Bitcoin Outlook Hinges on these Three Factors
While US traders may be gorging their already bloated bellies with turkey and other fixings, the crypto market is still open! It's time we took a step back and analyzed some factors which may influence the price of Bitcoin and the broader crypto market for the duration of 2021 and on into 2022.
TLDR; Three reasons to be bullish of Bitcoin:
1. Strong Technicals
2. 3T market cap
3. Regulation (yes, this is a good thing)
Despite the pullback from highs, Bitcoin's technical analysis is strong overall on the longer term ("when in doubt, zoom out!"). It looks like we have an Elliott Wave double zigzag, terminating at highs. The retracement we saw down to the 50K's is thus a completely reasonable correction. Checking the Fibonacci's, we have a 0.618 retracement level at 53K, right under the lows we saw last week. From here, we anticipate a bounce to the 0.786 level just under 60K. After that, it depends on how we test 60K. As we have mentioned before, this is a serious barrier to higher levels. It is both psychologically and technically significant. If we reject it, this could mean we will take another dive past 0.618 to the 0.500 Fibonacci level at 48.6K. If we break it, we could be gunning for new highs and the beginning of another zig zag wave or 5-3 wave.
The Kovach OBV is also strengthening, though not to the full steam we saw with the previous rally. We have a green triangle on the KRI suggesting that we have good support at recent lows.
Other factors influencing crypto prices include the fact that we recently hit the 3T market cap (even though we've since retraced to about 2.8T). Our 5 year target is 10T, so we're about a third of the way there. We cracked the
1T barrier in January of *this year*, so this helps to put things in perspective.
Finally, regulators are taking interest in crypto which is actually a good thing. More formal regulations and guidelines will facilitate business interaction with crypto in the US.
TLDR; Three reasons to be bullish of Bitcoin:
1. Strong Technicals
2. 3T market cap
3. Regulation (yes, this is a good thing)
Despite the pullback from highs, Bitcoin's technical analysis is strong overall on the longer term ("when in doubt, zoom out!"). It looks like we have an Elliott Wave double zigzag, terminating at highs. The retracement we saw down to the 50K's is thus a completely reasonable correction. Checking the Fibonacci's, we have a 0.618 retracement level at 53K, right under the lows we saw last week. From here, we anticipate a bounce to the 0.786 level just under 60K. After that, it depends on how we test 60K. As we have mentioned before, this is a serious barrier to higher levels. It is both psychologically and technically significant. If we reject it, this could mean we will take another dive past 0.618 to the 0.500 Fibonacci level at 48.6K. If we break it, we could be gunning for new highs and the beginning of another zig zag wave or 5-3 wave.
The Kovach OBV is also strengthening, though not to the full steam we saw with the previous rally. We have a green triangle on the KRI suggesting that we have good support at recent lows.
Other factors influencing crypto prices include the fact that we recently hit the 3T market cap (even though we've since retraced to about 2.8T). Our 5 year target is 10T, so we're about a third of the way there. We cracked the
1T barrier in January of *this year*, so this helps to put things in perspective.Finally, regulators are taking interest in crypto which is actually a good thing. More formal regulations and guidelines will facilitate business interaction with crypto in the US.
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