Aloha from gorgeous Hawaii!
I wanted to circle back on my previous BTC charts and make a few comments based on the updated price action.
The main chart shows similarities to the 2017/2018 bull run and while the first three movements went as projected, BTC deviated on the 4th and moved up instead of dropping. Since then BTC formed a descending triangle (yellow) where it broke below the support and the long term cross section support (dotted purple line). If you read my other charts and updates I mentioned that it was important to see how BTC would react to that support. By breaking below it mimics the 5th and 6th movements that happened in the 2017/2018 bull run and we're currently experiencing it now. I posted an update about it in my bearish divergence chart and am using a laddered reentry throughout the reversal zone that extends down to the green baseline supports. It's important to note that the reversal zones were carried over from my bump and run reversal chart and those percentages don't carry the same weight because the double top formation morphed into a complex head and shoulder pattern. That has different reversal zones and percentages that I don't have access to since I'm on vacation and didn't bring my secret weapon with me (cough Bulkowski's Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns cough). Nevertheless, BTC should reverse by the 6th movement (~$6,400) and eventually retest the upper trend line resistance (green) that spans from the 2017 ATH to present. The RSI indicates there could be further downward movement before BTC reaches oversold territory and the MACD is a coin flip on whether or not BTC continues lower or finds support here.
The yellow lines (solid and dotted) as should act as resistance as BTC eventually claws its way up to retest the upper trendline resistance.
I will post an update shortly using my other charts to discuss the worst case scenario if BTC break below the baseline supports.
I wanted to circle back on my previous BTC charts and make a few comments based on the updated price action.
The main chart shows similarities to the 2017/2018 bull run and while the first three movements went as projected, BTC deviated on the 4th and moved up instead of dropping. Since then BTC formed a descending triangle (yellow) where it broke below the support and the long term cross section support (dotted purple line). If you read my other charts and updates I mentioned that it was important to see how BTC would react to that support. By breaking below it mimics the 5th and 6th movements that happened in the 2017/2018 bull run and we're currently experiencing it now. I posted an update about it in my bearish divergence chart and am using a laddered reentry throughout the reversal zone that extends down to the green baseline supports. It's important to note that the reversal zones were carried over from my bump and run reversal chart and those percentages don't carry the same weight because the double top formation morphed into a complex head and shoulder pattern. That has different reversal zones and percentages that I don't have access to since I'm on vacation and didn't bring my secret weapon with me (cough Bulkowski's Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns cough). Nevertheless, BTC should reverse by the 6th movement (~$6,400) and eventually retest the upper trend line resistance (green) that spans from the 2017 ATH to present. The RSI indicates there could be further downward movement before BTC reaches oversold territory and the MACD is a coin flip on whether or not BTC continues lower or finds support here.
The yellow lines (solid and dotted) as should act as resistance as BTC eventually claws its way up to retest the upper trendline resistance.
I will post an update shortly using my other charts to discuss the worst case scenario if BTC break below the baseline supports.
Note
Here's the bearish divergence chart. As you can see I based the critical support zone on the 0.236 Fib and red baseline support which offers a margin of error of +/- 10% from the 0.236 Fib of $4,996. I believe BTC will reverse by the 6th movement support zone and if it doesn't the critical support should hold. There's no point in discussing what it means if it doesn't hold so we'll cross that bridge if and when it happens.
Note
Yes, it's the chart that called the 2019 top: the infamous bump and run reversal. The chart that "top authors" (who have gone into hiding since they got recked with their 114K/2 dA m00n predictions) mocked and didn't heed despite my persistent posting of it on their "ideas" (if you call flip flopping every day a new idea). Yeah, I'm dancing on their graves because revenge is a dish best served cold and I'm still here locked and loaded (and loading) for a new wave of profits, enjoying sunrises and sunsets on some of the most beautiful beaches in the world while they're radio silent feeling the effects of margin trading gone bad wondering where they went wrong. It's simple: they're not as clever as they think they are and weren't worthy of being called a top author, plain and simple. Most of you reading this started following me because you were tired of reading the crap they passed along as charting/technical analysis and if you've followed my charts and updates we're in damn good shape while they're having a hard time selling subscriptions for their signal service.
As for this chart, it loosely applies to what's happening right now despite BTC trading within its zones that were created back in June. Why did I include it as an update? Simple: it demonstrates the process of proper technical analysis and charting. This chart started it all. As the market changed more charts were created and updated but they all cross referenced this chart because it's a textbook example of solid fundamentals. Since this chart I made three others that analyzed different considerations for BTC and updated each accordingly. That's three charts since I posted this one in June. Why is this important? Because if a chart is worth a damn there's no need to post a new one every day or every week. I'd remember that the next time you take a "top author" at their word. After all, if they change their tune on a daily/weekly basis it's no surprise that they are about as accurate as a coin flip.
I've spent enough time away from the surf so best wishes on your trades.
Hopefully BTC doesn't test the crit support and much Aloha.
Trade closed: target reached
Fuck tradingview's shit interface. I spent over an hour writing a detailed update just to lose it all because I accidentally clicked off the popup trying verify some numbers from another chart. I don't have the time to rewrite it so basically here's the TLDR: When BTC pumps 30% in a day because of President Li's remarks about blockchain tech, I'm selling off all positions. I'll buy the throwback into support or wait for a new trading opportunity because it's unnatural for BTC to move this much given how poor the market sentiment has been. The market was poised to reverse but if it uses something as stupid as Li's comments to do so there's going to be a lot of reactive traders with buyer's remorse to bring BTC's price back to reality.
Note
BTC is approaching the 50MA/trendline turned support. This is where I start my laddered reentry. Next target is around ~$11,300. If support fails next major support is in the high $6k range with the bottom trend line and Fib support.
Note
Here's the updated snapshot of the chart showing the reentry and target zones.
Note
Up until yesterday BTC was poised to stay above the 50MA and upper trendline resistance and move up to the next level of resistance and into the target zone. Since then it's broken below both and I expect further downward movement. Perhaps the most telling signal is how alts dumped hard and heavy across the board. While I expect a small recovery, it seems every time alts suffer a coordinated drop and BTC remains relatively stable that it's a sign for BTC to drop and alts to get slaughtered. Given that outlook it's better to trade on the safe side so I've exited all my positions.
I may reenter if BTC finds support at the bottom of the descending wedge reversal formation and I've revised my target to reflect such a move. It's possible BTC may be headed towards the current rally's baseline support and it's important to include that in the trade setup. For now, it's back to wait and see what happens next.
Trade active
Price is now oversold on the RSI and a spinning top reversal candle is forming on the baseline support. Considering the prior reentry zone this would form a double bottom if it breaks out of the descending wedge which further strengthens the likelihood of moving into the target zone.
Trade closed: target reached
BTC has entered the revised target sell zone so I'll be exiting all positions and wait for a new setup.
This doesn't mean BTC won't go higher. In fact I believe it will but it's important to stay disciplined and trade according to plan. Remember, no one ever lost money selling at a profit.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.