Long

Long then short then long - big bearish butterfly BTCUSD?

Updated

Are we seeing a big bad bearish butterfly? If that is what it is then we should expect the right hand wing to be filled out pretty soon with the bands from the channel being the oscillations. Then we could expect that last leg that I thought would come to retest 2400 or maybe even 2200 though that's lower probability. After that we see strong support at both 2200 and 2400 with additional drive from FOMO that lots of folks would wanna buy up and get on the bandwagon "just like last time" so that would create a rally back up to test 3000. Bitfinex numbers.

I've snapped D to the 0.618 fib ret from the 3000-2000 correction, not knowing if this will hold. Thats at 2600 hence the current long. Maybe I'm wrong and it would jump up the next Fib Ret at about 2700.

Another reason for my continued idea of a test of either 2400 or 2200 is that we are really really overbought on the 1day chart, showing a big M that is being corrected down right now. See:

-- that's also bearish news. However, once we are down there - bam, there's really strong support going up.

I've done my trade: Long right now from 2500, making up my mind if I will stop loss at 2480 where the mid of the channel might be (and short down to 2400) then I will go long at 2400 and wait until the end of the wing of the butterfly, then short down to 2400 and finally go long up to 3000 over the next week(s) -- is what I think will happen.

*Let me know if the butterfly is really there* - else none of this might matter. Big picture: some correction down, then rebounce.

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This is what the butterfly looks like if it snaps on the 0.78 Fib Ret

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...and all this "down" idea comes from what I thought would align with Elliott wave down wards from last trade - again driven by that M on 1d MACD plus common sense, bounce from either 2200 or 2400 then retest 3000 :

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So far the trade is spot on!

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Will double check the dimensions ratios versus the normal patterns 2.bp.blogspot.com/--ZUaVl5QVBQ/Vc49DWVP8sI/AAAAAAAALBI/duXp_n0Z4eY/s1600/Untitled.png

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Hmmmm ... are we gonna break up through the .618 Fib Ret and aim for 2700? This is what D looks like in that scenario:

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I got the dimensions of the butterfly or whatever it is wrong, if its that - still, thats a big IF... then we would have to be looking at this crazy rally first:

WHOA!!

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First stop:

-- lets see if its a bat-ish?

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2700 - but just because its a Fib Ret line doesnt mean exit. I havent done correct dimensions on whatever is this beast - a bat? a butterfly? this will determine the correct location of D

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Come ooooonnn... break through 2620 properly!! :D

Trade closed: target reached

Thanks for listening and hope you enjoyed the ride - I'm here now:

This might be a little early - if it doesn't work out then the correction is coming and its a short. Lets see!

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Correction came and its a short now testing 2500

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its all according to plan haha

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now lets see if 2500 holds or not, else its down to 2420-2440 where the support is very strong as you can see

Trade active

After having closed out this deal when I was in doubt if it would break up at 2620 (with a profit) I've decided to get back at trading this one... I have put in a limit buy at 2440 with stop at 2400 should it want to test deeper down at 2200ish

Trade closed: target reached

We discussed it would go at least to 2440 either via 2600 or 2750. We are down here now.

There's a risk we will go further down to test the support at 2100 but lets see.

I bought up some more coin down here and I will buy more if we go further south and have an avg. price in between, thats fine since we will eventually bounce back up to test 3000

bernino

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