Bitcoin due for over 50% correction or forming wave 4 triangle?

Hello.
Have been studying, learning and viewing the charts.
Hoping to share this idea as a current view of the market from a student.
Feeling that the run from $3000 to $13800 may have found exhaustion.
If we break above the 50 ema on the hourly chart around $11600 then I think it is possible
that we are finishing a triangle in sub wave 4 before the last impulse.
Personally I think we are in sub wave 2 and are going to correct over 50% during a WXY

Alternate estimate:

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Still feels to me like we are finishing a flat but that the flat wouldnt have a target low enough to satisfy Elliott wave rules.
I think we will form a double three with X starting at $9k and Y starting at
leading us down to $7250 which i find is a fib confluence zone.
Hitting the WXY 1:1 ratio and the 61.8% retracement

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Updated the Zig Zag to fit the 3-7-11 Swings concept

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Also made the Zig Zag a 5-3-5 as it should be

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Ready for the flat to end in the next couple days

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Flat (3-3-5) finishing up

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Cleaner on the 4 hour chart

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My timing & target was pretty close
Thinking we play in a range for a few days. Possible triangle formation.
Looking for price to drop closer to $10k then eyeing

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To from here to finish off the rest of the month
I thought $10k would hold so I jumped in early there
Held all the way down thinking $9500 would be my invalidation number
as 61.8% retracement fib level was there.
Added more from bank since I jumped in early.
Another lesson in why I need to wait for confirmation.
The X leg is tough to plan

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I was tired when I typed 61.8% instead of 78.6%

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Someone is really messing with my emotions!
Not sure by the 31st will happen now.
Still feeling we have to break upwards from here some

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Unforeseen market manipulation
Whale had 4k BTC sold on Binance, not sure if any other exchange activity by them.
Back to trying to break upward again

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Still estimating we are in an ABC Any Three of a WXY
Estimating we will pivot in a few days around $11700
but the target is the supply line (Gann 8/1)
Time cycle caught the change of charactor
Work keeps me from actively posting

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Possible Ending Diagonal

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KondrackiKarl

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KondrackiKarl

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