BitcoinLong
Bitcoin - 300k in 2021? Bitcoin halving/alt season and more
Bitcoin has been fractal in nature and has been showing similar price development in it's cycles, which I will show below.
In this chart I used a part of Bitcoins previous cycle as an overlay for the current cycle. The Grey box between the 2 left vertical lines is what I used as a fractal which I then put over the next cycle.
What we can see is that the top and bottom are pretty much the exact same, we then see a deviation from the trend, but currently the price is trading at a similar level as the fractal again.
Before I start this thread, I want to say: This is not financial advice, this is only a possible outcome of BTC's price based on history.
This thread will consist of both technical analysis and fundamental analysis
This analysis also has alot of confluence with the price prediction of Bitcoin based on stock to flow value's (credit's to PlanB: twitter.com/100trillionUSD )
Technical analysis
-Chart 1 For reference, I have used the 2010/2013 cycle and used it as an overlay for the 2013/2017 cycle and it looks pretty much the exact same, showing the same bottom and top. Seeing that these fractals have worked out before, implies that these fractals might help with future price predictions. Our current fractal overlay also implies that the price might be following the same fractal. The fractal shows that a 4-6 month period of sideways action is likely from here. This leads me to believe that we might have an alt season soon, as long periods of sideway action might give alts a chance to run.
- Chart 2 On a shorter term, we can see BTC retraced to the 0.705 fib in confluence with a weekly bullish breaker and support of the POC (point of control) This supports the idea that we have bottomed, or a are near the bottom when looking at the fractal.
-Chart 3 As seen in the chart, we are currently appearing to be at the end of our 5 wave impulse on the Bitcoin dominance chart (BTC.D). This chart shows us when alts are either gaining or losing market cap in comparison to BTC. We are currently also potentially making a head and shoulders pattern as shown in the chart. A break of the neckline would confirm this, and most likely will lead to expansion of alt coins. When we look at most of the altcoin charts, this seems like a logical move as alot of alts are showings signs of accumulation which I will show in the next charts.
- Chart 4/5 Two of the major pairs (LTC and XRP) showing signs of accumulation in their last phase using the wyckoff method, which could confirm the sideways period for BTC and seems like the logical move from here. Alot of alts are showing similar behavior.
- Chart 6 The market maker model is often used to show accumulation and distribution in markets. In this case, i used it to show similar movements on the upwards moment and the downwards movement of Bitcoin dominance. In combination to my idea of a mini alt season, I think we should see a decline in dominance here untill BTC stops going sideways. Then it is likely that we will return to 90%+ market dominance when BTC starts it's next bullrun. Information about the market maker model can be found in the following video (credits to ICT) youtube.com/watch?v=s9bg8JF7rm8
- Chart 7 DJI and other indexes showing signs of distribution in the stock market. When we look at some large stocks like Apple/Microsoft/Amazon we also seem to be making exponential moves to the upside. These moves usually end up correcting 70% or more. A stock market crash could be a bullish narrative for Bitcoin, as money might seek a way to invest in whenever the stock market is bearish.
If you haven't already, I suggest you read the following article on BTC and S2F ratio's:
medium.com/@100trillionUSD/modeling-bitcoins-value-with-scarcity-91fa0fc03e25
When we compare the BTC fractal to the model's that have been created by PlanB, we can see that the price of Bitcoin usually overshoot's it's range and then consolidates back to it.
Based on PlanB's data, we can see that the end of 2020/start of 2021 predicts a value of 100k+ BTC. My fractal shows the same outcome with a possible overshoot to the 300-350k range, which is entirely possible within the range of PlanB's model.
Fundamental analysis and
Bitcoin is a commodity, and commodities usually thrive whenever the stock market is bearish.
As shown in Chart 6, we can see that there is possible distributive behavior on the indices aswell as parabolic trends on major stocks. These usually are signs that a bear market is around the corner.
But what do fundamentals say about this?
- FED/ECB increasingly printing money to boost economy without the desired results
- Banks dropping interest rates to negative, which is done in order to make retail invest in stocks. This seems like a desperate attempt to boost the economy at it's top.
- Hyperinflation starting in more and more countries around the world.
- World debt is at record highs
- Bull market cycles usually last between 8/10 year, after that a recession happens (on average). This means a recession could happen any time now
- Major USA banks advising their large customers to decrease their exposure to USD
Why Could this be bullish for Bitcoin
As said above, comodities usually do well during bear markets. Gold and Silver usually are bought in order to sustain purchasing power.
Bitcoin has alot of advantages when compared to Gold/Silver:
- It's easier to buy
- It's easier/safer to maintain than physical gold
- Bitcoin well have better stock to flow values than gold in the future
Conclusion
- Signs of a comming recession are a possible bullish narrative for Bitcoin.
- BTC might hit 100k+ and even 300/350k if it overshoots, based on previous fractals and PlanB's stock 2 flow model.
- If BTC trades sideways the next comming months, it should be a good time to trade alts
- If BTC starts to run, make sure you have low exposure to alts, as historically seen, they perform poorly when BTC is in a bull market.
In this chart I used a part of Bitcoins previous cycle as an overlay for the current cycle. The Grey box between the 2 left vertical lines is what I used as a fractal which I then put over the next cycle.
