Bitcoin ETF Hype 2018
Updated
Ive had a number of comments about what I think will happen with the ETF, primarily because if it were to be accepted / approved I have mentioned that I think that it will mean we have seen the bottom already.
I played the previous ETF announcement very well (link attached) and I anticipate a similar level of relative hype could occur.
The situation isn’t hugely different to 2017 – we were in a state of consolidation having made new all-time highs followed by a large amount of China bans bitcoin FUD.
We had a Head and shoulders pattern at the bottom, which we proceeded to break out of and realise the full measured move, following which there was an expected sell off and then a final panic speculative push to find new all-time highs at +40% from the breakout, which was subsequently fully retraced to the breakout.
Today we are presented with a shorter timeframe but with a Head and shoulders bottom. Should we break out of this, it would seem reasonable to me to expect us to realise the measured move of c.$7.5-7.7k, which I have been expecting as a mid-term upside for some time. This also coincides with the first level of horizontal resistance and the heavy level of diagonal resistance. As such I believe this area to be a good region to speculate for if we can break out of the Head and Shoulders with conviction Volume.
A similar move to the +40% as in prior year would take BTC up towards 9.5k, but unlike last time we have fallen further and harder from our last experience of this hype so I would see this as a very stretched target given the time frame and the fact that we have more people active with short interest and the vehicles to deliver the shorts. It might be worth a look at this but it would all have to happen very fast. Possible but improbable.
On that actual decision itself, this Is the only thing which could change my mid-term view from being bearish. If it is approved, I have no doubt that we would see new all-time highs by the end of the year.
Failing that, however far the speculation runs, I would expect us to return to eactly where we are now at c. 6.7k.
This time, ironically the thing which is currently hurting us (the Futures) could be what has legitimised the ETF decision to some extent.
The unwinding of short positions coupled with genuine speculation frenzy would be the sort of thing which helps with insane bull runs.
Either way, I still expect the bull run, its just a matter of when.
FILBFILB
I played the previous ETF announcement very well (link attached) and I anticipate a similar level of relative hype could occur.
The situation isn’t hugely different to 2017 – we were in a state of consolidation having made new all-time highs followed by a large amount of China bans bitcoin FUD.
We had a Head and shoulders pattern at the bottom, which we proceeded to break out of and realise the full measured move, following which there was an expected sell off and then a final panic speculative push to find new all-time highs at +40% from the breakout, which was subsequently fully retraced to the breakout.
Today we are presented with a shorter timeframe but with a Head and shoulders bottom. Should we break out of this, it would seem reasonable to me to expect us to realise the measured move of c.$7.5-7.7k, which I have been expecting as a mid-term upside for some time. This also coincides with the first level of horizontal resistance and the heavy level of diagonal resistance. As such I believe this area to be a good region to speculate for if we can break out of the Head and Shoulders with conviction Volume.
A similar move to the +40% as in prior year would take BTC up towards 9.5k, but unlike last time we have fallen further and harder from our last experience of this hype so I would see this as a very stretched target given the time frame and the fact that we have more people active with short interest and the vehicles to deliver the shorts. It might be worth a look at this but it would all have to happen very fast. Possible but improbable.
On that actual decision itself, this Is the only thing which could change my mid-term view from being bearish. If it is approved, I have no doubt that we would see new all-time highs by the end of the year.
Failing that, however far the speculation runs, I would expect us to return to eactly where we are now at c. 6.7k.
This time, ironically the thing which is currently hurting us (the Futures) could be what has legitimised the ETF decision to some extent.
The unwinding of short positions coupled with genuine speculation frenzy would be the sort of thing which helps with insane bull runs.
Either way, I still expect the bull run, its just a matter of when.
FILBFILB
Note
Guy, i wanted to share the possiblility of what i think could happen if we fail to push on from here and make new highs this weekend. Note
This also may be worth baring in mind.Note
Exited all trades on this move up to 7700. Booked in significant profits across several accounts...
Looking to reload in the zone shown.
Note
Here is my prefered outlookNote
Continued 
BTC consolidation.. Shorts closed on the ~8.1k yesterday hense the sentiment increase. Long positions still not re-enered after profit taking. Fibs suggest similar move would take us to the 9.5k. Im suspecting we go sideways into the weekend.Note
A STONG WEEK FOR THE BULLSCHART;
Bitcoin had another very strong week, with the ETF hype continuing to apply upward pressure to price action. Bitcoin punched through the 200 daily EMA early on Monday Morning, where it quickly became support and provided a Launchpad to the 1.618 Fibonacci target of $8,515 by Tuesday. Using Bitfinex long-Short data; a notable 22% of long positions were closed in the run up to the highs from £7,777, signalling profit taking by the bulls which acted as a contra to the market buying by new market participants speculating on the ETF announcement. Thursday saw the proposal from BATS BZX Exchange to list the Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust's commodity-based shares rejected slamming the price sending the price tumbling back to retest the 50% Fibonacci level, where the market found support and quickly retraced back to continue consolidation into the week closing.
WEEKLY CLOSING
CHART;
Looking ahead, a similarly impulsive start to the week would see a target towards the 1.618 Fibonacci level of $9,317, which would also represent the same percentage increase which was seen following speculation on the previous ETF decision back in early in 2017.
In order to do this, Bitcoin needs to break the 50MA which has previously acted as support. This will be seen as a significant point of control by the market and would be quite a statement A break would then present the $10,000 psychological resistance for the bulls.
Traders may see the risk reward being out of favour at this level and therefore a consolidation above the 50 MA and below the $10,000 resistance may occur should the aforementioned scenario pay out.
Another notable technically bullish signal on the weekly chart is the bullish cross of the Moving average convergence divergence (MACD), which has not happened since 24th April 2017, where Bitcoin subsequently rose from $1,200 to $19,400. As shown on the weekly chart, all three previous crosses have led to significant bull runs and new all-time highs.
MONTHLY CLOSING
CHART;
Another important factor taking place mid-week, is the monthly close. As it stands, the monthly candles are bullish engulfing, meaning that, during July, the bulls have reversed all of June’s downward momentum, and more. Again, this is very encouraging and could spur some positive price action going into the new month. A close below $7,500 would be marginally bearish but seems unlikely at this stage.
Despite the positive outlook, it is important to remember that the bulls are attempting to recover from lower lows at $5,800. In order to confirm a bull market, a higher high over $10,000 followed by a higher low, must be found otherwise the bears will capitalise on any uncertainty and look to test $5,000
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