Black Swan Incoming (Part 1)
Updated
This is the start of a series I will be publishing for the rest of the year. I will focus 100% on trying to do the impossible and predict a narrow timeframe of a potential black swan event.
**The series will end and this theory will be invalidated if we break and close a weekly above the previous weekly high at 75k.**
**Fear and Greed Index (alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/)**
As you can see, we only have data from 2018. Nevertheless, we have data on the last bull market and rallies since then. As we can see, the index will print lower highs before rallies and bull markets.
**What we have now is a break of a multi-year uptrend on the index and currently putting in a lower low, which is not a good sign at all.**
**2Week MACD BEARISH CROSS**
The MACD has crossed bearish on the 2W timeframe five times. One out of the five times, it was a false signal, and that was the crash in May 2021 down to 30k. The rest of the time, when this signal fires off, Bitcoin from that candle close on average moves down 63%.
TOPPING DISTRIBUTION FRACTAL APPEARS
I have covered this fractal many times on my channel; you can probably find more than ten publications just on this fractal.
Why are we seeing a double-top distribution fractal again play out at the top of rallies? How many times are they going to use it? These three occasions, you can see they all happened with very similar timing from peak to peak and the first wave down.
Volume Block and Bayesian Trend
The Bayesian Trend is currently giving a 41% probability of a move higher from this point. As I'm writing this, Bitcoin has just hit the 0.618, which happens to be the level with a dominant sell order block. It's a classic move, guys: double-topping pattern into a 0.618 retracement rollover, nothing new.
Crash Zone Explained
Here is why I think "if" a black swan happens, this is the timeframe where it's most likely to happen. We have US elections, the first possible rate cut, and the start of my Fib time.
As you can see, this Fib sequence predicted the last black swan event, which was the Covid Crash. It is a very powerful sequence for predicting Bitcoin macro pivot points a year. Last year, unfortunately, was the first time it failed. Nevertheless, I still keep an eye out during these periods.
Fed cuts are not bullish, especially after long pauses above 5%. Last time we had rates at 2% when we started cutting, a multi-month downtrend began which led to the Covid crash.
NAS100 above.
**BTCBTC: Spent Volume Lifespan 7y-10y**
The total transfer volume of coins that were last active between 7y and 10y ago.
Always a useful tool to see what the big boys are doing and what we see is something pretty shocking.
Big volume in these wallets can be connected to major pivot points for Bitcoin in the past. So the largest volume output recorded before 2024 was 1600 BTC.
In 2024...............
It's the same chart, just included 2024. The output volume in June 2024 was 13,900 Bitcoin. I double-checked it; it's the reason now all the other pivot points look like a small blip on the chart.
Insane, 13,900 Bitcoin moved at an all-time high, and then we get a big move down. I guess this metric still works perfectly at finding tops.
**Crash Targets**
As you can see, we have two main diagonal supports to look at. Honestly, I do not trust any diagonal supports, but the yellow macro one has three cycle low hits, so it holds a lot of weight.
The second one, which is the orange dotted line, has two hits and will most likely fail. In my experience, when we have a very clear diagonal support and it comes down for its third touch, it breaks because everyone is looking at the same thing. It's that simple: the entire space is looking at it, so therefore it breaks and everyone gets rekt.
The golden pocket sits at 35-37k and at the macro yellow support. This is where I would say the bottom is most likely in.
If the black swan plays out all the way, we would most likely see the CME gap at 21k close. This would most likely be a hammer candle that would last seconds.
**Invalidation**
If Bitcoin were to break the previous swing high at 74k and close a weekly above it, this entire TA would be invalidated. Even if it closed above 0.618 at 67k, the chance of invalidation would increase dramatically.
**The series will end and this theory will be invalidated if we break and close a weekly above the previous weekly high at 75k.**
**Fear and Greed Index (alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/)**
As you can see, we only have data from 2018. Nevertheless, we have data on the last bull market and rallies since then. As we can see, the index will print lower highs before rallies and bull markets.
