BITCOIN | The Last Chance!
Updated
Hi,
I would like to share my most recent analysis of BTC/USD. Hope this helps you identify some strong areas, directions, danger zones, etc.
Let's start from the Weekly timeframe(TF).
The orange line is Weekly EMA50. Four weeks in the row it has held the price and last two weeks the price has got tiny rejections upwards of it. Plus, there is the round number of $8,000 and 2018 July high, they should add a bit strength to the current support area. So, the current support (around 8k) has held it. I cannot say "nicely" but it has held the price which is the most important starting point for further analysis.
The Daily TF
If we look inside the Weekly candles then we can see more accurately how strongly the current support area has held the price. Several rejections between $7,800-$8,000 and some of them have printed bullish candlestick patterns after the rejections. There is a bit sloppy Bullish Engulfing, textbook bullish Engulfing and now, after yesterday's candle close, we got another, third, bullish candlestick pattern. This is not a textbook example but still, considering the price action it resembles with Morning Star.
Recently, the Bitcoin price made a breakout from the bullish chart pattern (more about it in the 4H chart section) and it manages to break above the strong area. To be said, I still, wait for a rejection upwards but to be honest, it looks damn hard to get it. We have caught some short-term movements but nothing more than that but as said, I'm still waiting for a bounce to the key area: $8,950 - $9,200. The price action has not given any bigger signs to think differently but the time, spent around 8k, starts to say something - it has been too long around the 8k. If the price stays too long around the potential bounce area it decreases to trade success rate but I believe that the current push is the last chance. If Bitcoin price doesn't react positively after yesterday's price action then it goes down and the critical area is mentioned in the 4H TF section.
Daily summary:
+ The price has got multiple rejections upwards from 8k.
+ Almost all rejections have ended up with some bullish candlestick patterns.
+ At the moment, we have a short-term higher high and higher low.
- It has been too long around the mentioned support area without any significant move.
4H TF
Firstly, the old dept: "The Bitcoin price made a breakout from the bullish chart pattern".
Saturday, the BTC price made a break above the bullish chart pattern called "Falling Wedge". Actually, this is too deep to be a perfect pattern but still, the price managed to crack the counter-trendline (pattern upper trendline). As I have notified several times about the counter-trendline breaks - if they break then it will be usually a pretty strong continuation sign to the breakout direction and the current result is front of you. The short-term counter-trendline break guided to price above the $8,000 and above the strong price level $8,100. I mentioned before that critical area, this is it.
Firstly, be cautious if the price starts to fall lower than $8,100. Secondly, be alerted if it starts to fall lower than $8,000. As said previously, this is the last chance to go higher from the current levels and if the price starts to fall lower from the prementioned critical levels then it will drop. I cannot say exactly how deep it will fall but definitely I will make an update if this occurs.
Okay, the last chance to go upwards but where is the optimal entry to the wave upwards?
The answer would be: from the current price until $8,075
Pros and cons:
+ Weekly EMA50 and $8,000 have held the price but can it push the price?!
+ Bullish candlestick patterns and bullish price actions from Daily TF
+ Short-term higher lows (HL) and higher high (HH)
+ Break above the short-term counter-trendline
+ Break above the bullish chart pattern called "Falling Wedge"
+ Break above one of the key price level $8,100
+ The latest bounce upwards occurred with RSI Divergence
+ The latest bounce upwards occurred from the trendline. Not a significant trendline but still, it held the price.
- Time spend around 8k
- Lack of buying power.
- The pressure is pretty high, so a tiny shake-off and it will "collaps"
Targets:
If "the last chance" works out then there are orange price levels above the current price: $8,300 and $8,455. These are the major horizontal obstacles, okay let's call them resistances :), to go upwards. This is your choice, how to react if the price reaches to those levels but the major, the ideal target is slightly below $9,000. Channels, waves, pattern targets, mid-term retests and etc. are pointed to the mentioned level.
These were my thoughts about the current situation of the market. If it was helpful then take a second and support my effort by hitting the "LIKE" button, it is my only fee from You!
Best regards,
Vaido
I would like to share my most recent analysis of BTC/USD. Hope this helps you identify some strong areas, directions, danger zones, etc.
