Education

SORRY FOR SPAMMING BITCOIN CHARTS BUT THIS IS BEAUTIFUL

Updated

I.
TOLD.
YOU.
SO.

On an "academic" perspective this is so beautiful, but first I want to celebrate. Because I saw it coming. I saw it all.
And who else did?

Daily crypto hate: Cyclical market cycles. A bull within a bear?

I of course predicted that ignorant people would tell me how wrong I am and "got burned".
So please note what I wrote on this chart in green on the mid-upper right area:
(This is just an example, we could also get a 1 year
bear market till 3000, then 6 months of bull, etc)

Here are ALL my public BLX charts.

BLX weekly charts:

Bitcoin. Ponzi's over. Trust me. RIP Hodlers.

Bitcoin testing resistance. Crypto as a whole way past it.

BLX daily charts:

Held back long enough. Posting my long entries now.

There is no cherry picking these are all of them. There is no "weekly and above charts" filter, so BLX is the closest thing.
And only BLX afaik has Bitcoin all time. I told people there would still be Bitcoin bubbles. But no 1 million.
Smaller bubbles... Technically if we make it to 13k it will be as big as 2013. 2013 was a > 4.236 extension and so is 12k.

Most crypto investors cannot figure out when I am on a 1 hour timeframe or monthly timeframe...
They just "assume" I am on the same as them, whatever it is. Most are clearly not traders.

I have way too many BTC posts to go filter them. And so many updates I was posting a ton 1 year ago.
Good thing I keep BLX clean enough. So. Here we have it.

SO, back to hyperwaves. Made a post about this before. Tyler Jenks is the one that gave it the name.
I just call them asset bubbles. Or super bubbles. They always behave the same manner.
It is over and 80% odds going back to phase 1 once a week closes below the phase 4 trendline.
According to him. But he only had a sample size of a few dozen.

What I can say is bubbles behave the same way, always.

Made a post about this:

HYPERWAVES. Amazon and Bitcoin live examples.

Got an idea about Bitcoin financial bubble describing it:

By the way... I found this screenshot in the idea. LOL. Once again...

Got a recent chart for Bitcoin with descriptions:

On the monthly chart:

Going to wait a few more days before posting that monthly chart.
No, I do not think we will go to zero in a straight line, and I am not 100% sure we go to zero zero.

We might thought...

Just look at BCH ...

11k to 17k was not phase 6 then?

I thought it could go to 20-30k even 100k, but phases 6 never go past ath right?

Note

Pretty sure I made this chart 1 year ago. So predictable.
Just can't tell what exact bottom and tops will be anddon't want stop losses of 50%.
Sometimes it is possible...

Note

I was wondering why I wasn't getting reactions from "the public".
Missed my chance to get proof in late 2017 and now we are near the peak my ideas are not listed on tradingview/ideas. Are you kidding me?
These mods...

Note

Oh if only I had a way to time this.
If only Bitcoin was obvious.

NO ONE knows what will happen. NO ONE.

- Every one in denial about their own IQ.

If someone calls tops since 3k and says he is waiting for a specific price or momentum to slow down, he obviously has been shorting since 3000 non stop.
(And when he was calling a 4k 3200 1800 or 1200 bottom since 20k he just kept buying?)

TFW you are incapable of comprehending probabilities and being unbiased.

Spends all of 2018 saying the bear market will bottom at 1 2 3k "PERMABEAR"
Spends all of 2019 saying the bull market will top at 6 10 13k "PERMABEAR"

Yup, that makes sense. Exact opposite variables exact same conclusion.
Pretty unbiased. And logical.

Note

Wanted to make a complicated update explaining Elliot Waves things but I'll just post this screenshot there.

If anyone follows my ideas other than crypto they will notice 2 third of my trades are 0.786 to 1 full retraces (countertrend), and 1 third are going with the trend on shallow retraces (as long as there is room to grow).

Sigh, this is just the same as I keep doing. With all the delusional fools added...
Typical back to normal. The highest probability of what happens after is going to wave 4 low (2015 accumulaton)... Hyperwave says we return to phase 1 (0-1000).

Wave C is also more extended than A.

This is really very typical. I see it over and over again.
I do not understand how people can keep behaving the same when we know about that, my only explanation is we live in a simulation, and not every one has "self-awareness". There are bots.

Of course, this could also be a bear market impulsive. A new trend to zero. 12345.
Since we retraced so far it makes a 12345 more likely.

Just like 2014 on a lower time frame (fractals):

COME ON. We cannot get a multi year bear market when it looks this obvious.
I hope we just go up, way faster. Or Fake volume exit scam and make it quick.
The path for top to 3k should be fast enough at least...

I closed my short almost entirely. This is ridiculous. I am keeping some because I want to buy and send moar BTC without full exposure. But other than this I am waiting.