**What we have now is a break of a multi-year uptrend on the index and currently putting in a lower low, which is not a good sign at all.**
**2Week MACD BEARISH CROSS**
The MACD has crossed bearish on the 2W timeframe five times. One out of the five times, it was a false signal, and that was the crash in May 2021 down to 30k. The rest of the time, when this signal fires off, Bitcoin from that candle close on average moves down 63%.
TOPPING DISTRIBUTION FRACTAL APPEARS
I have covered this fractal many times on my channel; you can probably find more than ten publications just on this fractal.
Why are we seeing a double-top distribution fractal again play out at the top of rallies? How many times are they going to use it? These three occasions, you can see they all happened with very similar timing from peak to peak and the first wave down.
Volume Block and Bayesian Trend
The Bayesian Trend is currently giving a 41% probability of a move higher from this point. As I'm writing this, Bitcoin has just hit the 0.618, which happens to be the level with a dominant sell order block. It's a classic move, guys: double-topping pattern into a 0.618 retracement rollover, nothing new.
Crash Zone Explained
Here is why I think "if" a black swan happens, this is the timeframe where it's most likely to happen. We have US elections, the first possible rate cut, and the start of my Fib time.
As you can see, this Fib sequence predicted the last black swan event, which was the Covid Crash. It is a very powerful sequence for predicting Bitcoin macro pivot points a year. Last year, unfortunately, was the first time it failed. Nevertheless, I still keep an eye out during these periods.
Fed cuts are not bullish, especially after long pauses above 5%. Last time we had rates at 2% when we started cutting, a multi-month downtrend began which led to the Covid crash.
NAS100 above.
**BTCBTC: Spent Volume Lifespan 7y-10y**
The total transfer volume of coins that were last active between 7y and 10y ago.
Always a useful tool to see what the big boys are doing and what we see is something pretty shocking.
Big volume in these wallets can be connected to major pivot points for Bitcoin in the past. So the largest volume output recorded before 2024 was 1600 BTC.
In 2024...............
It's the same chart, just included 2024. The output volume in June 2024 was 13,900 Bitcoin. I double-checked it; it's the reason now all the other pivot points look like a small blip on the chart.
Insane, 13,900 Bitcoin moved at an all-time high, and then we get a big move down. I guess this metric still works perfectly at finding tops.
**Crash Targets**
As you can see, we have two main diagonal supports to look at. Honestly, I do not trust any diagonal supports, but the yellow macro one has three cycle low hits, so it holds a lot of weight.
The second one, which is the orange dotted line, has two hits and will most likely fail. In my experience, when we have a very clear diagonal support and it comes down for its third touch, it breaks because everyone is looking at the same thing. It's that simple: the entire space is looking at it, so therefore it breaks and everyone gets rekt.
The golden pocket sits at 35-37k and at the macro yellow support. This is where I would say the bottom is most likely in.
If the black swan plays out all the way, we would most likely see the CME gap at 21k close. This would most likely be a hammer candle that would last seconds.
**Invalidation**
If Bitcoin were to break the previous swing high at 74k and close a weekly above it, this entire TA would be invalidated. Even if it closed above 0.618 at 67k, the chance of invalidation would increase dramatically.
Note
Bitcoin Daily closed under the 8/1 Gann Fann , watching closely important level.
Note
In 9 days and 14hours(monthly chart) this signal will confirm , will it be a false signal like 2017 (orange circle)?
Note
Alot of buzz lately about the buy signal flashing a "buy" on the daily timeframe on the "hash ribbon" indicator , lets not get too excited just yet since most are forgetting that it gives false signals on the "daily" timeframe best to wait for the weekly signal to confirm, it is for sure one of the best indicators for Bitcoin.Note
Weekly now flashes buy , confirms in 2days
Note
Buy confirmed on the hash ribbons , its never failed before , lets see how it plays out
Note
58k to close Gap
Note
and GAP closed just like clockwork.Note
oh boy , part 2 incomingNote
Part 2 
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