BitcoinLong
BTC to reach new all-time highs in Q1 2025
Updated
I am not yet convinced BTC has fallen far enough to be written off as the end of this push.
My idea here is based on perceived symmetry between Nov-Dec 2023, and Nov-Dec 2024.
fig. 1a
As you can see here, in both 2023 and 2024 following pushes started around September that took the price above the levels I consider to indicate a long term uptrend. the uppermost peach coloured line is an upper bollinger band based on a 90-week SMA... I have found it provides an accurate idea of multi-year trends, allowing better judgement of the end of a trend as seen when viewing data from the 2020-2021 bullish push.
fig. 1b
The other set of peach bollinger bands are 2-week length with a positive offset. They act similar to a normal moving average but can give earlier buy-in points, and earlier sell signals.
Other than those, there are shorter timeframe versions of both in use, that give indications of oversold/overbought, and of buy and sell points for shorter-term trades.
Back to fig 1a, we that following the identified pushes, from November to December, we see a consolidation phase in almost the exact same shape. There's a sharp drop at first, then a short push to attempt a continuation of the bullish trend, and then a sudden sharp drop, forming the largest leg of the pattern. Now, looking at this closely we see that in 2023 BTC hits the upper of the 90-week BB and then bounces back up from it starting the Q1 push of 2024. As we remain above this level, I do not believe the final nail has been driven into BTC's coffin.
These next two images, taken from a 6hr chart, demonstrate that this pattern previously mentioned is not just perceived, but reflected in technical indicators. In both cases, the CCI reaches overbought, and pulls back below the MA until it's under 100, where we see a false signal caused by a very short bullish push, after which we see a real push back into overbought, and then a drop to below -100.
At this point, I will add that I am neither bullish nor bearish right now. I am not saying the market WILL go up, but that it still has the potential to. Fibonnaci retrace projections are giving me a bit of trouble as using them for the long-term trend is showing that we're at the limit of this push, whereas just viewing this push separately, shows we've hit a key support level which may be why we aren't seeing a real push below 93,000.
To conclude, I don't think it's best to write off the possibility of another push just yet, but be ready because that point will be reached within the next month or so.
Thanks for reading, if you made it this far - lmk your opinions in the comments. I'll try to update with any interesting developments :)
My idea here is based on perceived symmetry between Nov-Dec 2023, and Nov-Dec 2024.
fig. 1a
As you can see here, in both 2023 and 2024 following pushes started around September that took the price above the levels I consider to indicate a long term uptrend. the uppermost peach coloured line is an upper bollinger band based on a 90-week SMA... I have found it provides an accurate idea of multi-year trends, allowing better judgement of the end of a trend as seen when viewing data from the 2020-2021 bullish push.
fig. 1b
The other set of peach bollinger bands are 2-week length with a positive offset. They act similar to a normal moving average but can give earlier buy-in points, and earlier sell signals.
Other than those, there are shorter timeframe versions of both in use, that give indications of oversold/overbought, and of buy and sell points for shorter-term trades.
Back to fig 1a, we that following the identified pushes, from November to December, we see a consolidation phase in almost the exact same shape. There's a sharp drop at first, then a short push to attempt a continuation of the bullish trend, and then a sudden sharp drop, forming the largest leg of the pattern. Now, looking at this closely we see that in 2023 BTC hits the upper of the 90-week BB and then bounces back up from it starting the Q1 push of 2024. As we remain above this level, I do not believe the final nail has been driven into BTC's coffin.
These next two images, taken from a 6hr chart, demonstrate that this pattern previously mentioned is not just perceived, but reflected in technical indicators. In both cases, the CCI reaches overbought, and pulls back below the MA until it's under 100, where we see a false signal caused by a very short bullish push, after which we see a real push back into overbought, and then a drop to below -100.
At this point, I will add that I am neither bullish nor bearish right now. I am not saying the market WILL go up, but that it still has the potential to. Fibonnaci retrace projections are giving me a bit of trouble as using them for the long-term trend is showing that we're at the limit of this push, whereas just viewing this push separately, shows we've hit a key support level which may be why we aren't seeing a real push below 93,000.
To conclude, I don't think it's best to write off the possibility of another push just yet, but be ready because that point will be reached within the next month or so.
Thanks for reading, if you made it this far - lmk your opinions in the comments. I'll try to update with any interesting developments :)
Trade active
looking abt right but still have a few major key levels to clear
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