Is it time for a double top? I made a slight modification to the unconfirmed downward trend line, the dashed blue, The dashed red is a confirmed trend marking the current rally. Top resistance is at $490 slightly lower than the blow-off top 5 weeks ago. Effectively we are still in the wedge I previously spoke of in an add-on note. I have to admit this rally has been surprisingly healthy with rising averaged volume along with a rise in price. A break to the upside beyond $500 would be a blast-off point for the next major move up (beyond $1200). On the less positive side, the rally is getting ahead of itself. with a two week surge that is begging for a retracement back to the trend line. A retracement would create a classic double top which traditionally is an omen. A downward break through the trend line would be setup for a major move down. The panic zone is still in the below $275 range.
Over the next few weeks I expect wedging action between the hashes. A break either way can occur. Study the volume moves on the daily chart for clues. I'm short term Neutral and very long term bullish. I don't think the market is ready to blast off in the next two months and I fully expect some bottom testing action.
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