As indicated yesterday (see here: tradingview.com/v/sKe4z6fx/ ), I added a new feature in the predictive analysis and forecasting, which provides a "line in the sand" where bulls and bears are likely to take over, if and once price surpasses it. The condition here is one that I would define as a "BACA" (A term soe other trader came up with in a Facebook Forex discussion group, called"The Giraffe Room" - See Bubboo Bains). In essence, BACA means nothing more than price "Breaking Across + Closing Across" a given level.
In this particular case, the Bearish BACA line (from here on: "(-) BACA") was defined at 429.02. Hence, a price cross below this line would also have to close below this line to engage the higher probability of a bearish scenario to unfold. It appears to me that this H4 chart is still in the midst of fashioning a price bar, and that no commitment below this level has been made. Nonetheless, I thought it prudent to foretell that this is possibly underway.
As the bulls are getting pummeled, let's simply wait and see what comes of this BACA line. In the mean time, I would add that prior analysis remains intact and targets in sight - Link to most recent analysis is available above, as well as in TradingView's "Related Ideas" - Here is a Worst-Case Scenario that was originally posted, as well: tradingview.com/v/3n6A1q33/ - Turns out that this Worst-Case Scenario is currently unfolding.
Cheers,
David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Denver, Colorado - USA
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