Bitcoin short term turning point, 14.800 or another big drop

Updated

It had made an H&S, wich you can see in my latest updates of my previous analysis. It has dropped back down to the neckline. It has to bounce up quickly now, otherwise chances are bigger it will make another drop. There are several support areas h=where it is hanging now, going long here with a stop of about 300 points is forth the risk for a target 1500 points higher

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So far so good, The red area is the first resistance area

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small H&S

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Sideways action, Thats what we have seen the last couple of days. I do think this was the last upwave, it almot reached the 14K, dont think we will see it anymore. I am lowering my overal stop to around 14.500 now. IF it drops below the 13K again, i will lower it to the 14K. I dont think this sideways action will take much longer and that the market will choose a direction today or tomorrow

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I expect something like this, making a bigger H&S. This is my last update for now

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In have added a few more at 13.800, i have a stop for the extra short position at 14.050

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And allt the stops went through at 14.050 and 14.350. Still a nice profit but ofcourse not what i was aiming for. There were a few signs that were bullish so i knew there was a chance that something like this could happen. That's why i had lowered all my stops. Stil no guarantee that it will only go up from here, the biggest resistance is around 16.500. Above this level than the bearish momentum is really over!

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Now i am 100% convinced that the price is being supported, since i was watching the price this afternoon i dit not see any big buy orders in the book. Around 13750 i saw a but order of 200 BTC, it was starting to get sold a bit, and i saw someone adding buy order to that same price. While the price did not go further up, BTC was not getting really bought, after like 10 minutes i saw another buy order of 200 BTC only 20 points below the other one, 15 minutes later the price broke out upwards. That's not all, just now the price was struggling a little bit with the 15.000, it broke through and immediatley i saw a buy order of 500+ BTC at 15.000. This is not normal buying an selling, this is manipulation!

Now the question ofcourse is, what does this mean for the price development. Some people want to push the price up, that's obvious now, but if fundamentals don't improve for BTC i don't really see this upswing having a long life. If price is able to stay above the 15.000 and a minimum of 14.500 for at least a few days, than things will improve. Otherwise i will only see this as a short term strategy. I am on the sideline now and waiting for a new moment to go short or maybe to go long, i will let the charts guide me

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And there is that single buy order of 500 BTC at 15.150 now

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And minute later is has moved to 15.200, lets see what this will mean

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I saw half was being sold with big orders of 25+ BTC, the last half i missed, the other half got cancelled or also sold!.

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It it stays above that blue line, expect another big wave up breaking out the flag. It could still drop out of it

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Lets see if volume kicks in as well

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In theory this flag could bring is to 16.000/16.500

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A took a while but now it seems it has broken out of the bullish flag, but volume is missing. If volume kicks in than 15.500m and 16.000 will not be that far away

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While everything looks bullih, making a breakout with volume! out of the 14K resistance, setting up a nice bullish flag to take out the 16K, than all of a sudden the conviction seems gone.
Like i said yesterday volume needed to kick in when it broke out of the flag, now we can see why. From this point it's just guessing what it will do. I favor down more than up now, but i am on the sideline again now and waiting

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It is makin an H&S now of 800 points. I took the Bitstamp chart because it gives a clearer picture. You could trade on this now with a small stop at the blue line or wait for the break of the neckline

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The blue line was around 15.000

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It just cant seem to push through the 15.200. Buying volume is missing.
This H&S looks allot like the one at 16.400. The right shoulder is getting to high and big, but something to keep in mind!

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Preparing to break out to the upside

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If this triangle holds as a flag, expect 16K pretty soon

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To stay very bullish it has to stay above the green area, than taking out the 15.400 will be a certainty. This is the third attempt now for the 15.400, if it does not succeed than there is a chance the bulls will give up for the short term and we will see a drop to maybe 14.500. But i think it's 90% sure it will break through the 15.400. This could be a nice trade with a stop around 15.100 with the potential of 15.800 or higher

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I am long for a small postition trade at 15.200, stop just below 15.100

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I have added a few at 15.140, stop around 15.070

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Above this line means bullish short momentum has the upper hand (higher highs and lows).

