Following Past Halving Charts, BTC Expected to Surge!
Updated
Let's talk 2020 3rd Halving Coming in May
Bitcoin's halving is when the network’s issuance (inflation) rate is reduced by 50% every 4 years. This reduces the amount of new Bitcoin entering circulation every day and increases the mining costs.
How will it effect us in May based on history?
I broke it down into two focus points:
1st Halving: November 2012
These results show us that there was a significant increase in BTC prices as the halving neared. It also shows us the upward movement took place all 12 months leading up to the Halving Event. This is very important later in my modeling.
2nd Halving: July 2016
The charts look damn near identical in their formation, but the stats have dropped due to overall market maturation and volume. We no longer had 12 full months of growth ahead of the halving. Upward movement this time began in October 2015, giving us 9 months of upward movement. We also saw a huge run-up after the halving which is consistent with the 1st Halving as well.
3rd Halving: Late May 2020
What should we expect for the halving in late May 2020? First, let's factor in decay over time from Halving 1 to Halving 2:
Continuation of the same modeling, we should expect to see the following things:
What Are My Price Targets?
For the model to hold up, we would need to see an upward trend that starts 6 months out. Confirmation of this printed true after saw BTC double bottom in November/very early Dec. 2019 at about $6,500. We have since began moving upward from there, which is VERY consistent with the model. If things are to hold true, we should expect the following:
Interestingly enough, $14,000 BTC aligns with a major resistance zone from June 2019 too. I am full on bullish and I realistically see the times of 4 digit BTC nearly gone. Let me know what your thoughts are on this analysis and if think differently!
Bitcoin's halving is when the network’s issuance (inflation) rate is reduced by 50% every 4 years. This reduces the amount of new Bitcoin entering circulation every day and increases the mining costs.
How will it effect us in May based on history?
I broke it down into two focus points:
- 1 year leading up to the halving event
- Time to reach the All Time High (ATH)
1st Halving: November 2012
- Nov. 2011 - Nov. 2012: 341% increase
- Nov. 2012 - All Time High: 7,976% increase
These results show us that there was a significant increase in BTC prices as the halving neared. It also shows us the upward movement took place all 12 months leading up to the Halving Event. This is very important later in my modeling.
2nd Halving: July 2016
- July 2015 - July 2016: 112% increase
- July 2016 - All Time High: 2,867% increase
The charts look damn near identical in their formation, but the stats have dropped due to overall market maturation and volume. We no longer had 12 full months of growth ahead of the halving. Upward movement this time began in October 2015, giving us 9 months of upward movement. We also saw a huge run-up after the halving which is consistent with the 1st Halving as well.
3rd Halving: Late May 2020
What should we expect for the halving in late May 2020? First, let's factor in decay over time from Halving 1 to Halving 2:
- Pre-Halving: 25% reduction in time spent in upward movement (12 months to 9 months)
- Pre-Halving: 67% decline in overall gains
- Post-Halving: 64% decline in overall gains
- Post-Halving: 48% increase in time to reach All Time High
Continuation of the same modeling, we should expect to see the following things:
- Pre-Halving: 6 months of upward movement
- Pre-Halving: 75% in Total Gains
- Post-Halving: 1836% in Total Gains
What Are My Price Targets?
For the model to hold up, we would need to see an upward trend that starts 6 months out. Confirmation of this printed true after saw BTC double bottom in November/very early Dec. 2019 at about $6,500. We have since began moving upward from there, which is VERY consistent with the model. If things are to hold true, we should expect the following:
- $14,000 BTC at the end of May
- $271,000 BTC All Time High 714 Days Post-Halving
Interestingly enough, $14,000 BTC aligns with a major resistance zone from June 2019 too. I am full on bullish and I realistically see the times of 4 digit BTC nearly gone. Let me know what your thoughts are on this analysis and if think differently!
Note
Hope you all managed to catch this run up. I'm confident we've just seen the last four-digit BTC for the near future!Note
Checking in from 2021. 11 months later and the chart holds true. The beginning of the charting is off due to the pandemic hitting and disrupting markets, but the bounce back to my predictive trend line was just another confirmation that BTC will be moving up and quickly. I really do hope you all have been buying these past few years. Had you have bought $10,000 worth of BTC at the time of my writing, you'd currently have $25,770 in your bank account from doing absolutely nothing but buying $10,000 worth of BTC 11 months ago.
Note
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