Based on the 2013-2015 bubble, it appears that bitcoin could follow a similar path. The $6000-$5700 support line has held so far, but it appears that buyers are running out of money. The overall market sentiment is bearish (just like 2014/15), news keeps coming out that seems overwhelmingly positive yet the price does not react (just like 2014/15), a major negative headline about bitcoin would likely tip the scales and push the price south. Because bitcoin costs money to produce, the bottom will likely occur at or near a point where bitcoin mining stops being profitable. Larger US and Canadian mining facilities (I can't speak to china or the rest of the world), typically have rates of around $0.04 - $0.06/kWh, which based on an S9 miner translates to a break even price (not including overhead and maintenance costs) of approximately $2500 - $3700. This seems like a reasonable bottom and also corresponds to the 87% drop seen in the 2014 bubble.
If you have bitcoin and don't need the money, it probably makes the most sense to hold it and wait it out in hopes of the next bubble to ~$250k, and start to buy once the RSI reaches sub 40 levels. I have marked the low capitulation spikes of the previous bubble for comparisons.
Also shout out to Willy Woo for pointing out the Historic Volatility as it related to the previous bubble, looks like its got some room to fall as well.
This is just an idea, my only advice: never bet more than you can lose, you haven’t made money until you’ve sold, hodling works better than trading for most, and when the crowd starts to lose its mind around you (it will), learn to keep a level head and try to have enough information to move with purpose and rationality.
If you have bitcoin and don't need the money, it probably makes the most sense to hold it and wait it out in hopes of the next bubble to ~$250k, and start to buy once the RSI reaches sub 40 levels. I have marked the low capitulation spikes of the previous bubble for comparisons.
Also shout out to Willy Woo for pointing out the Historic Volatility as it related to the previous bubble, looks like its got some room to fall as well.
This is just an idea, my only advice: never bet more than you can lose, you haven’t made money until you’ve sold, hodling works better than trading for most, and when the crowd starts to lose its mind around you (it will), learn to keep a level head and try to have enough information to move with purpose and rationality.
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Looks like we could break down to the $5400-$4900 support zone. Hope this zone holds or it looks like $3000ish
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just looking at past Q4 performances, it appears the only bad q4 (and it wasnt terrible) bitcoin had was back in 2014.
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well it took a little longer than expected, but were droppingNote
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I keep adding to this chart, but note the RSI cross. Since I am clearly making the comparison, if this was 2014, we would likely be in the $450 range which means another 60% to the bottom. That being said, it would have been a great buy if you held until the 4th quarter of 2017 (3 years).Note
one more case for the $2800 - $3000 (like you need one)
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.