Bitcoin doing April 2018 rally gain? Alts have started already
Updated
With the alts rallying since yesterday, i began thinking if this is April 2018 again, but with a slow start of the alts. Back then when Bitcoin squeezed up from the 6K zone to the 8K, then moving in a range of 7800 and 8400 (same as now, but think that's just a coincidence). Making bounces up from the range lows up to the highs and back down again, like now, confusing bulls and bears on the short term. Eventually the alts started to grow when nearing the end of this consolidation. To make a confession, i actually noticed just now that alts were not really rallying the first days of the consolidation, just as we have seen the past week (until yesterday). I used to have much more time then to do real research like this, looking at all the info out there and comparing things to find possible patterns.
Anyway, the yellow circles are the same moment back in April 2018. Where we can see didn't start the second leg until the end of the consolidation. Alts started almost 2 days before Bitcoin really pushed up at the green zone. Something we are seeing now as well. The blue circle bottom left shows where we are probably back in April 2018 (compare with blue area on the top left).
This would mean, we could see another good push up based on this very soon. Normal TA has not really worked past few days, there were a few moments, but very random and crazy moves sometimes. 500 point dumps and than back up again just to drop 500 points again. It was quite confusing back in April 2018 as well. The market was also very bearish in the 6K zone then, we had a similar situation past half year, but this time much more significant period. The strange movements might be the exchange from Bitcoin to alts past days.
I am seriously very curious to see if the crypto market can pull this off again. You know i have been bullish since the Dec 2018 lows and kept looking up on the bigger picture since, but i had not expected to see this, not even in my wildest dreams. I thought 6000 would be very good and 6600 would be a huge step already. To go drop again from those levels to test supports. Only then would i determine if the retest will be successful or not. But it just kept shooting without even looking back anymore. The alts coin market cap chart i started to analyse since a few months ago, almost perfectly suggested all of this. But it's just a chart and a pattern which sometimes fail when doing TA. So you start to think, what would be able to push this market so far up again. Where would all the confidence and money come from to do that. After such a nightmare year for the long term HODLers, almost everyone loosing all confidence. Think we have all read the comment sections and all the bearish TA predicting prices to 1000 even. When people asked me halfway the Nov 2018 dump, how low can it go. Well only sensible thing i could say was, how the F should i know ;) (just kidding). Nobody could tell, not me not anyone, we could all make assumptions. I did however say a few times, that i don't think this market can handle a drop below the 2K, maybe not even below the 3K. So what i am trying to say is, sometimes FA is the boss. It's actually always is the boss, but with TA we try to spot the intentions of the market and through that actually also the fundamentals (and it's potential). But when is one more important than the other. We can all just make assumptions and judgement calls.
I am already writing too long, because in the mean time it was about to break up, but all of a sudden a lot of big market sells. I just posted a screenshot of my Tick chart, showing something a bit strange, possibly explaining these big market sells.
Something i wrote half day ago in my public channels, part of that message:
Looks like the crypto market is not thinking about making a correction. Bitcoin is less clear, but that one is also still buy the dip.
Anyway, few days ago I said I was not convinced of the rally, because alts were not even close to confirming the sentiment. Since yesterday that has clearly changed now.
This is starting to look like April 2018, where bitcoin was moving around 7800/8400 for 2 weeks or so and alts were exploding in the meantime. Week ago we were not seeing it for several days even, the reason why I was having doubts. Now we can not ignore it anymore. What the potential will be, i really can’t say clearly. Maybe based on the consolidation now, we could say 9k maybe.
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Previous analysis:
Anyway, the yellow circles are the same moment back in April 2018. Where we can see didn't start the second leg until the end of the consolidation. Alts started almost 2 days before Bitcoin really pushed up at the green zone. Something we are seeing now as well. The blue circle bottom left shows where we are probably back in April 2018 (compare with blue area on the top left).
This would mean, we could see another good push up based on this very soon. Normal TA has not really worked past few days, there were a few moments, but very random and crazy moves sometimes. 500 point dumps and than back up again just to drop 500 points again. It was quite confusing back in April 2018 as well. The market was also very bearish in the 6K zone then, we had a similar situation past half year, but this time much more significant period. The strange movements might be the exchange from Bitcoin to alts past days.
