April to May, accumulation and distribution, fib pitchforked

Updated

April to May, accumulation and distribution, fib pitchforked

During charting the whole move from april to now one centerline was always in my focus, and two parallels to that. I had been looking for the mathematical reason for that. Think I found it, make up your own mind.

The chart also details the phases of accumulation and distribution, recently the breakling of the ICE, which happens to be my fib centerline, and we have tries or are still trying to rally back to the ICE. If you like to know more about Wyckhoff and especially the rally back to ICE check in here:

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Zoomed in

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MY guess is a rebounce to the upper fib, then retest and break lower fib and reach out for 7890 in next 12-36 hours

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Added fib 1.618, as that one is in the green target box

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potential wave count: alternation rule 2/4, 2 sharp, 4 flat

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It could be that wave 3 terminated at 8100, which plays nicely with fibs, that would mean a retrace in the steps 8400, 8593, 8744 max

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wave 4 calculated correct by 13 points

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Stop on one of the two fibs

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Most confluence at 7770, but I think it will stop at the fib line around 7860-7790 (depending on time it takes to get there

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retrace now 8128

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if wave 4 finished at 8160, then confluece at 7806-7617

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Sorry, 7805-7817

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Wave 5 can also be truncated if too many people FOMO in

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8599 hit, short now, wait if it goes above 8600, then probably 1.618 extension to 8804

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Sorry, not so much time lately
Curreent pullback or already further markdown, but I guess first some ranging (Wyckhoff theory again, will update soon).
Current situation might be five wave down (already too far for abc), next support 8284 and 8199, 8200 last stand for bulls, hitting 0.382 fib of move upward and downtrend line from 9990

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Downtrend channel broken, could reverse here

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MACs and RSI close to break

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Waiting for ABCD pattern to emerge:

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Close to target, wedging

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Touchdown in zone, 35% filled at 8212

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More moderate targets now, weak bullish reaction, see chart

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Very weak reaction, setting SL to breakeven. Average buy 8202, SL 8214

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I fear further down

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Next 24 hours

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Bad if 0.618 (7238) is broken by much

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Bigger picture

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See new idea for further updates:

nighty2k7

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