Bitcoin, ascending triangle or impulsive wave.
Updated
Hi guys, Bitcoin and Ether are printing exactly the same pattern, so although I´m short in Ether, I´ll focus the analysis in Bitcoin since what happens in Bitcoin will happen in Ether. In my previous ETH analysis I was debating wether we are making a symmetrical triangle (which definitely is not) or an ABC from December 15th. So there is another chance as well, this also could be an ascending triangle, which in the current bear market and coming from an downtrend, is a continuation of it. Triangles normally are made of abc´s but waves 1-3-5 can be made as well of impulsive waves. So far, waves 1 and 3 are impulsive, so there is not clarity wether the price is going to hold 3540 or not, but I´m sure at least around that levels we will see a very nice bounce.
Now we have to focus on the current correction up. On the 25th, the price went almost to 38.2, which makes me think that a continuation upwards to 50% or 61.8 fibo retrace is possible. Since whales are who moves this market and not us, I want to prevent being out of the market in case of a hard dump. So my first entry is at current level in BTC 3922 and 142 in ETH with a 5% of my capital. I have another short order ready of 2.5% at 50% fibo and another 2.5% at 61.8, now is just a matter of time until the price touch at least the base of the triangle I draw.
Remember that trading is not a game of being always right rather than guessing the overall direction of the trend and the proper use of technical analysis tools to define your entries together with a capital management strategy, so if the price starts going up, is still is under my parameters.
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Now we have to focus on the current correction up. On the 25th, the price went almost to 38.2, which makes me think that a continuation upwards to 50% or 61.8 fibo retrace is possible. Since whales are who moves this market and not us, I want to prevent being out of the market in case of a hard dump. So my first entry is at current level in BTC 3922 and 142 in ETH with a 5% of my capital. I have another short order ready of 2.5% at 50% fibo and another 2.5% at 61.8, now is just a matter of time until the price touch at least the base of the triangle I draw.
Remember that trading is not a game of being always right rather than guessing the overall direction of the trend and the proper use of technical analysis tools to define your entries together with a capital management strategy, so if the price starts going up, is still is under my parameters.
If you find this idea useful, please hit the like button and follow me.
If you want to start trading at Bitmex, follow this link and get a 10% discount in your trades commissions bitmex.com/register/R5bkiQ
Note
If you have any doubt about the title of my idea, when I mean impulsive wave, is a downwards impulsive wave. We are in short.Note
The black lines is exactly what I mean by the impulsive wave scenario of my title.Note
The party has begun.Note
If you entered short following my trade, move stops to entry.Note
The only reason I see for this bounce is a bullish butterfly what I didn´t pay attention to it, but it has a hard effect on the price. I´m close to my stop, but still on the market.Note
Ok so the price kicked me out. I move my stop $1.5 below my entry price, so it´s ok. As I said in other analysis, trading is not a game of being always right but guessing the overall direction and finding good entries where you can safe your position once it goes in your side risking a % of your trading capital which allows you to add more in case the price goes the opposite way.Note
There is not many reasons to believe that we will restest the top of the triangle. I have a short order in BTC at 3950 and 142 in ETHNote
I’m still short from 141, if the bulls push up the price to 163, I have another order of another 5% at that level. Time is passing and bulls are not able to pump the price, so chances are decreasingNote
Ok if you followed my trades, close your shorts. We could see a wave up.
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