BTC - Skin in the Game with the SEC and CFTC on Deck
Updated
Talk about a crushing day! Stock market down, crypto market down! These times are trying and un-nerving to many that are new to investing and trading, and understandably. These are the times that separate the weak from the strong. If you are nervous and can not hold through these types of corrections in a speculative market then bottom line you put too much money in the market! You have to be able to hold tight through down markets and look for opportunity when most feel its the end.
I am not going to candy coat it. We have pulled back farther than I thought we would. One item of note on the chart is the huge volume spike. Now normally I do not rely on volume as an indicator but when you see a spike like this or like the spike we saw close to the stock market close today, you have to wonder if this was not a large investor pushing through margins to create the sellers they need to buy up at a discount. This has been happening for as long as markets have existed. Large investors use their buying or selling power to move the market the direction they want for their benefit, especially if they can do this around some FUD news. See below for a comment from the written testimony of J. Christopher Giancarlo, Chairman of the CFTC. Hardly the doom and gloom report, its quite the opposite. Odd this spike happen shortly after the report was released. But lets look at the charts.
We hit an odd 0.786 retracement level that has me even wondering if we go lower. Maybe we do, but selling here is as risky as buying at 18k in my opinion. We can surely pullback into the 4th wave of the recent midterm cycle. A break of 6427 tonight MAY put this into play sooner rather than later. If you have been following for more than a month, we are still sitting on a nice cash pile, and cash is king in corrections. Now I am not saying we will hit 5000, but the odds have increased that we may. The next Fibb levels are between 4431 and 4688. But lets first see if 6247 holds and see how the market reacts to the hearing tomorrow before jumping to conclusions as markets can turn on a dime. I would not be surprised on the other hand to see a rebound over night especially with the testimonies released today.
Please stop with the FUD about China banning bitcoin. Its simply regulating unscrupulous ICO's, exchanges, and insuring money is not being illegally transferred out of country. This is simply scare tactics. I was actually reading the Chinese Securities Regulatory Commissions (CSRC) regulations today to dig deeper and get the facts.
Unless you are in a 100% cash your portfolio is down over the past few weeks period, so please spare me the I called the paper short with no skin in the game comments. I can not guarantee I will always be right, and I have never claimed to time the top or bottom of a market, but one thing I can guarantee you is that I have skin in the game, and my trades are real, unlike many "paper traders". I'm right here with you and I am not even thinking of selling.
I'm taking a nap, getting up in a few hours, putting on my big boy pants, making some coffee and doing some research. I will be going over the testimonies of both the CFTC and SEC chairman before the hearing! I'm looking for an edge. I am also going to finish researching the CSRC regulations and see if I can garner any factual information that provides an edge as well and I will provide an update on my findings. Not misquotes or statements out of context, but factual research.
Bottom Line: If you want to make money like the Buffets and Rothschilds, you have to think like them! You have to dig where nobody else is digging. You have to have nerves of steel and willing to buy when everyone else is scared and selling. Bottom line you have to act contrarian to the herd. That's where the big money is made in markets. Not being with the status quo!
"The time to buy is when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own" Baron Rothschild
I am not going to candy coat it. We have pulled back farther than I thought we would. One item of note on the chart is the huge volume spike. Now normally I do not rely on volume as an indicator but when you see a spike like this or like the spike we saw close to the stock market close today, you have to wonder if this was not a large investor pushing through margins to create the sellers they need to buy up at a discount. This has been happening for as long as markets have existed. Large investors use their buying or selling power to move the market the direction they want for their benefit, especially if they can do this around some FUD news. See below for a comment from the written testimony of J. Christopher Giancarlo, Chairman of the CFTC. Hardly the doom and gloom report, its quite the opposite. Odd this spike happen shortly after the report was released. But lets look at the charts.
We hit an odd 0.786 retracement level that has me even wondering if we go lower. Maybe we do, but selling here is as risky as buying at 18k in my opinion. We can surely pullback into the 4th wave of the recent midterm cycle. A break of 6427 tonight MAY put this into play sooner rather than later. If you have been following for more than a month, we are still sitting on a nice cash pile, and cash is king in corrections. Now I am not saying we will hit 5000, but the odds have increased that we may. The next Fibb levels are between 4431 and 4688. But lets first see if 6247 holds and see how the market reacts to the hearing tomorrow before jumping to conclusions as markets can turn on a dime. I would not be surprised on the other hand to see a rebound over night especially with the testimonies released today.
Please stop with the FUD about China banning bitcoin. Its simply regulating unscrupulous ICO's, exchanges, and insuring money is not being illegally transferred out of country. This is simply scare tactics. I was actually reading the Chinese Securities Regulatory Commissions (CSRC) regulations today to dig deeper and get the facts.
Unless you are in a 100% cash your portfolio is down over the past few weeks period, so please spare me the I called the paper short with no skin in the game comments. I can not guarantee I will always be right, and I have never claimed to time the top or bottom of a market, but one thing I can guarantee you is that I have skin in the game, and my trades are real, unlike many "paper traders". I'm right here with you and I am not even thinking of selling.
I'm taking a nap, getting up in a few hours, putting on my big boy pants, making some coffee and doing some research. I will be going over the testimonies of both the CFTC and SEC chairman before the hearing! I'm looking for an edge. I am also going to finish researching the CSRC regulations and see if I can garner any factual information that provides an edge as well and I will provide an update on my findings. Not misquotes or statements out of context, but factual research.
Bottom Line: If you want to make money like the Buffets and Rothschilds, you have to think like them! You have to dig where nobody else is digging. You have to have nerves of steel and willing to buy when everyone else is scared and selling. Bottom line you have to act contrarian to the herd. That's where the big money is made in markets. Not being with the status quo!
"The time to buy is when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own" Baron Rothschild
Note
"We are entering a new digital era in world financial markets. As we saw with thedevelopment of the Internet, we cannot put the technology genie back in the bottle. Virtual currencies mark a paradigm shift in how we think about payments, traditional financial processes, and engaging in economic activity. Ignoring these developments will not make them go away, nor is it a responsible regulatory response. The evolution of these assets, their volatility, and the interest they attract from a rising global millennial population demand serious examination.
With the proper balance of sound policy, regulatory oversight and private sector
innovation, new technologies will allow American markets to evolve in responsible ways and continue to grow our economy and increase prosperity. This hearing is an important part of finding that balance" J. CHRISTOPHER GIANCARLO
CHAIRMAN, COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION
Note
Senate hearing is going on. c-span.org/video/?440770-1/jay-clayton-christopher-giancarlo-testify-hearing-virtual-currenciesNote
Let's not get too excited but we definitely had a nice bounced since the hearing today. We are testing the median of the channel as well as are looking to find support at the 0.618 retracement of the overall move from 175 to 19500. This again is positive for the bulls. What I want to see is the 0.618 to hold, and a breakout of the channel above the 8398 level which is the 0.382 retracement of the correction. Now normally I do not use volume as an indicator but I put it up there to see if there was more buying then selling right now as a sentiment indicator. Clearly this is the strongest buying we have had since Dec.Until we break the 9860 level we are still in a bear market. But this reversal has provided insight as to where we can gauge future positions. It will be interesting to see how the market reacts to Asia tonight.
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