Bitcoin Bullish Wedge or Retest Former Up Trend
Updated
So wedge is/was playing out, today a breakout, but so far the volume is weak. Wasn't there to watch it live, so cant judge if it was a rally or a short squeeze. But based on low volume, would say short squeeze. Volume on spot is even VERY low.
That trend line on the left, don't think i have shown it before, but wasn't sure of it's value. Now with this short squeeze, seems it could just be a retest of former support line. If so, would be bad news i think.
On the right we can see the wedge plus the breakout. As mentioned, the low volume is not very promosing. So there is a chance the high is already set. As mentioned 2 days ago, i gave 3 versions, with the lower high version being the weakest one. I was thinking more of 9300/400, but in theory it could also be just this.
Normally, if the wedge would fail, it could even take days before a real move down happens. So don't think bulls should be too scared already here. It is allowed to see a basic retest to that green zone. Ideally max 8900/950, but 8850 is in theory allowed as well. A break of that level suggests bulls are not very strong.
On the upside, seems that red line is what the bulls need to break. It's at around 9700ish now, but normally, either the bears really defend it and keep it below 9400/600, to make a clear lower high. Because I think if the 9700ish gets touched, it will probably break. So, if we break 9500/600, good chance 9700 will break and if THAT would happen, think also a good chance we see the bulls attack the 10K again. Don't want to get ahead of things, but think if the 10K breaks, it will probably cause a big short squeeze.
For the rest, i mentioned my view 2 days ago, i suggest to read that again. In summary, i am still a bit skeptical because it was taking a bit too long to break the 10K, especially because of all the new accounts that have been opened at exchanges.
But bears have been the weaker than the bulls. So as long as we don't see that move as i described 2 days ago, i can't become a confident bear. Anything slow and small on the bearish side, has become bullish the past 2 months. So as long as we don't see a change in that pattern, think the bulls are still in favor. But this wedge could give us the answer though, feels as if it might tell us what the trend the coming weeks will be.
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Previous analysis:
That trend line on the left, don't think i have shown it before, but wasn't sure of it's value. Now with this short squeeze, seems it could just be a retest of former support line. If so, would be bad news i think.
On the right we can see the wedge plus the breakout. As mentioned, the low volume is not very promosing. So there is a chance the high is already set. As mentioned 2 days ago, i gave 3 versions, with the lower high version being the weakest one. I was thinking more of 9300/400, but in theory it could also be just this.
Normally, if the wedge would fail, it could even take days before a real move down happens. So don't think bulls should be too scared already here. It is allowed to see a basic retest to that green zone. Ideally max 8900/950, but 8850 is in theory allowed as well. A break of that level suggests bulls are not very strong.
On the upside, seems that red line is what the bulls need to break. It's at around 9700ish now, but normally, either the bears really defend it and keep it below 9400/600, to make a clear lower high. Because I think if the 9700ish gets touched, it will probably break. So, if we break 9500/600, good chance 9700 will break and if THAT would happen, think also a good chance we see the bulls attack the 10K again. Don't want to get ahead of things, but think if the 10K breaks, it will probably cause a big short squeeze.
For the rest, i mentioned my view 2 days ago, i suggest to read that again. In summary, i am still a bit skeptical because it was taking a bit too long to break the 10K, especially because of all the new accounts that have been opened at exchanges.
But bears have been the weaker than the bulls. So as long as we don't see that move as i described 2 days ago, i can't become a confident bear. Anything slow and small on the bearish side, has become bullish the past 2 months. So as long as we don't see a change in that pattern, think the bulls are still in favor. But this wedge could give us the answer though, feels as if it might tell us what the trend the coming weeks will be.
Don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Previous analysis:
Note
Bitcoin has entered that red zone around 9400/600, so think we might get an answer coming 24 hours on whether this wedge will succeed or not. On the left i have shown the wedge from half year ago, which eventually accelerated. The blue zones are similar, both at that first resistance zone (which was 9200 for Bitcoin this time).
Volume is still quite low, but volume was very low then as well, so that doesn't say it all it seems. I do think however, if we continue to go up, but in small steps, seeing resistance in this 9500/9600 zone, then we should consider a lower high is possible. Based on the previous wedge, it shows the next push up has to be convincing, so it should break 9600. If that would happen, than i think what i mentioned yesterday could play out.
So, if we see hesitation coming 24 hours, maybe 48, it could turn down again. If we see a big pump above 9600/700, think market could show more bullish action. Short term seems 9330/40 has to hold for the bulls. If that breaks, 9200ish could also give support. But to keep momentum on bull side, think 9300/50 has to hold.
Note
Yesterday i updated that we had some resistance at the 9500/600 zone, but no weakness yet. Below 9340 would get little tricky and above 9400 momentum on the bull side. Since we went up a tiny bit but got rejected. Now at the moment, still bull are in favor, but now things are getting a bit weaker. So it looks as if the 9600ish might be a big resistance here. That trend line on the right seems to be real as well. So if that one breaks, we could see a bigger correction. Several support levels between 9400 and 8900ish. I think a break of 9340 might already be a real sign of bulls loosing control of the bullish wedge. Below the 9150ish, think the wedge might be out of play. Key level is probably around 8800/8900
Note
Forgot, i have drawn a bull flag on the left, even though there is a little bit of weakness here (trend line also broke now), bulls can still keep control if they kan form a bull flag, would say for a bull flag, maybe max 9300). IF we get above 9450ish, think the trend line break is probably invalidated again
Note
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