What we can see is that the top and bottom are pretty much the exact same, we then see a deviation from the trend, but currently the price is trading at a similar level as the fractal again.
Before I start this thread, I want to say: This is not financial advice, this is only a possible outcome of BTC's price based on history.
This thread will consist of both technical analysis and fundamental analysis
This analysis also has alot of confluence with the price prediction of Bitcoin based on stock to flow value's (credit's to PlanB: twitter.com/100trillionUSD )
Technical analysis
-Chart 1 For reference, I have used the 2010/2013 cycle and used it as an overlay for the 2013/2017 cycle and it looks pretty much the exact same, showing the same bottom and top. Seeing that these fractals have worked out before, implies that these fractals might help with future price predictions. Our current fractal overlay also implies that the price might be following the same fractal. The fractal shows that a 4-6 month period of sideways action is likely from here. This leads me to believe that we might have an alt season soon, as long periods of sideway action might give alts a chance to run.
- Chart 2 On a shorter term, we can see BTC retraced to the 0.705 fib in confluence with a weekly bullish breaker and support of the POC (point of control) This supports the idea that we have bottomed, or a are near the bottom when looking at the fractal.
-Chart 3 As seen in the chart, we are currently appearing to be at the end of our 5 wave impulse on the Bitcoin dominance chart (BTC.D). This chart shows us when alts are either gaining or losing market cap in comparison to BTC. We are currently also potentially making a head and shoulders pattern as shown in the chart. A break of the neckline would confirm this, and most likely will lead to expansion of alt coins. When we look at most of the altcoin charts, this seems like a logical move as alot of alts are showings signs of accumulation which I will show in the next charts.
- Chart 4/5 Two of the major pairs (LTC and XRP) showing signs of accumulation in their last phase using the wyckoff method, which could confirm the sideways period for BTC and seems like the logical move from here. Alot of alts are showing similar behavior.
- Chart 6 The market maker model is often used to show accumulation and distribution in markets. In this case, i used it to show similar movements on the upwards moment and the downwards movement of Bitcoin dominance. In combination to my idea of a mini alt season, I think we should see a decline in dominance here untill BTC stops going sideways. Then it is likely that we will return to 90%+ market dominance when BTC starts it's next bullrun. Information about the market maker model can be found in the following video (credits to ICT) youtube.com/watch?v=s9bg8JF7rm8
- Chart 7 DJI and other indexes showing signs of distribution in the stock market. When we look at some large stocks like Apple/Microsoft/Amazon we also seem to be making exponential moves to the upside. These moves usually end up correcting 70% or more. A stock market crash could be a bullish narrative for Bitcoin, as money might seek a way to invest in whenever the stock market is bearish.
If you haven't already, I suggest you read the following article on BTC and S2F ratio's:
medium.com/@100trillionUSD/modeling-bitcoins-value-with-scarcity-91fa0fc03e25
When we compare the BTC fractal to the model's that have been created by PlanB, we can see that the price of Bitcoin usually overshoot's it's range and then consolidates back to it.
Based on PlanB's data, we can see that the end of 2020/start of 2021 predicts a value of 100k+ BTC. My fractal shows the same outcome with a possible overshoot to the 300-350k range, which is entirely possible within the range of PlanB's model.
Fundamental analysis and
Bitcoin is a commodity, and commodities usually thrive whenever the stock market is bearish.
As shown in Chart 6, we can see that there is possible distributive behavior on the indices aswell as parabolic trends on major stocks. These usually are signs that a bear market is around the corner.
But what do fundamentals say about this?
- FED/ECB increasingly printing money to boost economy without the desired results
- Banks dropping interest rates to negative, which is done in order to make retail invest in stocks. This seems like a desperate attempt to boost the economy at it's top.
- Hyperinflation starting in more and more countries around the world.
- World debt is at record highs
- Bull market cycles usually last between 8/10 year, after that a recession happens (on average). This means a recession could happen any time now
- Major USA banks advising their large customers to decrease their exposure to USD
Why Could this be bullish for Bitcoin
As said above, comodities usually do well during bear markets. Gold and Silver usually are bought in order to sustain purchasing power.
Bitcoin has alot of advantages when compared to Gold/Silver:
- It's easier to buy
- It's easier/safer to maintain than physical gold
- Bitcoin well have better stock to flow values than gold in the future
Conclusion
- Signs of a comming recession are a possible bullish narrative for Bitcoin.
- BTC might hit 100k+ and even 300/350k if it overshoots, based on previous fractals and PlanB's stock 2 flow model.
- If BTC trades sideways the next comming months, it should be a good time to trade alts
- If BTC starts to run, make sure you have low exposure to alts, as historically seen, they perform poorly when BTC is in a bull market.
My ideas are not meant for trading advice, always do your own research. Always be prepared for bull and bear scenarios
If my ideas were helpfull, feel free to donate here: 1Kufwyg8tq8s76SUfCPvCZUVgLxSha8UZZ
If my ideas were helpfull, feel free to donate here: 1Kufwyg8tq8s76SUfCPvCZUVgLxSha8UZZ
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