Short-term movement analysis: Remember, Hope is a good thing
Updated
After the Feb 13 - 20 bullrun, bulls still hope to form a giant inverse H&S pattern. And whales know it. They keep letting the hope grow by pumping the price from time to time; and they also drop it everytime bulls think they are getting their target.
As black arrows show, the bounces become stronger after every dump, showing bulls still have buying interest and fiat to buy the dips. Whales need to drain the power of bulls before suppressing price to a lower low. They are trying to keep the price in the "Hope Area" as long as possible so bulls will have motive to spend their money. It would be much easier for whales to short bitcoin after bulls run out of fiat.
I think it will be safe to trade bounces in the Hope Area in the following days. Bigger bounces may happen when it hits 10150 zone and 9700 zone. However, once the price leaves the Hope Area, it may go straight down to the lower support 8200 zone. It would be very dangerous trading bounces during the fall. 9300 will no longer be a strong support because it won't give people hope anymore.
Although I am pessimistic about the future of Bitcoin, I agree that there is chance that the meme Inverse H&S could be formed if more noobs are coming in the market. But I will not trade it before it is completed.
At last, I have observed some upward movement of the usage of BTC blockchain. If it keeps increasing in the following week, I would start believing the market is recovering. If not, I would still expect a lower low to happen in the near future.
For checking the number of transactions on BTC/ETH/LTC:
bitinfocharts.com/comparison/transactions-btc-eth-ltc.html
As black arrows show, the bounces become stronger after every dump, showing bulls still have buying interest and fiat to buy the dips. Whales need to drain the power of bulls before suppressing price to a lower low. They are trying to keep the price in the "Hope Area" as long as possible so bulls will have motive to spend their money. It would be much easier for whales to short bitcoin after bulls run out of fiat.
I think it will be safe to trade bounces in the Hope Area in the following days. Bigger bounces may happen when it hits 10150 zone and 9700 zone. However, once the price leaves the Hope Area, it may go straight down to the lower support 8200 zone. It would be very dangerous trading bounces during the fall. 9300 will no longer be a strong support because it won't give people hope anymore.
Although I am pessimistic about the future of Bitcoin, I agree that there is chance that the meme Inverse H&S could be formed if more noobs are coming in the market. But I will not trade it before it is completed.
At last, I have observed some upward movement of the usage of BTC blockchain. If it keeps increasing in the following week, I would start believing the market is recovering. If not, I would still expect a lower low to happen in the near future.
For checking the number of transactions on BTC/ETH/LTC:
bitinfocharts.com/comparison/transactions-btc-eth-ltc.html
Note
So it reached 10210 and bounced back to 10700 as I expected. I didn't load up under 10300 because I was too greedy and set my order at 10050-10150. I thought it would at least touch 10150 but it just kissed the upper end of 10150 zone and bounced back. Now I wake up and find it's too late to get in. I expect a dip coming and will buy around 9800.Note
They just won't let it happen. The resistance was strong. But hope is still there. I will trade some bounces around 10800 (happening), 10500, 10200. Now I am not so confident about the support 9800. It will be out of the Hope Area when price reaches it.Note
What's happening now is pretty similar to what happened back in Jan. 2014. No big crash near in the sight. The price will stay between 6000 - 12000 for a long time. We are entering a long boring bearish market. However, the market will recover faster than it was in 2014-2015. We will see the bottom at around $3000 maybe in mid or late part of the year. Good luck.Note
For short-term trading, bitcoin is making a bull flag on 4-hr chart. It tested 10800 a couple of times and the support seems strong. There might be another bull run tonight. Watch for breakout.Note
Here we go. Target 11k2, 11k5, 11k8. Unlikely to break 12k imo.Note
I might call it too early. Need some time to confirm the breakout.Note
Confirmed. Sorry for spamming updates.Note
Sold at 11350. 4% profit. Time to go to bed.Note
BTC made another bull flag on 4hr chart. Watch for breakout. It seems BTC wants to retest 11600 resistance.Note
The pump starts. Watch closely for entering.
We don't trade patterns. We draw them.
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