This Could be a Complete Wave 1 in BTC

Everything currently sits on the make or break levels for any reasonable bullish trade plan. We either make a low here or the odds of a bigger rally/low are significantly lower.

These are the times I love to bet. It looks impossible the idea can work, it pays over 1:10 RR and makes a lot of technical sense. I find when things look impossible but make technical sense, you want to bet on those. When you get them right, they''ll be the best trades.

If this was wave one, from it we could estimate what wave 2 would look like and once we know wave 2, we can roadmap the full Elliot wave.

Here's the plan for a sharp rally and then the drop to 50K.

Plan requires a low here. Any more and this is probably a bad idea and I'll cut losses.

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I think a really great feature for TradingView would be rankings based on results of trades posted (using the entry/stop/target tool).

Would make it a much more useful site if it was merit based.

As it is the first page rankings always seem to end up the same every time there's any sort of move down.

100K: BTC heading up 150%. Hope you're ready!
90K: BTC low IN. Bears going to get smashed!!!!
85K: THAT'S IT GET READY FOR THE BULL RUN!!!!

79K: BTC may go down 2%.

And these still end up voted to the top... ?

IDK if it's shill boosting or it's just the sad state of affairs. But merit ranking would shift up that front page real quick.

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Like 70% of the time they miss the 2% short target. Which is impressive, in a sense.

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I'd predict 80% of the front page regulars would probably never hit the front page again if it was merit ranked.

Something to chew over.

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If TradingView did this, those who believe themselves to have demonstrable skill would be far more incentivised to used the site regularly.

Right now, it's largely click-baits and algo gamers.

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Would seem like an easy feature to implement. Link up the trade tool with a database. Link up the manual exit with the database to grab prices of non stop/target trades and then rank these on metrics of win rate, risk adjusted and pure return - all based on a fixed risk per trade. Then people could select their preferred metric for success from a dropdown and the front page is full of +EV ideas.

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There could be a dropdown for popular ideas if this is desired for some reason ... but it'd be good to have profitable ideas also.

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The problem is there tends to be an anti correlation between flamboyance and confidence and skill level.

If you do something 1000s of times you know the limitations of it. You know most things tend to split at best 7/10 odds. On your very best stuff, you're wrong 1/3 of the time (and most win rates are lower on higher RR).

So once you know that and you want to express yourself honesty, you do that in a very plain and non sexy way.

But if you don't ... then you write all sorts of hyped up nonsense. Which I guess is more exciting to read.

And I do suppose this is how it will stay until we get a really messy market where people accept they do not actually know the future.

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Like, messy for years. It will take some time.

It's very deep rooted now.

Order cancelled

ABORT. Exiting into the rally. I thnk I have this terribly wrong.

holeyprofit

We may be inside of a crash event to 3000 in SPX.

Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx

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holeyprofit

We may be inside of a crash event to 3000 in SPX.

Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx

Also on: