for trading and so on. Jill also saw the pump like jack but unlike Jack, jill longed 3x of her 10% which is 10K. When bitcoin pumped from 3k to 5k unlike Jack she didn't celebrate her success but she developed patience. She didn't catch out but decided to run the "winners" so she waited. She Didn't trade day and night like Jack nor spent time like Jack. Jill spent her time with family and used her time productively. By the time it is mid September when price dipped from 8k to 6k, Jill didn't even bothered as she was not trading the spiked but trading the trend. When it hit 13k Jill realized she made 10*3 which is 30k profit. Jill came out of her trade. Jill is so happy now she got 30K more capital and spent her time to find next good trade and continued her trading passion.
Now lets compare Jack and Jill, Jack made 30k profit his his very first coupe of months but by the time bitcoin hit 13k which was 3 times more than their buy price, Jack got bankrupt on the other hand Jill made 30K profit. So lessons to be learned from this :
1) Jack lack Patience and so he chose to trade every wick
2) Jack is not calculative, he don't know how much profit he needed
3) Jack don't know Risk management
4) Jack fell prey to greed and fear
So Jack despite very good at speculation he got Bankrupt. Now moral of the story how many of you are like Jack ? if you have symptoms of Jack time for you to change.
Okay hope you like the story and ask the doubts or questions you have in the comment section. I will soon be back with other story. Good Luck and trade with peace.
Budha.
Good day and hope you are doing great.I decided to add some value on every post I make. So from now on every post will have two categories 1) Speculation that helps you to validate your speculation and 2) A Story that will help you to develop good trading habits as I believe trading habits and psychology are more important than speculation. Let me know your feedback in the comment section and don't feel shy to PM me for any help.
Speculation :
My Speculation here 10500s by Mid of March.
Story:
There are 2 persons named Jack and Jill. Both gave up their day time jobs in orders to pursue their passion for full time trading. Both were fortunate to save 100k$ as their capital. Now both have developed their strategies. Jack thought "Day trading" is better because bitcoin is so volatile thus he can trade daily catching the wicks and make his fortune. Jill thought bitcoin is so volatile and decided to stay away from day trading and focus on trading the trend.
It was march 2019 both started their trading career. Jack and Jill both were so lucky to buy bitcoin at a low price of 3900$ . Now both chose Bitmex as their primary platform to trade on the futures. Both Jack and Jill saw that bitcoin was at bottom and both were so right in predicting the bull market.
Jack is so ambitious about making his fortune. Now on his very first trade Jack believed in the Bull market and he risked 25% of his portfolio and longed 25X. Jack so lucky price pumped to 5000 from 3000. Jack is so happy that his very first trade was a great success. Jack continued his celebrations with continuous victories. He was so right in most of his calls so decided to risk more to make his fortune as early as possible. He spent day and night before charts without proper sleep proper diet and continued to trade every wick that is possible. In the process he didn't realize that he developed impatience. He slowly increased his risk. So far so good as he is having a good winning steak. Jack didn't learn that this is a game of probability and he will also have a failure. It was mid of September Jack had his misfortune, he went long risking 30% of his portfolio at the price of 8k and in minutes of time BTC fall down from 8k to 6k. Jack lost 30% of his fortune. Jack lost his cool and became impatient he wanted to gain back his loss so he increased the risk and he believed price wont go up and since most of his calls were so right he risked 50% and went short and jack don't know misfortune always chases when it has to and Bitcoin price jumped from 6k to 9k. Jack didn't understand what to do? Should he get out of the loss or wait. He decided to wait and surprise bitcoin Jumped to 13k in a span of 3 days and Jack lost 50% of all his fortune. Now Jack was completely desperate, he don't have confidence nor is a position to think clearly. He made so many trades with losing steak and lost 20% with small wrong trades and fee. Jack left with 30% of his initial capital without clear thinking, with no certainty on future and full of fears, finally big day has come, Jack went on a trade with all his remaining capital and God decided not to listen to his prayers. Jack Got Bankrupt. Jack learned a lesson that trading is for losers and started his new job and forget his trading passion.
