Long

Updated

Reaching last 2017 peak VS 2020 Halving

0. The above chart was made in view of the possibility that the four-year cycles of BTC is likely to change to three-year when BTC reaches the 2017 peak before 2020 Halving. If you look at the main chart, you can easily understand. Therefore, the explanation is omitted. This article is not for sell or buy. If you liked this idea, please, 'Thumbs up', 'Follow', 'Comment'~^^

< 2014 ~ 2017 > F1( 11488% ), A1( 87% ), B1( 43% ), C1( 54% ), D1( 66% ), E1( 1606% )

< 2018 ~ 2020 > F2( 2430% / 10359% ), A2( 71% ), B2( 38% ), C2( 57% ), D2( 69% ), E2( 305% / 1580% )

1. the comparison of indicator : 50MA, 100MA, 200MA

2. Current Coin Market Status
- Coin Market Cap : $ 325 Billion
- Bitcoin Dominance : 62.2%
- Volume by National Currencies : USD( 74.8% ), JPY( 14.7.0% ), KRW( 5.8% )

3. The Comparison of Coin Market Cap
- Coin Market Cap : $ 325 billion
- Stock Market Cap around the world : $ 50 trillion / 0.68%
- Korean Stock Market Cap : $ 1760 billion / about 18.5%
- Samsung Electronics Cap : $ 230 billoion < Coin Market Cap

4. Futures Expiration date
- CME : On the last Friday of every month at 4 pm
- CB0E : X

5. Korean Premium
- BTC(3.5%), ETH(3.5%), XRP(3.5%), *** GTO(28.0%), STORM(7.5%), GNT(5.5%)

6. Other Long-Term BTC Forecasts
- A similarity with the 2015 bottom &Influence of halving

- The rising curve by pattern

The die is cast! (the four-year cycle) (2)

- A similarity with the 2015 double bottom

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Comparison : 2018. 11. ~ 2019. 04.

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Long-term trend line, 50MA, Fibonacci 0.168

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bear markets or adjustment? On large frames, It can be seen that the bear markets in 2018 is continuing after rising due to technical rebound in 4K floor, and taking the resistance at Fibonacci 0.618. On my personal basis, If BTC price keep just 9.7K(bottom on July 2) until the next CME expiration date (July 27th), I believe that it will be a -30% adjustment, which was commonplace bullish markets in 2017.

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Large volatility on July CME expiration date after flag pattern

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By 2020, 20K or 7K?

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or Alts season like Dec 2015?

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9.18.(Fed Rate Cut), 9.24.(Bakkt), 9.30.(Wilshire ETF), 10.14(Bitwise ETF), 10.19(VanEck ETF), 11.01(China Digital Currency), ~2020(Fed Further Rate Cut, UK Brexit??)

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Good luck everybody!!

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Nearing the next halving, the emergence of the Golden Cross with 50MA and 100MA is likely to push prices above Fibonacci 0.618 and it will be a strong support level.

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(A Week) Just before completion of the Golden Cross with 50MA and 100MA

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The flow of assets with clear correlation

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1. Bitcoin

2. Total Market Cap

3. Altcoin Market Cap

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4. Dow Jones & Exchange Rate ( Up & Down )

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5. Gold ( 2001 / 2008 / 2020 )

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6. Wilshire 4500 ( Next Fibonacci Level )

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7. Unemployment Rate

8. 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity

9. Effective Federal Funds Rate

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2016.03. ~ (2016.10.) ~ 2017.01

2020.03. ~ (2020.10.) ~ 2021.01

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$ 250,000 ~ $ 320,000

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Inverse B/U = G/B

7DA(1010). B = G/72BF0(1625760)

7DE(1110). B = Gx1(1)

7E2(10010). B = GxA(1010)

★7E6(10110). B = Gx64(1100100)

7EA(11010). B = Gx3E8(1750)

7EE(11110). B = Gx2710(23420)

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Based on 46K, apply a fractal.

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