Long

Bitcoin. Opportunity of a lifetime. Too good to be true?

Updated

Hello fellow warriors. I had 2 ideas that sounded too good to be true in the past 10 days, and they both resulted in INCREDIBLE profits.
This all sounds too good to be true, but I have made so much gains.

In January riding the alts, I made so many times 15-30% I stopped keeping track.
I had an excel file where I noted it all but I gave up on that. I made 15% on Cardano in I think 1 hour. I rode Tron when it had its crazy bull run, what a night oh what a night,
I did it all the night Binance shut down for maintenance these hours felt very very long.I kept getting in and out of it taking 5-10% every time. Took 30% on XLM. Etc...

But in February came the time to finally short. For simplicity reasons I have shorted Bitcoin, sent some money to Kraken to margin trade and got started.
Alot of traders have been shorting XRP while looking at the BTC to produce greater results, but at the point where I DOUBLED my money on Kraken in one day,
do I need to try and make even more? And after that we get offered a short on a golden plate at 9k. It doesn't get more free than that.

We are always prepared for all the realistic possibilities, and right now these are:
- We go up rejecting downtrend resistance
- We go up test 9.5k (a bit below that), looking to short. The 4HR RSI probably very high att hat point which decreases our risk.
- We go down to 6k! I'll be buying Sparta mode in case of a double bottom and with NO STOP LOSS. BUT I will use small sizing (NOT GOING ALL IN).
- We go down to somewhere in the 4500-5500 region. Buy more the lower it goes. If we fall below the downtrend we can start worrying, cut our losses maybe keep 10% in and wait for next move.

If we get low, a reason a bounce could be magnified is what is happening in the stock market.
You are a smart investor, here are your possibilites:

- Stock market ==> Crashing, no one knows where it will end.
- Gold ==> +1000000000000000% in 15 years (not sure about the exact numbers :p). On a giant downtrend for years. It is so high. So huge. Anyone looking for some returns won't look at that.
- Crypto ==> A new exciting sector that is finally getitng recognition and being taken seriously. Has provided incredible results over the years.

Do you think it's unrealistic to expect investors that took money out of the stock to put 5% of that into crypto? TRILLIONS have been erased from the markets.
The whole market cap of crypto is a few hundred billions. Makes you wonder...

Looking at things generally, this is especially useful if you are new;
You have to put your hard earned money somewhere. Here are your options:

- Keep it in a safe at home. 0% return.
- Let a bank keep it. Bankers take a cut. 1% return.
- Invest it in the markets. Traders take profit. 5% return or more. You give your money to a project to help it grow and get ROI for it. But you take risks, and have to survive the waves.
==> While inflation being greater than 1%. So you actually LOSE money if you do nothing with it.
Imagine an old timer that carefully saved half of his monthly earning every month in 1960-1965 100$ a month, he earned 12000$ in 5 years and saved 60000$ enough to buy a house, can 60k buy you a house now?

If you take the market route so your money does not shring over the years, you should be looking at 2 ways to do it:
1) Dollar cost average. Reaaaaally simple. Put 500$ in every month without worrying about the price.
2) Look at strong long term supports. Buy then.
3) FOMO in the 2000's when Cisco breaks 50$ put your life savings in. 50k We are getting close to 80$! Life savings turned to 80k! WOW. It fell and never went that high. Stayed around 15-25$ for years.
It is still under 50$ today. Good job. Would have missing out be that bad?

And don't forget to diversify. Back in the 1600's investors would buy shares off ships expeditions so they wouldn't lose everything if the 1 ship they invested in got boarded by pirates.
It's how stocks really got started imo.

Note: this time it's riskier!

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Unlike my previous ideas that came to fruition, this is just looking at a (strong) possibility.
This idea is NOT easy NOT safe NOT free money NOT guarenteed, there is risk!

Right now a battle is going on, can't know for sure what direction we go.
All I am sure of is there will be bounces at 6k and the levels below if we go below 6k. Will this be the recovery? Or just a small bounce before going lower?
I would be surprised to see Bitcoin under 4k and Bitcoin will not go under 2k. Nope. Keep dreaming Wall Street.

We might also bounce a bit over 6k.
The mid 2017 mean line is still close to 6k.

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Depending on what happens in the next couple of days/weeks I'll post this idea:

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Lol unless that's what's happening right now, crypto moves so damn fast!