Now coming to Jill. Unlike Jack Jill is very calculative and she didn't jump into trades like Jack. She first made some calculations with some forth sight. She divided her 100K into some parts like 1 part is for back up one part is for emergency 1part is for trading and so on. Jill also saw the pump like jack but unlike Jack, jill longed 3x of her 10% which is 10K. When bitcoin pumped from 3k to 5k unlike Jack she didn't celebrate her success but she developed patience. She didn't catch out but decided to run the "winners" so she waited. She Didn't trade day and night like Jack nor spent time like Jack. Jill spent her time with family and used her time productively. By the time it is mid September when price dipped from 8k to 6k, Jill didn't even bothered as she was not trading the spiked but trading the trend. When it hit 13k Jill realized she made 10*3 which is 30k profit. Jill came out of her trade. Jill is so happy now she got 30K more capital and spent her time to find next good trade and continued her trading passion.
Now lets compare Jack and Jill, Jack made 30k profit his his very first coupe of months but by the time bitcoin hit 13k which was 3 times more than their buy price, Jack got bankrupt on the other hand Jill made 30K profit. So lessons to be learned from this :
1) Jack lack Patience and so he chose to trade every wick
2) Jack is not calculative, he don't know how much profit he needed
3) Jack don't know Risk management
4) Jack fell prey to greed and fear
So Jack despite very good at speculation he got Bankrupt. Now moral of the story how many of you are like Jack ? if you have symptoms of Jack time for you to change.
Okay hope you like the story and ask the doubts or questions you have in the comment section. I will soon be back with other story. Good Luck and trade with peace.
Budha.
Note
Update regarding the price:1)
This daily chart still shows us that we are still in uptrend with good ADX value along with cci in the upper zone.
2)
This shows what we are having is a weekly correction and as week end is approaching we will have a decent pump.
So my suggestion is ride the trend which is UP here
Note
Buyers Need to panic on this tiny dip, as I mentioned above it is a weekly chart and if you see the main chart this dip was the down line I have drawn in the ghost prediction.Thanks again,
Budha
Note
I see so many keyboard typos and then I couldn't edit, I meant "Buyers need not Panic on this tiny dip and as I mentioned this dip is a weekly correction as I have drawn on the ghost bars on the very first chart"Note
Good to see 8500s back again. As mentioned weekly correction happened and I mentioned before we will start with weekend pump leading us to new highs. So be careful with your shorts and peaceful tradingNote
Note
Guys I am going on another vacation for 3-7days and wont be available to post more updates. My Suggestion even now is to stay away from Shorts and if panicked enjoy some thing you like and stay away from trade. I am seeing a huge pump in next 2 weeks and I am curious to wait and see it. Peace to all and see you soonNote
Found some time here on vacation,Weekly is Bullish
daily is sideways with Bullish momentum.
My Suggestion is still long. Expect 9100s in no time
Note
Good News we hit 8880s from 8700s since few hours. Day traders can scalp if they are happy, but I strongly suggest to wait and enjoy the trend untill we hit the main targetNote
Scalping around 8880s would have been a bad idea because price now is 8960s and Still looking good.Trade closed: target reached
Hi we hit 8980s on Bitstamp, which got tiny resistance which can slow down a bit before another rally upwards. However I am closing this idea as I received feed back that TA was not properly presented and so I will try to come up with new chart soon. My suggestion is "RIDE the Trend" Which is upwards and don't panic on tiny dips and hold your Longs for 10k will be hit very soon than you expect. Good Luck and Peaceful trading.Budha
Trade closed: target reached
Target 9100s also reached as mentioned in the the update few hours ago. Now we have to wait for Main target which I will be sharing from new post and new story
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.