Nostradamus 101: BTC / USD 4 months ahead
My last analysis failed miserably, so divide this by half, but based on all nonsense here goes another 4 month prediction.
This is my final analysis this year, will see you fellas in 2022, let's see where this madness takes us. Good luck have fun.
Yes, nobody knows what will happen tomorrow, but based on fundamentals, technicals and intuition here is the play:
Part 1 - what is going on and why are we so optimistic
1. The latest rally has been associated with the Visa news;
2. We are still waiting for Amazon's rollout of BTC payments;
3. We are anticipating Tesla to follow suit;
4. We expect institutions to further adopt cryptos.
Part 2 - what we are definitely missing and cannot predict
1. Billionaires and institutions never gave a damn about us and our wellbeing;
2. It is in their best interest to confuse the general public and shake the markets;
3. Government finally understood crypto and ain't happy with us holding it;
4. Their volumes will inevitably crash the market so to create uncertainty;
5. Elon defrauded his own followers who still follow him - we are just naive.
Part 3 - what of all this nonsense
1. Nothing is ever what it seems;
2. Don't get fooled by the apathetic;
3. Don't enter too early or jump out too fast;
4. Divide everything by half;
5. Imagine you are a wealthy sociopath.
Part 4 - how to interpret the next 4 months
In summary, it feels like Amazon will announce that they will simply delay the rollout of BTC in their ecosystem, and this will launch the market into a selling frenzy;
consequence: we should see a lot of money flow back into stocks and bonds, potentially low-cost altcoins (somewhat balancing the money flow). Now this works for
several reasons: first and foremost, we are in a financial bubble, secondly the US economy is about to default (well not, they will raise the debt ceiling, but how long can
this go on for?) and lastly, institutions who bought the dip in June-July will liquidate their positions to exit at a profit.
This means we enter another 3-12 month bear market, depending on the Amazon and Tesla news, and obviously investment funds and such. Now what probably will happen,
is a double reverse play. First the negative news, then the short term selling, followed by intense accumulation, which suggests that by next Spring we should enter ALT
territory, followed by yet another natural or synthetic correction, right before 2023. What of 2023?
Part 5 - 2023 Shit Hits the Fan
There is a lot of news and articles you can read, but most importantly read between the lines. Very long story short: for the last decade BRICS has actively de-dollarized their
trade, which means less $ volume, which means less value of the $ because of its massive circulating supply, which is only increasing because they are forced to print money
in order not to default on their own debt. So inevitably kids, if there is no WW3, then eventually, you gotta pay your debts, and this is a scary prospect.
It means that not only America enters the Great recession of the 2020s but also the entire world - you don't believe me? Leehman Brothers circa 2008, one investment bank
failed and the whole world lost its nuts. Don't lose yours. Read up and prep yourself.
Conclusion
Nothing is ever what it seems. The best you can do is understand the direction of the market, and then imagine fakeout scenarios which would help the rich capitalize on the
stupidity of the unfortunate and uneducated... it's a sad sad world, but it is one we live in. Thank God for the internet at least (whilst it's free).
Last comment: DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH, THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, GET YOUR HEAD OUT OF YOUR ASS (OH! YOU HAVE), THEN STOP BEING NAIVE AND IMAGINE THE WORST
IN PEOPLE, SADLY THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT YOU OUGHT TO DO TO ANTICIPATE SHIT STORMS. ON ANOTHER NOTE, DON'T TRADE LEVERAGE AND JUST HOLD LONG TERM, UNLESS
QUANTUM COMPUTING COMES OUT ANYTIME SOON, IN WHICH CASE WE ARE ALL SCREWED. ENJOY, HAVE FUN. DON'T TELL ME I DIDN'T TELL YOU SO.
Hope this helps people. Hope we get the timing right this time. Hope. Safe trading.
This is my final analysis this year, will see you fellas in 2022, let's see where this madness takes us. Good luck have fun.
Yes, nobody knows what will happen tomorrow, but based on fundamentals, technicals and intuition here is the play:
Part 1 - what is going on and why are we so optimistic
1. The latest rally has been associated with the Visa news;
2. We are still waiting for Amazon's rollout of BTC payments;
3. We are anticipating Tesla to follow suit;
4. We expect institutions to further adopt cryptos.
Part 2 - what we are definitely missing and cannot predict
1. Billionaires and institutions never gave a damn about us and our wellbeing;
2. It is in their best interest to confuse the general public and shake the markets;
3. Government finally understood crypto and ain't happy with us holding it;
4. Their volumes will inevitably crash the market so to create uncertainty;
5. Elon defrauded his own followers who still follow him - we are just naive.
Part 3 - what of all this nonsense
1. Nothing is ever what it seems;
2. Don't get fooled by the apathetic;
3. Don't enter too early or jump out too fast;
4. Divide everything by half;
5. Imagine you are a wealthy sociopath.
Part 4 - how to interpret the next 4 months
In summary, it feels like Amazon will announce that they will simply delay the rollout of BTC in their ecosystem, and this will launch the market into a selling frenzy;
consequence: we should see a lot of money flow back into stocks and bonds, potentially low-cost altcoins (somewhat balancing the money flow). Now this works for
several reasons: first and foremost, we are in a financial bubble, secondly the US economy is about to default (well not, they will raise the debt ceiling, but how long can
this go on for?) and lastly, institutions who bought the dip in June-July will liquidate their positions to exit at a profit.
This means we enter another 3-12 month bear market, depending on the Amazon and Tesla news, and obviously investment funds and such. Now what probably will happen,
is a double reverse play. First the negative news, then the short term selling, followed by intense accumulation, which suggests that by next Spring we should enter ALT
territory, followed by yet another natural or synthetic correction, right before 2023. What of 2023?
Part 5 - 2023 Shit Hits the Fan
There is a lot of news and articles you can read, but most importantly read between the lines. Very long story short: for the last decade BRICS has actively de-dollarized their
trade, which means less $ volume, which means less value of the $ because of its massive circulating supply, which is only increasing because they are forced to print money
in order not to default on their own debt. So inevitably kids, if there is no WW3, then eventually, you gotta pay your debts, and this is a scary prospect.
It means that not only America enters the Great recession of the 2020s but also the entire world - you don't believe me? Leehman Brothers circa 2008, one investment bank
failed and the whole world lost its nuts. Don't lose yours. Read up and prep yourself.
Conclusion
Nothing is ever what it seems. The best you can do is understand the direction of the market, and then imagine fakeout scenarios which would help the rich capitalize on the
stupidity of the unfortunate and uneducated... it's a sad sad world, but it is one we live in. Thank God for the internet at least (whilst it's free).
Last comment: DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH, THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, GET YOUR HEAD OUT OF YOUR ASS (OH! YOU HAVE), THEN STOP BEING NAIVE AND IMAGINE THE WORST
IN PEOPLE, SADLY THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT YOU OUGHT TO DO TO ANTICIPATE SHIT STORMS. ON ANOTHER NOTE, DON'T TRADE LEVERAGE AND JUST HOLD LONG TERM, UNLESS
QUANTUM COMPUTING COMES OUT ANYTIME SOON, IN WHICH CASE WE ARE ALL SCREWED. ENJOY, HAVE FUN. DON'T TELL ME I DIDN'T TELL YOU SO.
Hope this helps people. Hope we get the timing right this time. Hope. Safe trading.
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