BTC Price Channel & Forecast (2/28/2018)

Updated

In the short term, BTC looks to be in a descending channel and its price action is conforming to it rather well. I'm inclined to think that it may start floating down towards the bottom range of the triangle by the end of this week, but could get slowed down by the support levels at 10k and 9500. Furthermore, my quant model forecasts a BTC price level of $8592 (+/- $400) given the current. Combining the chart and quant model make 9k level a 0.50 probability for this week.

Note

Got this one wrong. The market pushed through the triangle with a little strength and now appears they are setting the bottom range at 10k. My prob for retest to the 9k levels are below 0.50 now. I would presume only a negative and unexpected catalyst will take BTC and the market back to those levels now.

Note

My timing was one week off. the original logic and model forecast were correct, but my timing was off by a week. Seems to be a consistent trend that I need to adjust for moving forward.

Note

After a week my quant model prediction turned out to be pretty accurate with btc hanging around the 8300-8600 range for the past few days with a subsequent fall to below 8k last night (3/14/2018). Once btc fell back into the downward channel and didn't breakout, I knew it was just a matter of time for it retested 8k.

At this point because it is oversold, I expect a brief reprieve in prices before it retests the crucial support area of 7600. If that level does not hold, I expect a drop to 5500 at best or a drop to 3500 at worst given the double top recently created.

Note

I am unsure on the timing for this retest and/or eventual descent, but my timing has been about one week too early as of late. So, I will expect a meandering of prices through the weekend with a possible news catalyst for the retest mid-next week.

Note

btc retested 7500-7600 level tonight which is earlier than expected. we will see how the rest of the weekend shapes up and the following week. it is probable that it will test 7500 multiple times before breaking through and heading off to 5500 level. I rate tonight as being the breakthrough night as low probability. We will see if this test breaks tonight or holds as one of multiple eventual tests before failing.

Note

BTC fell as far as 7k this past weekend and maybe a little lower. It seemed to be ready to test 5500 sooner than anticipated, but has since pulled back with a large relief rally. BTC is currently sitting around 9k which is resistance. With positive news out of the G20 may help it hang around this level for another few days or even breakthrough before pulling back. I expect a test of 7k as a lower probability now for the week.

Note

Retest of 7k level occurred and went even further. As of this week of April 1, there has been a slight relief rally which seems to be fading on the 4 hour charts. I expect another retest of 6k level with expectation of further dip later this week at about 50% probability.

cbrookins

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