Note

MoviePass is still my favorite chart. Will Bitcoin replace it?

Note

8 December BTC had 220,000 unconfirmed transactions.
Yesterday that number went to 100,000.

I do not have all exact numbers, I do not think precision is very relevant.

Wasn't LN supposed to fix it all?

Anyway, there are already a list of reasons (technical emotional psychological fundamental) that show this as potential top (just like 7-17 Dec 2017), this is just another 1 to add to the list.

There are no good reasons for this not to be the top (that I know of), only "might not be the top".

I will repeat the list:
Pros
- The huge number of unconfirmed transactions
- 4.236 extension (1.618^3) just like 2013 top, but not like 2017 (was 1.618^4)
- This looks like a parabolic top "phase 4"
- Market cycles psychology
- GBP of the USA is going down, stock market rejected ath
- Bitcoin rejected 0.786 "back to normal" after making an impulse 12345 since 2009 and the bear market looks like a new sustained trend rather than a correction
- All the Bitcoin being transferred and sold at exchanges by big players
- We had a 1 year trendy bear market and now we are 7 months into a vertical bull market.
- Idiots are buying on Bitmex with leverage... Has been a premium most of the parabolic move past 1-2 months...
- Momentum has slowed down on the 4 hour TF
- Momentum on monthly chart....

Cons
- The price has dropped like this in the middle of bull markets
- Alot of people think "the halving" is some prophetic event that will send the price up
- We retraced more than 0.5
- It "looks like last time" (self fulfilling prophecy)
- Price has kept going up for 9 years

Neutral
- Japan casinos are not going to open for at least another year
- Similar PA & sheep mind action to 2014 early in the bear market
- 10% of the planet bought. Did we run out of greater idiots?
- Early adopters do not believe in BTC anymore afaik. Not 100% sure.
- No fundamental value
- Idiotic solution to a problem that does not exist
- Brings back all the old problems back
- Most people invested today are complete ignorant idiots, so ignorant and so stupid it is actually hard to exchange words with them, even on totally unrelated and super simple subjects (so we can objectively say they are idiots). They misunderstand everything and assume all the time it is actually tiring/frustrating.

Need to wait and see:
- Hammer weekly candle? (I don't think it will happen)
- Goes up in ABC with weaker volume and momentum?

Note

Copy-paste of what I just said in my exit scam idea update:

More exit scams going on. Enjoy your russian roulette "investors".
Remember, if the exit scams do not happen at the very top to the cent, then it was all just FUD to report them.

This time around there are more exit scams, but also more exchanges.
Would not be surprised if every exchange minus Coinbase Poloniex Bitstamp CME(obv) Kraken Gemini Bittrex exit scams before 2020.

Note

As time passes we can start looking at the price action to try to guess where our odds are going to be the best to short.
You can't lose if you do this well. Well to this day. Might change eventually...

Bitcoin parabolic momentum got stopped once again.
The absolute elite, that is able to form coherant sentences, draw lines, spell their own name, and press a button (sad...) now are waiting for an entry.
As Bitcoin has always done, it should go up a little eventually, we should get our short entry in a week or so. Should be somewhere around 14k. I do not see a reason to hurry and just sell RIGHT NOW.

At the peak during euphoria the price went back up pretty quick...

If this is 2013 & 2017 peaks we would peak at 16k, but we ran out of greater fools and I think it is weaker now.

Well I just realized some simpletons told me this trade did not age well:

Can't lose shorting Bitcoin if trade well?

They linked it in another idea..

When I made a clear drawing and wrote "take profit here to eliminate risk" AND it broke bearish AND it went to my first target.

I don't understand. How can a living creature fail and tell me I lost money here???

There is a clear drawing and annotations and even an arrow if you cannot read.

How stupid are Bitcoin bulls exactly? How can anyone be this blind and ignorant...

You post short ideas say "wait for momentum to reverse" they come a few days later when price kept going up (momentum did not reverse) and tell you you lost all your money.

Apparently people have been THAT stupid for hundreds of years. The more you read about the public and its relation to investing, as well as (but not only) speculative frenzy, the more you keep seing the same patterns, the same arguments ("last time they said" "this is a new paradigm"). BUT HOW???

The expression dumb money did not come out of nowhere...

Note

Making lower lows...
Either going to be a buy or a sell if we see either of those:

Note

Phase 6 now...

Watch out for:

Maybe it goes up retest the TL again (I am not long I am short now), in a few weeks, at $12500, but it's not worth giving up profit to make a little bit more.
I'd use a trailing stop if I didn't already exit after it dropped from 10400.

Maybe it will bounce on ~5500, maybe it won't bounce on ~3500.
I don't really like these areas right now, idk.

It's going to get to 1800 & 1000 in like a hundred years.
So I think now is a good time to cash out and just spectate.

MrRenev

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