Bitcoin's August Possibilities
Updated
Hello everyone! I hope all is well today.
I noticed, we are in a time where what will happen to BTCUSD (in August) is pretty obvious. As all traders and investors know- it's either up or down!
So-- I have outlined all the possible cases, I expect BTC to follow one of these paths. Share your opinion in the comment section below!
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Let's get to it.
First, take note on the chart. The darker blue line is a longterm support line of this years run. It is not beautiful, but it is worth our attention. Next, the two white lines are quite obviously the (downward) channel lines. Finally, I see immediate resistance at 11,000USD, so I put a line there as well. 11,000 is a potential pivot point.
The Bull Cases/Paths Are:
(i) We just printed a potential double bottom at 9150, could this be our bottom? All we can say about this is that it is a potential reversal signal (as we have, before that, been making lower highs and lower lows)... So, watch out for 9200 as strong support.
(ii) We broke above the 50day MA
BullPath (i): We break through (and hold above) the 11,000USD point, which almost guarantees 11,800-12,000USD as the next stop. If this is where BTC goes, then $11,800 will be where the bulls and bears fight it out. If we can break above that white line, boom, we are almost certain to continue the uptrend and see higher highs very soon after (first eyeing $15,000).
BullPath (ii): The second bullish path sees us fail to hold above $11,000 in the near-term. We then trade sideways on the lower squiggly line between 10-11 thousand for the rest of the month before getting squeezed out in the beginning of September with the bullish move being to the upside. Again, targets for this (wedge-like) path is new highs around 15,000USD. **Note** For this path to work out, we will need to bounce nicely off 9,800-10,000USD (right at the 100day MA which will coincide with the longterm blue support line!). It all works out so beautifully.
The Bear Cases/Paths Are:
(i) We are in a descending channel. So, we see heavy resistance at the top.
BearPath (i): We cannot hold above 11,000USD which in my opinion is a sign of extreme weakness. We will see sub $9150 if we get turned around here and do not bounce off the blue line (very crucial line).
BearPath (ii): Resistance knocks us down hard at 12k.
BearPath (iii): We trade between 10-11k for August and break to the downside when the price action gets more and more squeezed (note, I think it is more likely that if we follow this path we break up not down).
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WELL there ya have it! As always this is not a recommendation to buy or sell. I just wanted to make a chart that hopefully can be as helpful to YOU and ME for this month :)
Comment any thoughts down below. I will update this as time moves on. As of writing, we have been trading above 11,000USD for about 20 minutes!
Take care,
jack
I noticed, we are in a time where what will happen to BTCUSD (in August) is pretty obvious. As all traders and investors know- it's either up or down!
So-- I have outlined all the possible cases, I expect BTC to follow one of these paths. Share your opinion in the comment section below!
------------------------
Let's get to it.
First, take note on the chart. The darker blue line is a longterm support line of this years run. It is not beautiful, but it is worth our attention. Next, the two white lines are quite obviously the (downward) channel lines. Finally, I see immediate resistance at 11,000USD, so I put a line there as well. 11,000 is a potential pivot point.
The Bull Cases/Paths Are:
(i) We just printed a potential double bottom at 9150, could this be our bottom? All we can say about this is that it is a potential reversal signal (as we have, before that, been making lower highs and lower lows)... So, watch out for 9200 as strong support.
(ii) We broke above the 50day MA
BullPath (i): We break through (and hold above) the 11,000USD point, which almost guarantees 11,800-12,000USD as the next stop. If this is where BTC goes, then $11,800 will be where the bulls and bears fight it out. If we can break above that white line, boom, we are almost certain to continue the uptrend and see higher highs very soon after (first eyeing $15,000).
BullPath (ii): The second bullish path sees us fail to hold above $11,000 in the near-term. We then trade sideways on the lower squiggly line between 10-11 thousand for the rest of the month before getting squeezed out in the beginning of September with the bullish move being to the upside. Again, targets for this (wedge-like) path is new highs around 15,000USD. **Note** For this path to work out, we will need to bounce nicely off 9,800-10,000USD (right at the 100day MA which will coincide with the longterm blue support line!). It all works out so beautifully.
