1. Resistance and Selling Zone:
The chart assumes that the marked resistance level will cause a strong rejection and lead to a downward movement. However, resistance levels can break if buying pressure is strong, leading to a breakout instead of a drop.
The selling zone marked might not be as strong as assumed, especially if there is high bullish momentum.
2. Bearish Projection Bias:
The analysis is heavily biased toward a bearish outcome, predicting a strong move down. However, Bitcoin is known for its volatility, and market sentiment can shift quickly.
The projection doesn’t account for potential bullish catalysts such as news, institutional buying, or unexpected support from higher time frames.
3. Support Level Stability:
While the support level is marked, there is no confirmation that it will hold. If too many traders expect it, it could be invalidated by a deeper move down.
It also lacks reference to volume analysis, which is crucial for confirming strong support or resistance.
4. Short Time Frame Limitations:
The chart is based on a 15-minute time frame, which can be misleading due to short-term noise.
A higher time frame analysis (1-hour or 4-hour) should be considered to confirm major trends.
5. Missing Confirmation Factors:
No indicators like RSI, MACD, or volume analysis are included to support the downtrend thesis.
Lack of candlestick pattern confirmation—just touching resistance doesn’t always mean reversal.
Alternative View:
Instead of expecting a direct rejection, a potential breakout scenario should be considered.
A fakeout above resistance could trap early sellers before a real move occurs.
The chart assumes that the marked resistance level will cause a strong rejection and lead to a downward movement. However, resistance levels can break if buying pressure is strong, leading to a breakout instead of a drop.
The selling zone marked might not be as strong as assumed, especially if there is high bullish momentum.
2. Bearish Projection Bias:
The analysis is heavily biased toward a bearish outcome, predicting a strong move down. However, Bitcoin is known for its volatility, and market sentiment can shift quickly.
The projection doesn’t account for potential bullish catalysts such as news, institutional buying, or unexpected support from higher time frames.
3. Support Level Stability:
While the support level is marked, there is no confirmation that it will hold. If too many traders expect it, it could be invalidated by a deeper move down.
It also lacks reference to volume analysis, which is crucial for confirming strong support or resistance.
4. Short Time Frame Limitations:
The chart is based on a 15-minute time frame, which can be misleading due to short-term noise.
A higher time frame analysis (1-hour or 4-hour) should be considered to confirm major trends.
5. Missing Confirmation Factors:
No indicators like RSI, MACD, or volume analysis are included to support the downtrend thesis.
Lack of candlestick pattern confirmation—just touching resistance doesn’t always mean reversal.
Alternative View:
Instead of expecting a direct rejection, a potential breakout scenario should be considered.
A fakeout above resistance could trap early sellers before a real move occurs.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.