Will 50k Hold?
Updated
Hi all,
Bitcoin managed to cloas the week above 50k. While this physcological level gives comfort, the real resistance is at the weekly 51.791 and we are below that level.
That said, consolidating under resistance is considered bullish, however, we don't know how price will react after passing this level.
The wyckoff distribution i have pointed out in my previous analysis still holds and if it plays out, we are looking at a LPSY moment as of now.
The upward moves are quite weak, not triggering any of my TOTT signals (and i have many)
So, longing here now would mean longing in to resistance, which is never a good idea. Last time i warned about this was at 67k :) Ofcourse it doesn't have to be the same, but given FED has declared the timeline for tapering and interest rate hikes by the end of March, i think we'll see a play until that time, but we don't know what composite man is about to play. Again, i think it's a mega distribution since last year October.
Patience is the most important skill to have right now. If you are long, use a stop loss or reduce your risk.
As always trade safe.
Bitcoin managed to cloas the week above 50k. While this physcological level gives comfort, the real resistance is at the weekly 51.791 and we are below that level.
That said, consolidating under resistance is considered bullish, however, we don't know how price will react after passing this level.
The wyckoff distribution i have pointed out in my previous analysis still holds and if it plays out, we are looking at a LPSY moment as of now.
The upward moves are quite weak, not triggering any of my TOTT signals (and i have many)
So, longing here now would mean longing in to resistance, which is never a good idea. Last time i warned about this was at 67k :) Ofcourse it doesn't have to be the same, but given FED has declared the timeline for tapering and interest rate hikes by the end of March, i think we'll see a play until that time, but we don't know what composite man is about to play. Again, i think it's a mega distribution since last year October.
Patience is the most important skill to have right now. If you are long, use a stop loss or reduce your risk.
As always trade safe.
Note
Mega distribution since October 2020 idea is playing out nicely, although i expected a much brutal sell of, things are moving slower and that could be an additional trap for the impatient! We got a bounce from the POC of the previous accumulation zone at 34.361 and a relief rally towards 40k. Even if the down trend has stopped here, it will need to retest the lows multiple times before a sustainable reversal, but it's to early to tell if we are in an accumulation zone or another redistribution zone. We should move with the trend and expect continuation as the first option. I would bet on another leg down towards 28k first and then 20k.
If you want to bet on 28k, place a buy order and set a tight stop with no losses more than 1% and adjust your risk with low trade size. This would be gambling.
I personally prefer to see a clear reversal and i don't think it will happen soon. Markets are pricing tapering and rate hikes now and it will continue until we see a "buy the news" event. That news could be the rate hike because markets would have already priced that expectation by March.
Keep calm, chill out, enjoy your profits until the opportunity presents itself to you.
Trade safe!
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