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Don't have too much expectations on Bitcoin getting that cheap again.
If it does cool we're handed an opportunity, but we already went down to 7850 so maybe that was it, that was the pullback.
A break of the trendline is very much possible now.
If that happens I'll just be shorting BTC at 9500.
Maybe long it on the break if I'm at home.
If it does go down thought, oh I'll be ready.
But not going to hope too much.

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Stuff to watch for:

I'll enter if we go above 9200 or 9500 and consolidate there.
I might or might not wait for the daily close.

Can't wait to go back to going long on Binance!
I want to take small trades in the train using their app!
It goes up everybody wins everybody is happy, it is going to be spring soon.

What would be awesome is we get a straight line up from the start of spring to end of may, just like last year:

That chart would make a great desktop wallpaper!

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And the year before that (2016):

Beautiful days ahead. Hope we revisit 6 to 8k I'll buy then and chill out for 2+ months.
Might take a couple shittrades for fun in the meantime :>
If we get to spring unhidered, NOTHING will be able to stop Crypto rise, except Tether...Will be scary and bloody, but an opportunity to buy cheap for Spatans.
SPARTAAAA!

I don't really know what to make of 2015, maybe it was too early for BTC, or bad weather, or MtGox still hurting - probably MtGox:

2014 looks bad, thanks MtGox.

2013:

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No matter how bad Tether can turn out to be, it won't bring 2 years of depressing bear market like MtGox did, Coincheck hack barely did anything and there was more money involved than in MtGox. Tether is 4 times the money lost by coincheck I think?

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Stuff to watch for atm:

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Selling when 4HR RSI gets oversold and then looking to buy the dip if there is one.

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Maybe these lines still mean something:

On the short term, it could keep going 15% up 10% down
but I won't expect it too much:

Just going to buy on supports sell when we climbed 15%+ and expect
a bigger dip when 4hr rsi is high.

Going small sizing and dumbmode like a robot rince and repeat, generate a bit of consistent profit.
Already at 3.5% profit on 10% of my main account doing nothing , ready to sell close to 9500.

Untill we get a clear signal, which could be in a couple of weeks.

Trade active

Taking small trades while waiting for BTC to show a clear signal on the end of the correction or not.
Bought some at 8650. Making sure we stay on an uptrend. Will monitor how 9k 9200 and 9500 resistance breaks play, don't really expect it to be broke through but who knows.
Staying in as long as we're on an uptrend.

Trade closed manually

Out at 1.2% profit. We seem to have lost the uptrend.
9k might get tested again, might not.
Going to set buy order on 8000-8100 should we go there.

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Still waiting

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If we go above 8672 I'm buying, not really expecting huge gains here but let's see

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ITS A BREAK BREAK BREAKING AAAAAH

Trade active

Let's go to the moon.

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Only bought a relatively small amount, buying on breaks is riskier than buying on support. Glad we are/might be out of bore zone.

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If we pullback a little as short term rsi's calm down, and the blue line acts as support, I'll buy a bit more, probably up to 20-30% of my trading account.

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Why I no look at short timeframe?

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Not expecting a "hooooge" move on this break either, but we could go test 9k, maybe even break that.

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Still on the same uptrend for the past 12 hours or so
Not worried as long as we maintain it.

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Setting an alert at the low and at the high of the mother bar, and a stop loss right under the low of the mother bar at 8440, and staying away from the chart, not much to do here.
Just gambling with good odds. As long as the sizing is small on these things, it will generate profit on average.

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In the middle, market has no idea what it wants. Feels 50/50 at this point -.-
I thought I had at least a 60% chance lol I'm not so sure anymore

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There is no way of knowing if we go up or down or nowhere in the next couple dozen hours, I'm just watching and I'll respect the decision the market makes.
But right now the different things we can look at are in favor of the bulls.

Setting a stop loss slightly above my buy price and if I get stopped I'll be looking to buy back in depending on where we pullback to.

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In the eventuality we see a big spike, break of 9500 and go up up up to let's say 10000 or 10500, it would be time to sell and take profit. After that we get a significant pullback, maybe test 9500 as support, I'll be buying back there.
That would be pretty awesome, but not getting my hopes up.

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Bought a bit more at 8775, wanted to buy lower but my train got in a tunnel.
We're still on an uptrend since yesterday.
This guys is right for once :D ==>

BTC - Sentiment Change - Triangles and Rounded Bottoms

People are starting to wonder if they should buy now, less people scared that we go lower. If we go above 9k, and then it acts as support, I'll buy a bit more with a stop loss 50$ below 9000, something like that.
I am about 50% in by now.

