Bitcoin Bull Flag or Top Formation, Part 2
Updated
Update i posted few hours ago in my previous analysis:
This is not exactly the reaction I expected to see, a small stable drop like this. Weird, several times support broke and we wicked back up in no time. Now acting like that never happened. Don’t know yet what to make of this
One thing that could be the reason for not seeing any volatility, that is the extreme high OI. Because i assume professional money doesn't simply let the market go against them, also assuming that when they are long on Bitmex for example, they prob have a big part of it hedged as well on spot. Could be the cause of why we did not see a big drop after 9200 clearly broke, with decent volume even. These same people supporting the price because of buying back the shorts on spot market. It's theoretical and we can't know what the main goal is.
What i do think is very likely though, is NOT seeing a big move as long as OI is this high. So think we will prob see a 100/300 point move first (up or down), OI dropping significantly, then seeing a big move with liquidations.
On the right we can see a blue line, now this is my guess of what might happen. Showing a stop hunt on both sides only to eventually create an ABC correction as i have shown on the right. This is of course assuming that Bitcoin will move like a normal asset :). We pumped quite a lot past weeks, so a correction should be normal, ideally making a bull flag. I know it will prob not happen :), but in case it does, we are prepared.
At the moment 9200ish is a clear resistance, but has been tested twice already today as resistance so don't think it has much value anymore. 9300/350 is the more important resistance, what also might be a stop loss zone.
A zoom here below, think that when the green breaks, the stop hunt scenario could play out. But think 9000ish should be the max. At the moment looks as if buyers are trying to break the 9200/9220
Now i am showing a lot of variables here, but it's just for the active day trader to be aware of more low time frame traps to appear. General idea is still a correction though. Because of the high OI, think something like the blue line is a likely option. Can also see that 8200ish is a key level for the mid-term.
Previous analysis:
This is not exactly the reaction I expected to see, a small stable drop like this. Weird, several times support broke and we wicked back up in no time. Now acting like that never happened. Don’t know yet what to make of this
One thing that could be the reason for not seeing any volatility, that is the extreme high OI. Because i assume professional money doesn't simply let the market go against them, also assuming that when they are long on Bitmex for example, they prob have a big part of it hedged as well on spot. Could be the cause of why we did not see a big drop after 9200 clearly broke, with decent volume even. These same people supporting the price because of buying back the shorts on spot market. It's theoretical and we can't know what the main goal is.
What i do think is very likely though, is NOT seeing a big move as long as OI is this high. So think we will prob see a 100/300 point move first (up or down), OI dropping significantly, then seeing a big move with liquidations.
On the right we can see a blue line, now this is my guess of what might happen. Showing a stop hunt on both sides only to eventually create an ABC correction as i have shown on the right. This is of course assuming that Bitcoin will move like a normal asset :). We pumped quite a lot past weeks, so a correction should be normal, ideally making a bull flag. I know it will prob not happen :), but in case it does, we are prepared.
At the moment 9200ish is a clear resistance, but has been tested twice already today as resistance so don't think it has much value anymore. 9300/350 is the more important resistance, what also might be a stop loss zone.
A zoom here below, think that when the green breaks, the stop hunt scenario could play out. But think 9000ish should be the max. At the moment looks as if buyers are trying to break the 9200/9220
Now i am showing a lot of variables here, but it's just for the active day trader to be aware of more low time frame traps to appear. General idea is still a correction though. Because of the high OI, think something like the blue line is a likely option. Can also see that 8200ish is a key level for the mid-term.
Previous analysis:
Note
New ETH analysis:
Note
So the green support held at 9150/20 and now market moved up. However, volume is quite good and seeing a strong move up. This is not how i expected to see a correctional move up, according to my shake out theory. So for now i am giving bulls the upper hand. 9500 resistance zone has not been touched yet and OI is also still very high at the moment. So at the moment i think a drop is not likely for the coming hours, prob sideways 9350/9500 or simply move up.
Meaning, at the moment i am not assuming a correctional move down, but this can change of course if we see some rejections coming hours or so
Note
First small sign of possible rejection we just had. Still not meaningful. When being bearish, think you need to see something like this coming hours, Some small bounces and rejections below 9500ish. Think 9350/80 is an important level for the bulls to hold. So when seeing some top formation coming hours and then seeing the green break, than my original thought might be in play
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