BTCUSD - my actual understanding of the game
Updated
Impressive as they were, rebounds from the bulls stronghold at 10.900 failed to immediately retake fib levels beyond fib 0.78 of the bullish wavefront at 15.800, which would have justified to consider the recent contraction a mere downward spike, quickly bought up to approach new targets above 19.500. Taking into account that yesterday's contraction took us fairly below fib 0.61 of the deviation from the old long term-trend channel at around 12.950, I expect we will experience further contraction moves now, which may result in one or another test of at least the 12.950 ("bulls gate") or even the stronghold or "balance zone" at 10.900, forming a double bottom. These further tests will become decisive of what I expect to happen till mid January or even later. A consolidation of prices above 12.950 will indicate a strong bullish reversal & new all time highs. On the other hand, a break though the 11.900 stronghold could indicate the end of this game. In such case, I expect prices to assume a new trend, if fib 0.38 of the deviation from the original trend can be maintained at around 8.900. Otherwise I expect the wave to slowly die out in a return to the old long-term trend at around 2.400.
Note
my old december 21- assessment seems still sound to me - there is is clearly a lot of bull power here & we might come to see new highs soon.
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