Bitcoin: Low Volume Slow Motion Pump :)
Updated
Don't know what to make of all this. Simply moving up, but it's almost in slow motion with no real aggression or fights between bulls and bears.
Showed the wedge the other day, which looked pretty legit. Even if it wasn't a wedge, the resistance line was/is there for sure. But today me moved above it like it's not there. Now i don't mean that it should not have been broken, i mean like it was never there. Normally, should have seen like a short squeeze up or something, but instead slow movement.
For me, these kind of moves, as we have seen past days/week, are very hard to judge, because too many movements seem so random. What bothers me the most, is we are breaking levels, but volumes are clearly less than the summer rally of 2019. That rally was extreme, so it's normal volume then was higher, but it was 2x almost 3/4x of now. I find a low volume rally difficult to trust, but it is what is.
ETH here, showing an almost textbook bearish wedge in the making, with volume clearly dropping, but even this one seems almost meaningless.
The only pattern i am seeing past 2 weeks or so, is each time funding increases a lot, we do not make a correction as we almost always have done, we go sideways in a tight range until funding drops and then slowly move up to the next high/range.
I posted this update in my public channel 2 days ago:
Think if 9850/9900 breaks, bears have failed and we should see a counter move from bulls, meaning another wave up. But as mentioned, it's difficult at the moment. To me it feels as if i see some hidden signs from bears past days, but i really can't be sure about it. Could be noise, could be fake signs also. Can only know in hindsight. To me it simple though, made a big rally past weeks, we are at the highs, bulls are loosing momentum a bit (shape of the wedge, highs getting less high). So 3 options to me:
1) Basic bearish wedge, we dump
2) Basic bearish wedge with a fake breakout first and dump
3) Bear trap wedge, go sideways bit more and then a big short squeeze (green line).
So at the moment it's bit guessing. But, if we see sideways for few more days, close to the high, like we had at 9200/9600, then i might even turn bullish. In the mean time a favour a drop, but low time frame is a lot of noise. So day trading is not really an option i think. Think either a swing trade or scalping.
Looks as if option 2 is in play, but i don't think so, because normally things go much faster. Meaning a faster move up and agressive profit taking and/or shorting from the bears. So i would rather guess, that even if we drop, that as long as we stay above the 9800/9900, bulls are in favor.
Also mentioned in an update, that 9700/680 was an support level, i find it odd honestly to see that price bounced back up for a third time, exactly from this zone. Almost making it too easy for the bulls i would say.
So at the moment i can't figure out what the game plan is here. Only thing i can think of, since there seems to be so much control from the bulls (i think some whales), that maybe they are trying to keep pressure on the bears to eventually create a massive short squeeze. Only reason why i am thinking this, is because of the slow motion movement through resistance levels.
On the right chart you can also see that i have drawn a bull flag. Because maybe the wedge is just a coincidentally formed and it's actually just a bull flag. If that is so, we should have a target between 10200/600. When looking at the price action of past week, it would make more sense.
For the bears, i suggest sitting on your hands. Bitcoin is moving like the stock market has been moving the past 5 months, low volatility and only buying the dip. Trying to short the high is just very risky IMO, it's great to catch it but it can be very expensive. Don't forget, correction, the real correction, always happen in 2 waves, in an ABC. So my advice here is, wait for at least for wave A, which has to cross a significant support level, like level 1 here below and/or level 2 even. Then wait for wave B, giving you much better odds to short the high of B instead of the current rally. Since we don't know where it will end. For the bulls, i think a similar deal. Me personally would use the first level, but i am not a long term hodler, so i don't mind pushed out and potentially missing another rally. Think level 3 is a key level for the mid-term, but think would be a shame to see that break while still being in your long 100%. Scaling in and out is what i personally always do, decreasing risk and locking in some profit when possible, especially after such a big rally. Don't forget, when closing 30% for example, but BTC continues to pump, you don't loose money, you still earn with the remaining 70% (or whatever percentage you choose.
Looks like a parabolic shape on the low time frame, almost vertical already :)
Previous analysis:
Showed the wedge the other day, which looked pretty legit. Even if it wasn't a wedge, the resistance line was/is there for sure. But today me moved above it like it's not there. Now i don't mean that it should not have been broken, i mean like it was never there. Normally, should have seen like a short squeeze up or something, but instead slow movement.
For me, these kind of moves, as we have seen past days/week, are very hard to judge, because too many movements seem so random. What bothers me the most, is we are breaking levels, but volumes are clearly less than the summer rally of 2019. That rally was extreme, so it's normal volume then was higher, but it was 2x almost 3/4x of now. I find a low volume rally difficult to trust, but it is what is.
ETH here, showing an almost textbook bearish wedge in the making, with volume clearly dropping, but even this one seems almost meaningless.