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About to close above the neckline of the large inverted head & shoulder. This adds one reason to think we go up. GG

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Spiking hard right now, but I wouldn't risk buying yet. Going to wait for some kind of pullback or consolidation. Short time frames RSI are close to overbought.
The 4 HR RSI is close to the highest it's been since we were at 14-16k a couple of weeks ago, which is a good sign.

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Comparing these days to the last dump.
If we go above 9500 I see a big move up happening. To the moon!
It will be followed by a big correction thought (not a crash, just a "healthy" correction).

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Damn we went above 9200.
I don't think we can go above 9500 like this. Not that it's impossible, but it would be crazy. I'll wait for a pullback...
Already 50% in. I want to bring that number to 100% with a stop loss right under the consolidation/pullback, whereever that will be.
Lmao at the people that were calling dips below 6k. "100% sure we go to 4k or 5k" Ye sure mate.

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I think breaking 9500 is very possible, just not right now. Might happen in a couple of hours (or days?), after we pulled back. That seems more likely.

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Orders set in the 9000-9050 range. I hope we get a healthy correction here to refuel before launching the spaceship again. When (or if?) we get there, I'll put a stop loss right under 9k.

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Here we go... pulling back as expected. Order at 9000-9050 waiting.

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What's this you say? The highest buy volume in 15 minutes we saw since december?

100% going to 4k guarenteed Kappa. Excellent call thanks for your money.
(Just to be clear if you're not an english speaker: we are not going to 4k...not for a long time at least)

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Last times that many Bitcoins were bought in so little time was when we fell from 20 to 11k, and before that somewhere on the way from 10 to 20k when the public got onboard all excited and everything.
Might be our whale spiritual guides leading the way.
Oh great whales, show us the way.

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I'm also looking at this:

I guess my 9k buy orders won't get filled till we go test 9400-9500...
Let's see where we go from there...
Do we close the day over 9500? Do we keep going up way up, till we come crashing down (to 9000 or 9500)? Will we correct to 8000-8500?

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1HR RSI down to 63 and we haven't crashed yet, might be a good sign.
Wonder where we'll be when (if?) rsi gets to 45-50.
I'll probably buy MOAR then.

Would have made more money from LTC, 30% instead of a lame 8, but I have a job so it's hard to follow several charts at the same time...feelsbadman my job making me lose hundreds on a daily basis.

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Wtf is going on? We are ready to go up already? We can't be.
Don't fomo, it's ok to miss out.

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I have no idea what that move was, but I don't trust it, it smells bad.I don't mind getting free money. But whatever happens I'll buy when we either dip or consolidate for a time I consider sufficient.

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Daily candle closing in 30 minutes...Going to be bullish.
Watch out 4HR RSI closing danger zone.

I completely can imagine going up to 9500-10000 then correcting to 8, 8.5 or 9k (9k much more liekly than below I think). At that point I'll go in big, at worse I make 1-2% off the bounce, at best it's the start of a wonderful trade that makes me 25% on my whole binance account lol.

This link goes in the direction of saying March and April are some of the best months for investors (December nbr 1 this is when we get all the bubbles), and february the worse one:
moneychimp.com/features/monthly_returns.htm

Now I would link to find some data about volatility, but I bet April is going to be the less volatile month (sadface). Guess that's when I'll take a 1 month trade and take a break or go margin...

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If we could just go to 9k and not below now, that would be perfect, I would add more, looking for a longer time trade, can't really day trade while havign a job.
If we go to 9k and it holds I'll bring my 50% in to 80 or more, with a tight stop loss.

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I never was able to buy more :(
I got a shot when we fell to 9150-9200 but I was in commute.
Buying now would be too risky. But for anyone in, it's safe to stay in a bit more.
Just use a trailing stop loss. Not impossible that spaceship goes to 11k+.
I'm not sure, but I think there's a small chance people calling 9k rejection and BTC dropping to 3-4k wrong and insane, not sure (lolololo).
We did go to the moon.
At 13% profit since that inside bar break.

TA works pretty damn well when you do it within a context, like this time we saw this uncertain consolidated market, then it gave a strong buy signal broke all resistances, clearly saying "I want to go up". Not 100% but the odds were pretty damn good.

