Bitcoin: where to next? Two possible EW scenarios
Updated
tl;dr: If it breaks the red line, we're probably going down either to retest 3,000, form a large triangle or below 3,000.
If we get one more push upwards and start tackling the major downtrend from 5,000 (green line), we should be good for a fresh bull wave to 6,000 or more.
Here I have postulated two possible paths for BTC from this point.
One is very bullish, and one is very bearish. The blue EW markers assume the bullish path and the red markers assume the bearish one.
Currently we are steadily rising, however it's still uncertain whether we are still bearish or not - at this point I like to keep a 'bearish by default' stance in order to prepare for any potential resume of the major downtrend we have already.
We have an trendline going upwards, since EW 1-2-3-4-5 waves like to stay in the same channel (generally) I think that this helps give some direction - if this trendline is broken, then we obviously haven't completed 5 waves back upwards, and we can assume that it's a simple a-b-c retrace upwards from a potential (A) leg down from 5,000. This means that there will be a (C) leg, and that this will either mean a retest of 3,000, a triangle, below 3,000, or any of these somewhat bearish scenarios.
On the other hand, if we get one more push upwards - then we've completed an EW 1-2-3-4-5 from the bottom, potentially implying that we've already finished an a-b-c from 5,000, and a new bull trend has begun. Note that this is implying, EW waves are very complex, especially when we've potentially finished a wave V - but if we manage to get one push more _and_ break the main downtrend from 5,000 - I will go full bull once more.
Until then, watch that trendline!
If we get one more push upwards and start tackling the major downtrend from 5,000 (green line), we should be good for a fresh bull wave to 6,000 or more.
Here I have postulated two possible paths for BTC from this point.
One is very bullish, and one is very bearish. The blue EW markers assume the bullish path and the red markers assume the bearish one.
Currently we are steadily rising, however it's still uncertain whether we are still bearish or not - at this point I like to keep a 'bearish by default' stance in order to prepare for any potential resume of the major downtrend we have already.
We have an trendline going upwards, since EW 1-2-3-4-5 waves like to stay in the same channel (generally) I think that this helps give some direction - if this trendline is broken, then we obviously haven't completed 5 waves back upwards, and we can assume that it's a simple a-b-c retrace upwards from a potential (A) leg down from 5,000. This means that there will be a (C) leg, and that this will either mean a retest of 3,000, a triangle, below 3,000, or any of these somewhat bearish scenarios.
On the other hand, if we get one more push upwards - then we've completed an EW 1-2-3-4-5 from the bottom, potentially implying that we've already finished an a-b-c from 5,000, and a new bull trend has begun. Note that this is implying, EW waves are very complex, especially when we've potentially finished a wave V - but if we manage to get one push more _and_ break the main downtrend from 5,000 - I will go full bull once more.
Until then, watch that trendline!
Note
Here is a chart I posted around a month ago assuming the bearish scenario. It seems to have played out so far, so I'm turning slightly more bearish.
Note
We broke the trendline unfortunately, adding to my bearish sentiment.That said, I think we're still okay until we break below 3800.
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