I am seriously very curious to see if the crypto market can pull this off again. You know i have been bullish since the Dec 2018 lows and kept looking up on the bigger picture since, but i had not expected to see this, not even in my wildest dreams. I thought 6000 would be very good and 6600 would be a huge step already. To go drop again from those levels to test supports. Only then would i determine if the retest will be successful or not. But it just kept shooting without even looking back anymore. The alts coin market cap chart i started to analyse since a few months ago, almost perfectly suggested all of this. But it's just a chart and a pattern which sometimes fail when doing TA. So you start to think, what would be able to push this market so far up again. Where would all the confidence and money come from to do that. After such a nightmare year for the long term HODLers, almost everyone loosing all confidence. Think we have all read the comment sections and all the bearish TA predicting prices to 1000 even. When people asked me halfway the Nov 2018 dump, how low can it go. Well only sensible thing i could say was, how the F should i know ;) (just kidding). Nobody could tell, not me not anyone, we could all make assumptions. I did however say a few times, that i don't think this market can handle a drop below the 2K, maybe not even below the 3K. So what i am trying to say is, sometimes FA is the boss. It's actually always is the boss, but with TA we try to spot the intentions of the market and through that actually also the fundamentals (and it's potential). But when is one more important than the other. We can all just make assumptions and judgement calls.
I am already writing too long, because in the mean time it was about to break up, but all of a sudden a lot of big market sells. I just posted a screenshot of my Tick chart, showing something a bit strange, possibly explaining these big market sells.
Something i wrote half day ago in my public channels, part of that message:
Looks like the crypto market is not thinking about making a correction. Bitcoin is less clear, but that one is also still buy the dip.
Anyway, few days ago I said I was not convinced of the rally, because alts were not even close to confirming the sentiment. Since yesterday that has clearly changed now.
This is starting to look like April 2018, where bitcoin was moving around 7800/8400 for 2 weeks or so and alts were exploding in the meantime. Week ago we were not seeing it for several days even, the reason why I was having doubts. Now we can not ignore it anymore. What the potential will be, i really can’t say clearly. Maybe based on the consolidation now, we could say 9k maybe.
Please don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Previous analysis:
Note
Looked like it was breaking up just before i went to sleep at 8400. But seems we are still in the zigzag mode. It was a tough choice for me to think we might rally much more coming weeks or so (because i did not really believe in a change of the market yet). But as mentioned above, all of a sudden there were many signs i just could not deny. Past days i assumed, we would be in the blue area possibly (in a bullish version outlook). But because the alts squeezed up, i assumed we were in that yellow circle, just as a year ago. This drop does not fit that picture. When ignoring alts and looking at the previous rally, would say we are in the green zone now.
When looking at some of the alts, from the short list i am looking at, have dropped 20% from the highs, which is not really convincing about thinking the market sentiment is really bullish and strong.
At this point, i need to get back to my 'drawing board' and try to rethink everything. I always try to get factors in my favor, have odds in my favor when choosing a direction. But i honestly have nothing convincing at this point. Think i am going to keep things for what they are coming day or 2 and hopefully a fresh mind will help me to find the direction of the market short and mid-term.
I don't like to admit that i don't know it at this point, but better to do that than trying to do a guessing game.
All i can say is, if we see a bounce up again from Bitcoin and alts respond very bullish again, than it will bring this analysis back alive again.
You have to see it like i was on the main road until the 6K levels past half year, but from that point on i took a wrong turn and i just can't find the high way again since because my navigation broke down in an unknown part of the country. Because i never expected such a hug rally to happen the past months. It got me completely off guard as mentioned a week ago.
Note
If this pattern can hold, something we saw a few days ago as well, than we might be able to go up again if it breaks the resistance. But also feels like a shake out game is going on. Shaking out shorts at the high, but to shake out some longs it should brake the 7600. So a dip to like 7400/7500 is also an option for me.Like the chart in the previous update also shows a year ago. This channel/wedge is seems to be legitNote
So far following the same path. Broke out as well already, also making a bull flag it seems. So we could see another push up. Looks like a big resistance now around 8100/8150Note
New alt coin market cap analysis:
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