What is happening with BTC ?
Before talking about the market movement, let's review what my portfolio looks like at the moment.
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My current positions
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Long term investment portfolio:
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Review of my BTC short trade
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On the weekly timeframe, we can assume the drop from $10,500 to $3,800 was an impulse down due to the market dropped decisively. Thus, it was reasonable to expect a correction up before another drop. So basically I was looking for a good price level to short.
As per my trading system, high 7k's was a possible level to short, however the price never break below $7,400 to give me a valid entry. (told you in my latest BTC update)
The next price level to short was the high 8k's due to the daily structure & the 0.786 retracement. Plus, there was high volume around these price levels. Despite the fact that I warned you on the 20th April there is no clear resistance structures on the weekly timeframe until $9200, I decided to take the $8,700 short anyway due to the good risk reward and high probability set-up.
Therefore, from a risk reward and win rate perspective, the trade was worth taking. What I didn't do well was that I should have waited for bearish price actions to show up first before taking the trade, especially after seeing how bullish the move was yesterday. I even gave you an example of what price actions to look for in one of my previous posts - 'What price actions to look for' below:
(Stupid me *#&*$&(#$)
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What about now ?
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In the big picture, I am still favoring the market to go sideways between $10,000 & $6,000 in the next few months (if you have forgotten, please refer to my previous post here)
For people who already entered their longs, I think it's not a bad idea to secure some profits on the way up. They are just floating profits If you never close your positions in profits.
For people who wants to buy but have not yet entered, I can only tell you that it's just not a good idea to chase the price. If you have missed a good entry point (ie. bought with me below 6k), the risk reward ratio does not work in your favor. In the big picture, you want to buy near support and sell near resistance.
For people who wants to short the market, you can refer to my previous post on 'what price actions to look for' (attached above). Please wait for the bullish sentiment to fade away first.
Personally, I will be interested to looking for short opportunities @ around $9,500 and long opportunities @ around $6,000.
PS: if you have not yet read my risk management chapter 1 & 2 or subscribed, please take a look as risk management is the key to consistent trading.
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Past winning trades: (without leverage)
Bought between $5,000 - $5,500. Sold around $6,850 (30% profits)
Entered $8450, sold around $9,800 (16% profits)
Bitcoin dropped from 12k to 7k as expected (40% fall)
Perfect call on 12k weekly resistance
Bitcoin, perfect call (300% profits)
Bitcoin, bought between 6.8k - 7.3k (40% profits)
Bitcoin dropped to 3.5k as expected (40% fall)
Bitcoin, bought $6220 target $8480 (36% profits)
Education posts:
2618 trade
Top-down analysis
How I draw the trendline
Risk management series:
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My current positions
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Long term investment portfolio:
- For $7,000 positions (roughly 40% of my investment portfolio) - still holding
- For $7,700 positions (10% of my portfolio) - booked half profits @ $9250
This leaves me with 55% in cash. - XRP long term positions bought @ $0.15 is going well (link)
Swing trade position: - Opened a ETH buy position recently @ $170, closed half positions @ $197 and the remaining positions moved
stop-loss to break-even. - Opened a BTC short position several hours ago at $8700 and got stopped out at $9350. Lost 2% of my account size on this trade.
Let's review why I took the short trade and whether it was the right choice.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Review of my BTC short trade
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
On the weekly timeframe, we can assume the drop from $10,500 to $3,800 was an impulse down due to the market dropped decisively. Thus, it was reasonable to expect a correction up before another drop. So basically I was looking for a good price level to short.
As per my trading system, high 7k's was a possible level to short, however the price never break below $7,400 to give me a valid entry. (told you in my latest BTC update)
The next price level to short was the high 8k's due to the daily structure & the 0.786 retracement. Plus, there was high volume around these price levels. Despite the fact that I warned you on the 20th April there is no clear resistance structures on the weekly timeframe until $9200, I decided to take the $8,700 short anyway due to the good risk reward and high probability set-up.
Therefore, from a risk reward and win rate perspective, the trade was worth taking. What I didn't do well was that I should have waited for bearish price actions to show up first before taking the trade, especially after seeing how bullish the move was yesterday. I even gave you an example of what price actions to look for in one of my previous posts - 'What price actions to look for' below:
(Stupid me *#&*$&(#$)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
What about now ?
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
In the big picture, I am still favoring the market to go sideways between $10,000 & $6,000 in the next few months (if you have forgotten, please refer to my previous post here)
For people who already entered their longs, I think it's not a bad idea to secure some profits on the way up. They are just floating profits If you never close your positions in profits.
For people who wants to buy but have not yet entered, I can only tell you that it's just not a good idea to chase the price. If you have missed a good entry point (ie. bought with me below 6k), the risk reward ratio does not work in your favor. In the big picture, you want to buy near support and sell near resistance.
For people who wants to short the market, you can refer to my previous post on 'what price actions to look for' (attached above). Please wait for the bullish sentiment to fade away first.
Personally, I will be interested to looking for short opportunities @ around $9,500 and long opportunities @ around $6,000.
PS: if you have not yet read my risk management chapter 1 & 2 or subscribed, please take a look as risk management is the key to consistent trading.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Past winning trades: (without leverage)
Bought between $5,000 - $5,500. Sold around $6,850 (30% profits)
Entered $8450, sold around $9,800 (16% profits)
Bitcoin dropped from 12k to 7k as expected (40% fall)
Perfect call on 12k weekly resistance
Bitcoin, perfect call (300% profits)
Bitcoin, bought between 6.8k - 7.3k (40% profits)
Bitcoin dropped to 3.5k as expected (40% fall)
Bitcoin, bought $6220 target $8480 (36% profits)
Education posts:
2618 trade
Top-down analysis
How I draw the trendline
Risk management series:
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
- Chapter 1: 1% rule
- Chapter 2: How to calculate position size?
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