Long

Updated

Capitolation ongoing. Likely bear trap unfolding. Buy the dip.

Capitulation ongoing: announced by Hash Ribbons and MA20/W - MA100/W "death cross" few days ago and now confirmed.

Bottom fishing is pointless.
Taking advantage of panic is key.

While keeping risk under control is paramount here due to uncertainty (3AC, Census, BlockFi, ...) rules, good R:R insist here.
Playing my cards, will evaluate the outcome within few weeks.
More to come.

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Fib nailed already (17,7k).

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Dominance is interesting.

While not far from support (bottom of ascending channel) it may close at FIB 0.618 of last leg up with a hammer.

Check on close.

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1000$ higher than operning post and 2500$ higher than reference FIB.
Remember to protect your position (always!).

Enjoy.

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[Intraday]

MInd the risk.
Channels intersection may squeeze price.

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Went through fine.

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Anyway, ascending channels usually break down. Looking forward to some sideways and pullback. (Ending intraday considerations here)

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Till then inverted H&S stays possible.

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Lost channel and 20k test imbound.

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Pretty boring PA. Let's zoom a bit:

Awaiting breakout of triangle and CME futures close in the afternoon.

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Still waiting.
We're about to see whether we can raise from here or a further leg down is required.

Time is ticking.
The longer it takes the worse the chance to have a proper preakout.

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If things turn bad we have a belt of support in the 19k, then the low area.
Anyway, no hurry, let's have the market pick its move first.

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Looks weak, watch it.

See you after WE ;)

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No clear breakout.

Crucial week ahead, last of june.
I'd expect high volatility coming back.

Protect your positions

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As you may notice BTC.d reached again bottom of the channel (support).

Hence id' expect volatility along the week and possibly spiking.

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We've seen some movement already.

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Looking forwad to monthly close.
BTC is hitting lower bound of monthly BB for the first time ever.

That's considered strong support.

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Big mess with 3AC liquidation and Compass mining problems.
More fuel for bears.

Let's see.

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Follow up to saturday chart:

Unsurprisingly price moved to liquidity area after failing triangle breakout.
This was expected.

What should be chekced is the degree of support this area will provide.
Today we had 2 bad news: ETF (further) denial and pretty bad "Travel rule" news for EU. It adds up to A3C and Compass issues.

It's a big mess.
Hence we're looking for further opportunities here.

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Recurring pattern.

Not all sellers, somebody's carefully buying.
Let's see what's next ...

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Liquidity area update:

Other that bottom being at 18,9 instead of 19,1 that's it.
Awaiting a breakout (look at close, not at wicks).

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No change so far. Meanwhile:

Awaiting a blue dot within next few weeks.

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Next week will likely be the 13th of a red TD count.
Meaning drastical increase of odd of reversal.

On D congestion phase begun, an impulse will come next.

I'd like to see price to move towards 20,5k, for a re-test of middle of BB.
Then i'd watch for a likely upside breakout.

Fingers crossed.

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If so look at how Bollinger bands will expand.We would like to see the LOWER BB expand noticeably and further than the upper one.

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FInally, a look at dominance on W:

Support still holding, if so we should see a bounce.

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The picture.

We have to avoid confirmation of that bearish pennant or achieve a fakeout.
I'd expect high volatility soon. Brace.

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Good, but let's see close.
Parabolic SAR turned already.
Volume rising, but still so-so.

A higher high is needed in order to reach an then possibly overcome the big hurdle: MM200/W at about 22,5k.

It's still a long call from here.
Not excluding a pullback to middle of daily BB, but hope to see further signs of strength by weekly close.

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Zooming on opening post:

Spot on so far, but still a long shot from under MM200/W.
Let's see.

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Anyway, still in CONGESTION for now.

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At resistance: upper bollinger band + MA200/W

Likely a pullback.

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Here is the pullback to bisector of BB.