The only pattern i am seeing past 2 weeks or so, is each time funding increases a lot, we do not make a correction as we almost always have done, we go sideways in a tight range until funding drops and then slowly move up to the next high/range.
I posted this update in my public channel 2 days ago:
Think if 9850/9900 breaks, bears have failed and we should see a counter move from bulls, meaning another wave up. But as mentioned, it's difficult at the moment. To me it feels as if i see some hidden signs from bears past days, but i really can't be sure about it. Could be noise, could be fake signs also. Can only know in hindsight. To me it simple though, made a big rally past weeks, we are at the highs, bulls are loosing momentum a bit (shape of the wedge, highs getting less high). So 3 options to me:
1) Basic bearish wedge, we dump
2) Basic bearish wedge with a fake breakout first and dump
3) Bear trap wedge, go sideways bit more and then a big short squeeze (green line).
So at the moment it's bit guessing. But, if we see sideways for few more days, close to the high, like we had at 9200/9600, then i might even turn bullish. In the mean time a favour a drop, but low time frame is a lot of noise. So day trading is not really an option i think. Think either a swing trade or scalping.
Looks as if option 2 is in play, but i don't think so, because normally things go much faster. Meaning a faster move up and agressive profit taking and/or shorting from the bears. So i would rather guess, that even if we drop, that as long as we stay above the 9800/9900, bulls are in favor.
Also mentioned in an update, that 9700/680 was an support level, i find it odd honestly to see that price bounced back up for a third time, exactly from this zone. Almost making it too easy for the bulls i would say.
So at the moment i can't figure out what the game plan is here. Only thing i can think of, since there seems to be so much control from the bulls (i think some whales), that maybe they are trying to keep pressure on the bears to eventually create a massive short squeeze. Only reason why i am thinking this, is because of the slow motion movement through resistance levels.
On the right chart you can also see that i have drawn a bull flag. Because maybe the wedge is just a coincidentally formed and it's actually just a bull flag. If that is so, we should have a target between 10200/600. When looking at the price action of past week, it would make more sense.
For the bears, i suggest sitting on your hands. Bitcoin is moving like the stock market has been moving the past 5 months, low volatility and only buying the dip. Trying to short the high is just very risky IMO, it's great to catch it but it can be very expensive. Don't forget, correction, the real correction, always happen in 2 waves, in an ABC. So my advice here is, wait for at least for wave A, which has to cross a significant support level, like level 1 here below and/or level 2 even. Then wait for wave B, giving you much better odds to short the high of B instead of the current rally. Since we don't know where it will end. For the bulls, i think a similar deal. Me personally would use the first level, but i am not a long term hodler, so i don't mind pushed out and potentially missing another rally. Think level 3 is a key level for the mid-term, but think would be a shame to see that break while still being in your long 100%. Scaling in and out is what i personally always do, decreasing risk and locking in some profit when possible, especially after such a big rally. Don't forget, when closing 30% for example, but BTC continues to pump, you don't loose money, you still earn with the remaining 70% (or whatever percentage you choose.
Looks like a parabolic shape on the low time frame, almost vertical already :)
Previous analysis:
Note
This is what i mean with ABC after a big rally, you always get a second chance. Even after that 2000 point dump from 13800 to 11800, you would have gotten a second chance at 13200 for an even bigger wave down. Note
Note
Also, don't know if anyone noticed from past week or 2, but the big spoof orders have NOT giving the same results as they have always done past 2 years. For the early followers, i mentioned these things back in 2017 even around the ATH. Since then, if we would see a buy spoof order, price would always drop eventually, sometimes in minutes, sometimes in a few hours. Now i have not been watching closely lately, but i have seen it several times lately as well, but NOW, price has only been going up. Think during 2019 it was a well known fact about the spoofing, so we were not seeing them so often anymore. I know i kept mentioning it every time i saw it, trying to tell as many people as i could and as many times as i could, just to make their job more difficult :).
But now, it seems as if they are using this info against us? So spoofing, but instead of dropping trapping bears who sell because of it and eventually squeeze them out as we have been seeing past week. If anyone followed it more closely, feel free to share your view on it.
Note
Some weakness past hours, broke up from that flag on the left but dropped back in. So could be bulls are loosing some momentum now. break of 10050/030ish could be a first support. Think if support on the left breaks, around 9900, bulls could get in more troubles, because think if that one breaks, we could get a test of 9700. Because a drop back in that channel/wedge, normally means bulls have failed to break up and that way creating a bull trap. So far bulls have been buying each dip past week or 2. So bears and bull need to watch for that moment when the dip doesn't get a big immediate bounce up. Because that would make things differently then. Don't know when the correction will start, but think that when it happens, it will be a big violent dump in seconds/minutes of maybe even 1000 points. As we have seen a year ago as well. Not giving anyone a chance to close longs or for bears to short, except for the whales who create it of course :).
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.