BTC Indecision; is it to the moon, or the Mariana Trench?
Updated
As it has done so many times in the past, BTC decided it was time to explode out of a bear shape. I covered this in my previous idea: 
We abandoned that trade as it hit our invalidation targets of a daily close above 8k. Since then it has shown some relative weakness; a failed breakout above 8.4k and now it's stuck between the 20EMA and 50MA.
A few things to notice that suggest we will see some more downside:
Now the question is whether on not this will result in a lower low, or just a pull back that is needed for a better crack at breaking the trendline. At this stage I'm not sure which is more likely; we will have to wait a few days (~1-4) before we can judge.
I outlined something similar in this idea
We abandoned that trade as it hit our invalidation targets of a daily close above 8k. Since then it has shown some relative weakness; a failed breakout above 8.4k and now it's stuck between the 20EMA and 50MA.
A few things to notice that suggest we will see some more downside:
- Daily TD 9
- Stoch RSI is overbought on the daily
- At the top of the daily BBands
- Rejected at the daily 50MA
- And up against the large log trendline
- Rejected at the 61.8 fib of the prior swing high
Now the question is whether on not this will result in a lower low, or just a pull back that is needed for a better crack at breaking the trendline. At this stage I'm not sure which is more likely; we will have to wait a few days (~1-4) before we can judge.
I outlined something similar in this idea
Note
I just noticed there's some hidden bullish divergence on the 4hrNote
There are some conflicting indicators between the 1D and 4HR timeframes:
There's a possibility that we see some upside over the next 4-8hrs while the RSI resets.
Note
Sorry for the multiple posts, but after looking at that again, I'm not 100% sure this is hidden bullish div -- which would indicate continuation -- or regular bearish div -- which would indicate a reversal.For now, I will stick with the 1D analysis as it's a little clearer.
Regarding opening a trade; I am waiting to see what happens at either the upper TL (~8.4k) or the lower TL (~6.9k). I won't be trading in this range as it's a little too messy.
Note
Not a whole lot has happened over the last 12-18hrs. The price action is a little weird on lower timeframes; a lot of square shapesI'm not really sure what to make of it. If anyone has some ideas I'd love to hear them. It's possibly due to the amount of margin that is in the market, and squeezing from either side to force stop losses or liquidation.
With that said, I don't really like looking at lower TF's; so lets put that to one side for the moment.
To me, all signs are still pointing to some downside before it can try to break the upper TL:
However, there are still a lot of shorts in the market, so there is a potential for another big squeeze, but I'd say that's a lower probability.
Anyway; have a good day / night and I'll update you in 8-12hrs
x
Note
Hi all,Still not a great deal going on:
A sideways channel could mean continuation to the upside, but the other indicators are still not convincing me it is bullish. So this is still very much a no-trade-zone for me. As I said previously, I'm still waiting for a break of the upper OR lower trendline to enter a trade.
Hopefully a clearer picture will emerge in the next 24hrs.
Note
Hi all.So the alts have been on an absolute tear as BTC stagnated a little. However, BTC has been steadily climbing throughout the last 24hrs. It is looking more likely that it will close outside of the upper log TL.
The indicators are still showing sell signals almost unanimously, but if BTC can impulse higher before a sell off happens, then it will likely result in the TL becoming support.
I think we may grind our way to 9k before a sell off happens. Lets keep an eye on things and get our money to long ready when there is a pull back.
Note
"Morning" everyone.We had a nice breach of the upper log trend line.
Since it has happened decisively, it really needs to close above 9k to maintain upward momentum.
I think we will have our answer -- Moon or the Marian Trench -- within a day or so, and at this stage I'm leaning "Moon".
As I said at the top, it was going to be a tricky place to trade between MA's. The most likely was down to the lower TL, but as we have seen, that hasn't eventuated. So lets wait for daily closes and HOPEFULLY, a pull back we can buy into.
Note
I'm definitely in the "bull" camp now. You can follow the new idea here: 
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