Let's look at close and ignore wicks, as a further pullback to edge of triangle cannot be excluded.

Anyway, reaction needed from this area or back to the drawing board.

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Back to accumulation zone and not looking good.

Anything below 18,9k would rise red flags.
Use caution.

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18906$. Awesome ;)

Anyway, letting alone price, time-wise Willy says: fasten your seatbelts.

Buckle up.

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21k mark hit, but likely a further short term pullback.

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Pullback and breakout of trendline achieved.

Now price well within resistance area.
MA200/W at about 22,7k.

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Short term further sideways above 21k likely.

Anyway, in order to pierce MA200/W price needs a daily close ABOVE upper BB and good volume. Failing that a broad sideways within the ascending channel would become increasinly more likely.

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Near upper BB. Toughest area.
From here is either breakout or strong rejection.

Remember to protect your profit, we're +25% up from entry.
Have a TP, remember i give entry points, but exit is up to you.

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This is a simple zoom (TF 3D) in of the original post, with the first arrow:

Basically reached the first target area.
Still i struggle to see volume, so caution is needed.

Current volume so far looks not enough for an extension (second arrow) and there's a risk of a mere technical pullback unless a further push moves volume.

Be cautious from here onwards.

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The original chart, for reference.

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Come on, BItcoin, time is up.
Be nice.

Show a big fat green candle before it's too late ....

Trade closed: target reached

First target technically reached.

About 1 month later and very few days earlier than expected.
Now eyes on close and volume, in order to evaluate odds of an extension.

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BTW: plz disregard the "trade closed" part.
I've no other way to mark "target reached".

50% of trade still ongoing since there were 2 targets originally.
As usual, it's up to you when to exit trade.

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24k met and exceeded too.

4H on 9th green TD count candle and bearish divergence.
I'd say that time-wise some significant pullback is nearing, unless a spike up on RSI cancels it any soon:

You know the drill, protect your position.

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Here we go, close to the 22k mark.
There's support just over there, let's see if it holds.

1H:

4H still heavy.

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Original chart, zooming on the retest:

Soon we'll know.

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over MA200/W, but at short term resistance.
Daily picture:

Top of channel and upper BB area.
Volume, or it won't happen ...

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Moreover, that bearish divergence implies a risk of fakeout, hence remember to protect your gain. Always.

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Caution over WE.

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No surprise, down to 23,3k on sunday close.

Key support 22,4-21,5k area.
Picture unchanged unless broken.

Very technical market.

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Moreover, very tricky and DANGEROUS unless > 24k can be achieved again.

Watch it.

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Looking at medium term: currently at lower BB on M, with huge volume in july.

Letting alone short term, any further weakness would be an opportunity.
Mind that.

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Upper limit of support area at 22400$ nailed tonight.

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Bitcoin is poised to break soon the current 22-24k congestion range.

From here, as ETH, it *MAY* have a chance of a further challenge of resistance, given daily RSI is not yet overbought. Not granted though. Failing that bias would stay bearish, as long as divergence insists.

More sideways would likely increase chances of a slump or a failed high.

All this said, watch out for triangle breakout.
It's likely to ignite a high volatility phase.

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Challenging resistance now.
Eyes on volume.

Same on ETH.

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No breakout nor volume.
Minor higher high on ETH.

Odds of a broader pullback increasing.
Taking a defensive stance till events.

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Unsurprisingly.

Either this ascending triangle holds, leading to a further bounce or it fails leading to price visiting again the 21k range. Support close to 23k mark, with some room for intraday wicks.

Caution, await test of the lower bound of the triangle.

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A perfect wick at 22,66k.

Bounce ongoing, but let's see D close, as we have to factor in exuberance after CPI data.

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At marked resistance.

Given low volume on last candles is pretty unclear whether that's an ascending triangle or a rising wedge.

A proper breakout needs rising volume.

