Bitcoin Shake out Wick or Trend Change?
Updated
I started writing a few hours ago, but the movement of the market held me from finishing it in time. I wrote this in parts as well btw, so maybe it seems a bit weird :)
What a weekend, Bitcoin dumping almost 2000 points, wiping out all of the gains of the past week. It certainly isn't the first time, but this one is one of the few that came out of nowhere. There is another moment that a similar kind of move happened (which also came out of nowhere), that is exactly 1 year ago. It happened during the big summer rally of 2019. There are also many similarities as well, with an important one, having a big bullish wave up prior to it. Especially the bigger wave before the yellow circle and the smaller wave up after it. A big difference then and now (but can't really judge how meaningful that is), Like Bitmex wicked to 6400 while others wicked to 6800 and Binance even only to 6900. This time they all had the same price level. Then price went back up within 24/28 hours, this time it's taking longer (might also be without meaning). It was clear though, it had a more difficult time now to go up, but the past hours we can see it's pumping again. Now 9100ish is a big resistance, maybe up to 9200 even, so think important thing here is, if bulls can close the 4h candle above 9000/9100, then this move could be followed through. If it wicks down again, below 8800, then i think it was just a short shake out and we might continue down.
What stands out, Bitmex price and spot price have a big spread the past hour, almost up to 20 points below spot, which is the opposite of normal during a bullish trend. Those kind of things have changed since the March crash though. So it's either a big whale pushing up spot to be able to short even bigger on the futures market, or this is simply a real fight between whales on spot and futures. If it's a fight, we should/could see a big short squeeze, very similar to the 2019 version. If it's a shake out of shorts, think we should see price drop again withing an hour or so.
No i do not have a strong opinion on either options. Fact is, price went above 8800/8900, which was a big resistance. I am quite sure, that what they did earlier today was a big trap of bears. For that we have this curved shape on the left. Yesterday's was much steeper downwards, the one i showed in my channel and warned about. Today's was moving less downward and moving slower.
You can also see what looks like an inverse H&S on the left, was about to write that this kind is very unreliable and mostly for 2 reasons. First, the left shoulder wicked down below the head (usually a bear flag therefore) but another signs is the right shoulder, how it curves down instead flattening, as I have have shown in the upper left as an example how an ideal H&S looks like.
A lot has happened while writing this, think we have a range now between 8700 and 8900, i see that as the neutral zone. Above it think bulls in favor (now don't read that as we are going to pump) and below 8700ish think bears are in favor.
On the right of that chart we can see the big bear flag is still in play, with bulls failing to hold the high and have that big wick on that candle. Now inside this flag, bulls could still form a higher low above that green around 8600ish. Now since the bear trap today began at 8500ish, i assume the people (whales or whatever) who bought the price there to force the short squeeze (to fill up shorts in the bearish version), that if the 8500 breaks, would confirm that theory. Otherwise that level should hold as support and we should see them buy there again.
One important note, a pattern we have seen several times lately (on the 1h/4h charts), whenever a big support broke, but price didn't make a big dump but was dropping slowly and low volume, we eventually saw the price go up again. Now this usually goes for the opposite side as well. So with this i mean, in case we break 8500ish, we should see a big drop happen and high volume. Otherwise it could all be noise again. Think if we go above 9000ish, maybe 9100ish, the same theory, we should see price pump then. Especially because the assumption is that we had a big fight the past few hours. So assuming that is the case, one of them should throw in the towel and we should see a big move happen. Otherwise, most of what i said is probably just a nice story for a movie :) LOL.
Also want to mention, that channel i kept showing past days (here and in my public channel), was amazing. It eventually gave all the answers past days. Now this is not always the case of course, but sometimes you can get lucky if you find it and see it has real value, which is a big difference than wanting to see something. Think i mentioned it in my previous analysis, that when it was still moving inside of it, small chance to see it break up from it. Well it didn't take long to see it pump above it. But it never really left it behind and kept testing it. This situation is VERY similar to the big bearish wedge i posted about a few months ago, it also broke above it, but never really left it behind ( I mentioned it back then several times as well, look up those analysis and you will find it). Write this down in your log book, because you can judge this, not as a guarantee, but as a big clue of what the big boys are doing.
Don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Previous analysis:
What a weekend, Bitcoin dumping almost 2000 points, wiping out all of the gains of the past week. It certainly isn't the first time, but this one is one of the few that came out of nowhere. There is another moment that a similar kind of move happened (which also came out of nowhere), that is exactly 1 year ago. It happened during the big summer rally of 2019. There are also many similarities as well, with an important one, having a big bullish wave up prior to it. Especially the bigger wave before the yellow circle and the smaller wave up after it. A big difference then and now (but can't really judge how meaningful that is), Like Bitmex wicked to 6400 while others wicked to 6800 and Binance even only to 6900. This time they all had the same price level. Then price went back up within 24/28 hours, this time it's taking longer (might also be without meaning). It was clear though, it had a more difficult time now to go up, but the past hours we can see it's pumping again. Now 9100ish is a big resistance, maybe up to 9200 even, so think important thing here is, if bulls can close the 4h candle above 9000/9100, then this move could be followed through. If it wicks down again, below 8800, then i think it was just a short shake out and we might continue down.