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On the small support line now, almost through the stop, unless it holds

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I am out, cant extend the stop anymore

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I find this drop very strange, even for a bear like me, this was an almost certainty it would go up further, the whole setup was there, the bullish flag from 13.800 and within the flag the higher highs and lows, it would have almost broken out. I just think games are being played, dont know what else to say now. Now it's starting to look pretty weak, ofcourse everything above 14.600 is bullish, 14.600 is a clear support while it got bought twice yesterday. My guess now it will drop to at least 14.700/14.600. But i am not trading on it, maybe if it drops below the 14.600 i will short it, untill them i dont want to burn my fingers on this sideways action

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coindesk.com/100-billion-controversy-xrps-surge-raises-hard-questions-ripple/

A passage of this article.

Instead, the 100 billion XRPs (the cryptocurrency's coded limit) are already available, with most under the control of Ripple itself. Ripple currently controls about 61 billion XRP, although in May (where the price ranged from 5 cents to 41 cents) the company announced it would move to lock up 55 billion XRP is escrow, to be released at a rate of 1 billion a month for at least four and a half years.

I knew a long time that they have more than half, but the releasing (sweet word for cashing out) is new for me. I think 95% of the buyers now dont even know what the real facts are. The other 5% is riding the wave and profiting of this. People are getting are getting insain!!

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Hello guys, i have been missing out of the action the last days 2 days. Bitcoin seems to have broken out, and negative momentum seems to be gone now. It could be making an H&S wich could bring it to the low 15K level, but most bullish scenario is if it stays above the 16K, and even better above the potential neckline. I dont know who is still buying BTC, but it geting bought, so no point arguing there :) For the bulls, 16.200/16.200 would be a nice stop for the ones who are long or want to go long now

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smaller time frame, lets see if 16.400 can hold

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The first small resistance has been overcome, now the bigger one at 16.730, around this level i have seen the most fighting the last couple of hourse. Above this level the road above 17K should be clear.

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16.400 is not gonna hold, 16.200 is more important!

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right after i said it, it jumped up :), i m going to make a trade with this triangle, above 16.600 i will go long, below 16.390 i will short it, both with a 200 points stop

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Sideways action going on, only short trades of 150/300 points or usefull now. Probably untill we see a breakout of the 16.730 (important level i mentioned in a previous update and the 16.200

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So the 16.730 was taken out in an instant with volume! Some did not want it to be an obstacle. As long as it stays within this pattern, all bullish. I did not go long because it did make a fake breakout downwards. My fingers were on the trigger but i did not pull it.
If the volume stays and it takes out the 17K again and the 17.100 this time, big chances it will go on towards the 17.500/18.000.
My gut feeling knows this market is beeing steered! But to wich level, 20K and above again? Or are some with big amounts of BTC seeking another good oppertunity to unload at higher prices again, between 17K and 18K.

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I am trying a small long now at 16.725

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Stop around 16.600, if it moves towards the 17K i will move the stop to my entry level.

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Now it's making an small bearish flag, i have moved up my stop to 16.680, or a very small loss.

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The flag is a bit to big now, i will use the grean area is my stop. Putting back at 16.600 again

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It seems to have turned the flag into a bullish wedge

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Now it has set itself up to break the 17K, it has to stay above the green area, otherwise sideways action will take much longer

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I see 2 options, the green and the blue line. Blus is most bullish, stays in that cirkel of the 1 min chart, or it drops out, stays above 16.600 and moves a few hours more sideways and than takes out the 17K

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It fll out of the smaller cirkel, now it will probably take a few hours more to take out the 17K

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I am out at 17.180

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Think it will make a small drop, should stay above the greaan area now, than we will see 17.500

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bullish flag, target 17.500/17.600

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The maximum drop for 17.500 stay a target, it 16.850

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And again Bitfinex seems to be pulling the rest higher, lets see how it plays out

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Spoofing active, 600 btc single order in the sell at 17.050

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I am going long at 16.870, stop about 100 under

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breakout price earlier, could be a good support

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And it bounced off perfectly, now it's tricky, looks like a small H&S, but i see a lot of them fail in this position. So my stop just a few points below my entry level now. If it does go up, i expect it to go towards the 17.500

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I am already out, few points loss. If 16.700 holds everything is stil bullish on the small time frame. Last update, good luck

botje11

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