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Anyway, let's get back to the OP post and see the progress so far:

It's pretty surprising price is STILL on the exact trajectory forecasted almost 2 month ago. It means a good part of this movement is basically technical.

Now it's likely to DIVERGE from that second arrow, as market actor scramble due to trend uncertainty.

What's important is to TEST the upper bound of that wedge somewhere, that's next meaningful event. The sooner the better, but it's up to market ro decide.

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Slowing down, sllghtly diverging from target.

I'll keep it short, as i'm in vacation.
I don't like what i see there.

Very risky, i'd recommend a defensive stance for the time being.

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Sneak peek of the upcoming medium term analysis (M), currenlty in the works.
To be finalized in a couple weeks, when i get back from vacation.

That's pretty bullish so far, question is if we get a further bear trap or not from here.

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Still in vacation and zero changes in overall scenario, so far. Will comment in a week or so

Take care.

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Bought back a trance at 19,6k

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Update:

Edge of upper liquidity area (may roughly pan down to 19,1k).

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Chaikin money flow / W: longest time spent under zero since 2015.

Given the historical precedents each further week passing by tends to increase the chances of nearing zero. Whatever the price.

You guess the outcome.

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Just got back and saw this impulse down.
Bought 1 more lot at 18,82k, for starters.

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1H: oversold and TD count 9. A bounce with a close over 19,1k would be interesting for the reason explained above.

Anyway, i'm here for accumulation.

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Short term still weak, but i think about to bounce.
Medium term (M) context:

About to decide the route.

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That unprecedented RED TD count, paired with divergence, is what drives me to accumulation. High reward implies high risk, so DYOR.

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Here is the expected bounce i mentioned below, in the comment section.

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That's a pretty candle.

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PA is stretched already, but let's have a look at the broader scenario.

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Herere it is, above 22k and pretty close to resistance boundaries.
Very stretched, brace.

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Contact.

Let the battle begin.

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Notjing meaningful, so far.
Still sideways within the upper liquidity zone, as you may notice by zooming out.

Support running slightly above 19k.
Slight diveergence on 1H, patiently awaiting for an impulse.

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Wick down, but nothing changed on W so far.

So plan is unchanged.

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Ok, recreation is likely almost over.

Come on, let's bounce, BTC.

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Awaiting monthly close.

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Macro scenario assessment: monthly close at about 19,4k was sufficient to keep somewhat afloat of support, yet nothing more than decent.
Like kicking a can down the road.

It's a missed opportunity, because just a few hundred dollars (e.g. 20,1k) would have made a pretty substantial difference here.

Anyway, short term we stilll have a further opportunity painted on D.

It all boils down to exploiting that resistance trendline on the 4th attempt. That should be achieved short term, possibly leveraging that ongoing spurious bullish divergence, given most indicators are pretty mixed or weak.

Key resistance area is about 20,1k $ on Bitcoin, 1400 $ on Ethereum.

Failing to overcome it would have consequences: while we would still retain meaningful divergences on both weekly and monthly, potentially acting as a "parachute", they would not prevent any bleeding / wicking down from support to the lower route area. Which would be pretty undesirable now, given the overall falling wedge is already approaching its apex.

Hence next 2/3 days are likely to be critical for the outcome of next few weeks.

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Another observation, for those interested.

If you draw MACD VXI on 2W (a pretty high TF), you'll notice that a crossover may be inbound. Within 1-2 bars, possibly.

Why MACD VXI ? Because it's similar to plain MACD, yet less lagging. Which is a pretty important factor dealing with high timeframes.

Mind the fact that such crossover happened only six times in Bitcoin history.

*Each and every time so far it *followed* a *significant low* within 5-8 bars, confirming (worst case) a local trend reversal.

We're close already to the 8 bars limit, so i'd watch it closely.

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Ok, we're about to see movement:

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Watch it, don't be fooled by the lack of volatility.
Moments like this use to be turning points.

Be vigilant.

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