Let's start from the Weekly timeframe(TF).
The orange line is Weekly EMA50. Four weeks in the row it has held the price and last two weeks the price has got tiny rejections upwards of it. Plus, there is the round number of $8,000 and 2018 July high, they should add a bit strength to the current support area. So, the current support (around 8k) has held it. I cannot say "nicely" but it has held the price which is the most important starting point for further analysis.
The Daily TF
If we look inside the Weekly candles then we can see more accurately how strongly the current support area has held the price. Several rejections between $7,800-$8,000 and some of them have printed bullish candlestick patterns after the rejections. There is a bit sloppy Bullish Engulfing, textbook bullish Engulfing and now, after yesterday's candle close, we got another, third, bullish candlestick pattern. This is not a textbook example but still, considering the price action it resembles with Morning Star.
Recently, the Bitcoin price made a breakout from the bullish chart pattern (more about it in the 4H chart section) and it manages to break above the strong area. To be said, I still, wait for a rejection upwards but to be honest, it looks damn hard to get it. We have caught some short-term movements but nothing more than that but as said, I'm still waiting for a bounce to the key area: $8,950 - $9,200. The price action has not given any bigger signs to think differently but the time, spent around 8k, starts to say something - it has been too long around the 8k. If the price stays too long around the potential bounce area it decreases to trade success rate but I believe that the current push is the last chance. If Bitcoin price doesn't react positively after yesterday's price action then it goes down and the critical area is mentioned in the 4H TF section.
Daily summary:
+ The price has got multiple rejections upwards from 8k.
+ Almost all rejections have ended up with some bullish candlestick patterns.
+ At the moment, we have a short-term higher high and higher low.
- It has been too long around the mentioned support area without any significant move.
4H TF
Firstly, the old dept: "The Bitcoin price made a breakout from the bullish chart pattern".
Saturday, the BTC price made a break above the bullish chart pattern called "Falling Wedge". Actually, this is too deep to be a perfect pattern but still, the price managed to crack the counter-trendline (pattern upper trendline). As I have notified several times about the counter-trendline breaks - if they break then it will be usually a pretty strong continuation sign to the breakout direction and the current result is front of you. The short-term counter-trendline break guided to price above the $8,000 and above the strong price level $8,100. I mentioned before that critical area, this is it.
Firstly, be cautious if the price starts to fall lower than $8,100. Secondly, be alerted if it starts to fall lower than $8,000. As said previously, this is the last chance to go higher from the current levels and if the price starts to fall lower from the prementioned critical levels then it will drop. I cannot say exactly how deep it will fall but definitely I will make an update if this occurs.
Okay, the last chance to go upwards but where is the optimal entry to the wave upwards?
The answer would be: from the current price until $8,075
Pros and cons:
+ Weekly EMA50 and $8,000 have held the price but can it push the price?!
+ Bullish candlestick patterns and bullish price actions from Daily TF
+ Short-term higher lows (HL) and higher high (HH)
+ Break above the short-term counter-trendline
+ Break above the bullish chart pattern called "Falling Wedge"
+ Break above one of the key price level $8,100
+ The latest bounce upwards occurred with RSI Divergence
+ The latest bounce upwards occurred from the trendline. Not a significant trendline but still, it held the price.
- Time spend around 8k
- Lack of buying power.
- The pressure is pretty high, so a tiny shake-off and it will "collaps"
Targets:
If "the last chance" works out then there are orange price levels above the current price: $8,300 and $8,455. These are the major horizontal obstacles, okay let's call them resistances :), to go upwards. This is your choice, how to react if the price reaches to those levels but the major, the ideal target is slightly below $9,000. Channels, waves, pattern targets, mid-term retests and etc. are pointed to the mentioned level.
These were my thoughts about the current situation of the market. If it was helpful then take a second and support my effort by hitting the "LIKE" button, it is my only fee from You!
Best regards,
Vaido
Note
Atm still valid but watch out for the candle close below 8k:Note
Soon I will post a new analysis, behind the scenes :DNote
NEW BTC ANALYSIS:
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