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If we go visit 9.5k and I'm in front of my PC I'll buy more, with a stop loss right under, maybe 9450.
So far it's going according to the disgusting drawing I made 1 month ago and posted in my idea "Crypto isn't predictable". I think it's possible or even likely we are going to go visit the trendline, or close to 6k at some point, but even if that happens, after we'll go way up and never go back there again.
The prophecy is fulfilling itself!

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Spot where it would be relatively safe to buy if this was it, depending on indicators and what the price does (such as whether or not it goes to 9k then that holds):

Trade closed: stop reached

Got stopped at 9699 15% profit. Im in commute. Ill watch chart and set buy orders in 1-2 hours, if possible.
Hoping fall slows at 9500, then we go consolidate at 9000 or 9200, that would be perfect.

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My bad didn't put the origin of the move up at the right price, I was gettign ready to go to work.
This is better:

As trading view suggests, buying in the red zone is usually risky, the green zone is allright, you can consider buying with an eye on indicators & make sure it doesn't go lower.
From that we can expect a bounce somewhere in the 8900-9200 zone, but it's not guarenteed either. 9150-9200 is a strong support, so even if that's not "THE stop" of the pullback or "THE bounce", I expect it to hold at least for a while.

We could also stay above 9500, but I'd rather miss out than take that risk.

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This is the latest where I expect us to go re-test lows at 8, 7 or maybe even 6k (ish):

All we have to do is survive the winter, untill spring starts and we launch into infinity!
And pray we don't get a giant hack or something like this.
Pray to the whale gods. They listen. They are love they are all that is.

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People comparing it to 2014, really? That's funny. People probably saw some chart that vaguely has a ressemblance and think they're visionaries.
They forgot 1 small detail: GDAX. Huge hack. Everyone dead. Gdax was 90% of Bitcoin trading. It was hard to even acquire Bitcoins before that, if I read correctly, getting Bitcoin before the first exchanges was a challenge you had to go through some asian server proxy or idk what.

None of all this matters anyway, there's just 2 things to do:

- Long term investing: plan is to buy a bit of everything, a bit every month/semester/whatever so the price fluctuations don't matter to you, when something is up 600% in 3 days you don't buy; look at long term supports, etc...

- Trading: long term predictions are fun and all, but what you do is follow the market, the market does not care what you want or think should happen. Just buy dips, jump on buy signals, and take profits over and over. Try to be aware of most realistic scenarios and act depending on which one seems to be unfolding.

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I meant MtGox wtf xd

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Since 6k we've been going 14-20% up and dropping 7-10%, except that time where we dropped 13%.
Dropping 9% now we place us right above 9000.
It could drop further after, idk, but I'll be ready if it happens.

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Should we go down now, I'll play the 9200 bounce, and then the 8900 if we go there, etc...8600...8200

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Posting what I posted in my other idea.
Either fantastic gains or BTC gets slapped and we fall hard.
Won't leave my PC.

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If we break the ~11300 wall and the downtrend it will be the "opportunity of a lifetime".
I have nothing left to buy more, almost all in on BTC since 10100 & in ETH since 950.
Nothing is ever 100% you have to be careful, but my recommendation if we break 11300? Oh man. You probably won't have time to buy so it doesn't matter.
The bots and conditional orders will make the price spike before anyone can react and the exchanges will lag... Well at least Binance I'm sure of that. But if you can buy on a break of 11300 & downtrend do that, and set a stop loss under 11300 watch make sure we now stay above.

I don't think it's safe to buy now, if we get slapped by this wall we can drop really fast. Since I'm in @ 10100 I'll have time to react without taking a loss should we crash down.

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If we go the up way, I just know there's someone out there that bought at 19k, finally panic sold at 6k, and is going to wake up one day and see "Bitcoin at 50.000, was MacAfee right?" :D. That guy will either:
- Do the right thing and cut his veins on the spot
- Make a twitter to spread fear about Tether, and post dozens of messages EVERY DAY (someone really did that lol)
So cringe.

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For investors and traders alike, the next couple of days are going to be the most important of the year...

If we go to the "biggest bubble of all time" you'll want to get in early, not in june or december when Bitcoin is priced at 50-100k...
Keep an eye on ETH also... And NEO...

Grabbing the popcorn and listening to some epic music.

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Let's go to battle. I hope Bitcoin falls to around 9800 or 9500, this has to happen for it to be ready for the great battle ahead of it!

MrRenev

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