What stands out, Bitmex price and spot price have a big spread the past hour, almost up to 20 points below spot, which is the opposite of normal during a bullish trend. Those kind of things have changed since the March crash though. So it's either a big whale pushing up spot to be able to short even bigger on the futures market, or this is simply a real fight between whales on spot and futures. If it's a fight, we should/could see a big short squeeze, very similar to the 2019 version. If it's a shake out of shorts, think we should see price drop again withing an hour or so.
No i do not have a strong opinion on either options. Fact is, price went above 8800/8900, which was a big resistance. I am quite sure, that what they did earlier today was a big trap of bears. For that we have this curved shape on the left. Yesterday's was much steeper downwards, the one i showed in my channel and warned about. Today's was moving less downward and moving slower.
You can also see what looks like an inverse H&S on the left, was about to write that this kind is very unreliable and mostly for 2 reasons. First, the left shoulder wicked down below the head (usually a bear flag therefore) but another signs is the right shoulder, how it curves down instead flattening, as I have have shown in the upper left as an example how an ideal H&S looks like.
A lot has happened while writing this, think we have a range now between 8700 and 8900, i see that as the neutral zone. Above it think bulls in favor (now don't read that as we are going to pump) and below 8700ish think bears are in favor.
On the right of that chart we can see the big bear flag is still in play, with bulls failing to hold the high and have that big wick on that candle. Now inside this flag, bulls could still form a higher low above that green around 8600ish. Now since the bear trap today began at 8500ish, i assume the people (whales or whatever) who bought the price there to force the short squeeze (to fill up shorts in the bearish version), that if the 8500 breaks, would confirm that theory. Otherwise that level should hold as support and we should see them buy there again.
One important note, a pattern we have seen several times lately (on the 1h/4h charts), whenever a big support broke, but price didn't make a big dump but was dropping slowly and low volume, we eventually saw the price go up again. Now this usually goes for the opposite side as well. So with this i mean, in case we break 8500ish, we should see a big drop happen and high volume. Otherwise it could all be noise again. Think if we go above 9000ish, maybe 9100ish, the same theory, we should see price pump then. Especially because the assumption is that we had a big fight the past few hours. So assuming that is the case, one of them should throw in the towel and we should see a big move happen. Otherwise, most of what i said is probably just a nice story for a movie :) LOL.
Also want to mention, that channel i kept showing past days (here and in my public channel), was amazing. It eventually gave all the answers past days. Now this is not always the case of course, but sometimes you can get lucky if you find it and see it has real value, which is a big difference than wanting to see something. Think i mentioned it in my previous analysis, that when it was still moving inside of it, small chance to see it break up from it. Well it didn't take long to see it pump above it. But it never really left it behind and kept testing it. This situation is VERY similar to the big bearish wedge i posted about a few months ago, it also broke above it, but never really left it behind ( I mentioned it back then several times as well, look up those analysis and you will find it). Write this down in your log book, because you can judge this, not as a guarantee, but as a big clue of what the big boys are doing.
Don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Previous analysis:
Note
We had what looked like an H&S a few hours ago with the neckline around 9750. But this one was once again a great example of the unreliable ones, almost identical even to the one I showed a few days ago between 9100/8800 (don't remember if i posted it here as well though). Anyway, Wedges can turn into an H&S and vice versa. Here we can see that the H&S got turned into a wedge. However, instead of seeing a strong move up, it's moving slowly and volume has dropped a bit as well.
So the guidelines i see here are, that channel we have on the right and think the 8960ish high. Now this 8960ish, could become a stop hunt level, the more touches we see the bigger the chances we see a stop hunt. Just can't know if it's a pure stop hunt (so wick up and down) or that whales simply use that extra fuel to pump the market even more.
Now obviously there is a lot of noise on these low time frames now. So think (and hope) we get a real answer through the 4H candle in the middle. Think a close above the red zone, would be a sign for the bulls. For the rest, think i mentioned it above.
Note
I just stood up and gave a standing ovation for the whales, on how they play these games. Anyway, there is the big move i said should happen, assuming the fight was real. So think the bulls threw in the towel. But it's not over yet though, the bear flag did not yet really break and knowing Bitcoin, maybe they are like doing the double game here :), first short shake out, now maybe a long shake out.
Damn, while writing this, already pumped up 350 points from the low. Well, that is not really how a sure bearish move should look like.
Maybe flip a coin now? LOL It's like almost in the neutral zone again.
So think same goes for the bears, need a candle close below 8400ish.
The theory i mentioned about that 8500ish, where the bear trap started, seems to be real, since price dumped 250 points below it. But now they just pump it back up again? This crap doesn't make a lot of sense now. Would say, if we go above 8700/750, that's neutral to slightly bullish. Maybe better said, think best to stay away even :). So even though its a big bounce, maybe if this 8650ish holds, it could still turn down, but to be honest, doesnt look like it wants to do that
Note
New Bitcoin analysis:
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