The Bear Cases/Paths Are:
(i) We are in a descending channel. So, we see heavy resistance at the top.
BearPath (i): We cannot hold above 11,000USD which in my opinion is a sign of extreme weakness. We will see sub $9150 if we get turned around here and do not bounce off the blue line (very crucial line).
BearPath (ii): Resistance knocks us down hard at 12k.
BearPath (iii): We trade between 10-11k for August and break to the downside when the price action gets more and more squeezed (note, I think it is more likely that if we follow this path we break up not down).
---------
WELL there ya have it! As always this is not a recommendation to buy or sell. I just wanted to make a chart that hopefully can be as helpful to YOU and ME for this month :)
Comment any thoughts down below. I will update this as time moves on. As of writing, we have been trading above 11,000USD for about 20 minutes!
Take care,
jack
Note
Trading at $11,200! Looking more and more likely that we will see a big Bull V Bear fight at 11,800-12,000USD!Note
Any bearish moves (ie, those south of $9150) most likely mean we would trade sideways (below $9,000USD)-- accumulating for a move to new ATH's. That is, if you, like me, believe BTC will see new ATH's.Note
Getting to crucial levels in BTC... Those taking long positions may want to consider (now that we are in a potential turning point) waiting for a strong break through $12,000. At the time of writing this idea, BTC had just broke $11,000. Good luck!Note
I am about to go to bed. BTC over the next several hours is looking "OK"(...) if it can get back past 11,800USD. You can expect further downside if we break below $11,500.
Goodnight (& goodmorning for some ;) )
Will update my thoughts in the morning- comment yours below!
Note
Actually, looking at the 5minute chart--- BTC could go as low as 11,150USD in the next 8 hours if the bears take control. It is now trading at 11,690USD at time of this comment. Again, I would not enter new long positions unless we have a nice break past 12,00USD. Take care :)
Note
Yup... Still awake, not for much longer-- it is a week day for that matter! However, BTC is looking strong- stronger than I expected. I imagine longs are going up now? Perhaps a long now (@ 12,200USD) is not a bad idea since a big resistance was at 11,800USD just a couple hours ago.
Again-- This is not a recommendation to buy or sell. My chart is just here to help YOU make those decisions :)
Note
BTC trading at 11,700USD. We are at a point now where if we go down, $11,350. Are you thinking BTC will move up instead?
Let me know.
Note
If we instead go to the upside (Looking at the 5 min chart you can see a move is about to happen..).The upside short term target is $12,500USD.
I expect 11,350USD or 12,500USD by end of day!
Note
My $11,350 prediction has gone through perfectly on my 5 min chart. You're welcome ;)Note
Is BTC looking good-or what? We are riding above my support at the time of this comment. Possible its looking for a large move up. Will update later tonight. Gotta get above psychological-level of 12,000USD first.Note
We will see sub-10k levels soon. Will we bounce at 9800USD or slide further down?Note
Looks like we got a bounce perfectly where I predicted it to happen ;) Watch the chart.
Note
BTC has it's eyes set on 10,900USD at the time of this comment. Please look! Most (I think all) of my comment updates have been spot on at this point.
Show some love ;)
Note
*** We are testing my all important blue line!! Watch closely, a break below this line, to me signifies a large price reduction to follow. Opinion only.Note
Nice bounce at my blue line. I think we will see at least (the resistance) 10,900USD by end of the day.Note
We *did* hit that resistance perfectly, as I called it ;-)Note
BTC showing signs of weakness! A large drop under 10k would lead to further downside...Note
Tehe, who could have guessed the target of todays BTC run? Answer: The chart I made one month ago ;)
Note
However, take warning! What if this was a capitulation?! Could we on the verge of 15k? Watch volumes closely.
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