Aug 22
Overview:
The S&P 500 corrected by 1.17%, as more turbulence is expected in its attempt to break the all-time high (ATH). The chances of a 1.73% rise on Friday are slim, but we still have one more week of a relatively calm August to set some bull traps. Thursday saw a correction for BTC, but it managed to hold the crucial $60.2 level, attempting to break it three times. This establishes a new range of $60.2 to $63.1, where some long positions could be taken with a properly tight stop-loss (SL).
Over the last three weeks—specifically on Sunday, the 4th, 11th, and 18th—BTC has closed with red candles, highlighting the strength of the bears, who appear to be preparing for the upcoming week by selling BTC. There's no indication this week will be any different, so consider holding long positions until Sunday, then look into taking profits or even shorting.
Weekly (W): For the fourth week in a row, we’re holding the $58.2 level. Wicks are attempting to push lower, but the bulls remain strong. This still allows some room for a bullish scenario if we can break and hold the $63.1 level. However, with a potentially difficult September ahead, there's little to suggest extreme optimism towards this risky and still relatively alternative asset. No divergence observed.
Daily (D): The main event on the daily timeframe is BTC’s escape from the daily range and breaking the Bollinger Bands moving average (BB MA). However, if we consider more recent daily levels, the trading range widens, and BTC has yet to break out of it, with resistance at $61.6. No divergence observed.
4-Hour (4h): No divergence or signs of a reversal. BTC is approaching its sixth attempt to break the $61.6 resistance.
1-Hour (1h): Showed some weakness in its attempt to break and stay above $61.6, as bears activated and pushed it down. It’s now trading below the BB MA.
Alts Relative to BTC: Altcoins have been pumping at twice the rate of BTC. NEAR, SUI, APT, TAO, and FTM are all up by 4-7%. This growth is expected to continue through Friday and into the weekend.
Bull Case: Same as yesterday. We believe BTC has found its bottom, and once more liquidity flows into the market, possibly following an interest rate cut, BTC will rally. The combination of the last week of August, followed by a small correction, could lead to further gains.
Bear Case: The economy may be in worse shape than anticipated, and even with four interest rate cuts by the end of the year, we could still be in a recession.
Fear and Greed Index: Currently at 48.45, slightly lower than yesterday’s 49.59. This is surprising, given that BTC has been on the rise for the last three weeks since the crash.
Prediction: Expect growth in the last week of August, followed by a slump in the first two weeks of September, and then a downturn.
Opportunities: On the weekly (W) and 4-hour (4h) charts, watch for divergences in major alts like
NEARUSDT NEAR, 
APTUSDT APT, 
ARUSDT AR, BINANCE:RNDRUSDT RNDR, 
TAOUSDT TAO, and 
FTMUSDT FTM. All have RSI above 70. Wait for Friday to see if MACD divergences emerge as this initial push weakens and they approach weekly resistance levels.
The S&P 500 corrected by 1.17%, as more turbulence is expected in its attempt to break the all-time high (ATH). The chances of a 1.73% rise on Friday are slim, but we still have one more week of a relatively calm August to set some bull traps. Thursday saw a correction for BTC, but it managed to hold the crucial $60.2 level, attempting to break it three times. This establishes a new range of $60.2 to $63.1, where some long positions could be taken with a properly tight stop-loss (SL).
Over the last three weeks—specifically on Sunday, the 4th, 11th, and 18th—BTC has closed with red candles, highlighting the strength of the bears, who appear to be preparing for the upcoming week by selling BTC. There's no indication this week will be any different, so consider holding long positions until Sunday, then look into taking profits or even shorting.
Weekly (W): For the fourth week in a row, we’re holding the $58.2 level. Wicks are attempting to push lower, but the bulls remain strong. This still allows some room for a bullish scenario if we can break and hold the $63.1 level. However, with a potentially difficult September ahead, there's little to suggest extreme optimism towards this risky and still relatively alternative asset. No divergence observed.
Daily (D): The main event on the daily timeframe is BTC’s escape from the daily range and breaking the Bollinger Bands moving average (BB MA). However, if we consider more recent daily levels, the trading range widens, and BTC has yet to break out of it, with resistance at $61.6. No divergence observed.
4-Hour (4h): No divergence or signs of a reversal. BTC is approaching its sixth attempt to break the $61.6 resistance.
1-Hour (1h): Showed some weakness in its attempt to break and stay above $61.6, as bears activated and pushed it down. It’s now trading below the BB MA.
Alts Relative to BTC: Altcoins have been pumping at twice the rate of BTC. NEAR, SUI, APT, TAO, and FTM are all up by 4-7%. This growth is expected to continue through Friday and into the weekend.
Bull Case: Same as yesterday. We believe BTC has found its bottom, and once more liquidity flows into the market, possibly following an interest rate cut, BTC will rally. The combination of the last week of August, followed by a small correction, could lead to further gains.
Bear Case: The economy may be in worse shape than anticipated, and even with four interest rate cuts by the end of the year, we could still be in a recession.
Fear and Greed Index: Currently at 48.45, slightly lower than yesterday’s 49.59. This is surprising, given that BTC has been on the rise for the last three weeks since the crash.
Prediction: Expect growth in the last week of August, followed by a slump in the first two weeks of September, and then a downturn.
Opportunities: On the weekly (W) and 4-hour (4h) charts, watch for divergences in major alts like
NEARUSDT NEAR, APTUSDT APT, ARUSDT AR, BINANCE:RNDRUSDT RNDR, TAOUSDT TAO, and FTMUSDT FTM. All have RSI above 70. Wait for Friday to see if MACD divergences emerge as this initial push weakens and they approach weekly resistance levels.
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