Grab the Champagne, Volatility is Back in Bitcoin

Updated

I am a happy man again since almost a month now, not because of the trading profits, i did trade some of these waves but all small positions and short rides. But now we are able to analyze the charts again instead of guessing and figuring out the plan of the Big Boys. 1000 points up and down in less than 2 days, i can't even remember when that happened the last time :)

I can't believe i am posting this chart, it almost goes against my big game plan that i had for quite some time now. Since the 6K levels i was calling that we needed to shake out all the bears AND that we needed to make them bulls again. Here is my confession, they ALMOST made me a bull :) LOL. So i almost tricked my self as well. That's why having a plan upfront is important (sometimes), so you can fall back on that instead of getting caught up in all the emotions of this market. I mentioned a few days or a week ago, that i was starting to get the same feeling we (and i) had during that rally from the 6K to the 11K. That blue period back than was a very confusing week for me, almost the same is the blue area we had last week. This time i was less stubborn, also made short trades there but also long trades. Even i am still learning every day, with my almost 20 years experience.

My biggest (confusing) issue NOW was, that we did nog see a real correction since this whole rally started, price just kept on going higher and higher like all the problems were history and FOMO was/is in full force. In that blue area 2 months ago we could at least see a clear fight between bulls and bears, but this time that sideways action just seemed so controlled, i could not tell how much influence the Big boys would have and how high they wanted to push this market again. That's why i started to doubt certain things. My followers know through all my updates how i have been thinking the past few days.

Why did i say i can't believe i am posting this chart, because this one says we could make another rally towards 10.500 before really making another drop. These are not the best fractals, but when you look closely you can see allot of similarities. Especially the yellow area we are in now. This would mean that even though we made a big and fast drop now, does not mean this rally is already over! I showed that big inverse H&S a few days ago, and said that it had a target around the 10.500. That triangle we made around the 8800 also has the same target. So when price stays above the 8800/8700 we have to assume we will see another rally towards the 10.500. The neckline of the H&S around 8200 has to hold for bulls to be able to make that rally.
Why is 10.500 so conflicting for me? It's not a very big issue, but that chart i posted a few weeks ago (just like my previous analysis) says we have to stay below the 10.200/9.800 for this market to remain 100% bearish. So ideally this drop should be it already, but i can't ignore this chart and it's patterns. But for this to happen, we do need to see a small rally towards the 9400 soon! If we hang around the 9000 to long, than it will show to much weakness and we could see another wave down.
In my updates yesterday i showed a parabolic pattern on the low time frame, which was weakening and since than we made that big drop to 9200. Today i showed that H&S that was created because of this, but the dissapointing thing NOW was, the right shoulder was so small (in time and price), wondering where all the bulls are this time? The target around 8700 is already reached so it would fit the chart above that we have found support and go up from here. Does not have to be a straight line up of course!

It's not that THIS is it, the sell off was quite big and fast, making allot of people afraid again. That's why i have been saying for weeks now, that this market needs healthy correction's so these fast and scary drops don't happen.

Don't forget to like guys :)

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This H&S and parabolic move i was talking about. Here we can also see how price dropped below that support trend line as well. Which is a very weak sign of course. What the bulls need to do now is, break that resistance line that comes down from the 9700. If they manage to break that AND keep price above the 8700 ish, than we could be seeing a start of that rally towards 10.500 i am talking about.

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What i think could happen for the rest of the day, is something like this. Finding support around that green area, make price more stable and than start another FOMO rally towards the 10.500. Does not mean we can't do the same even if we drop below 8700, but this is the only price level i can think of that can give support for this bigger plan. Here we can see how price dropped below that rising trend line, tested it a few times as resistance and than continued the drop again. This is a very weak signal on the short time frame. That's we saw a fast drop towards the target of that H&S. It was a matter of time of course, to shake out some bulls. What the unexperienced people are still not used to, is that shake out's is not only for bears, but also for the bulls.
Now to be clear, this blue line i drew, is based on nothing more than a guess!

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XRP

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I see some Alts already turning up again. Could still see a small drop to retest the support

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Now it would be a good time to retest the support levels again. Secretly i am thinking about going long around 8600/8800, but with a small position and a close stop.

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Looks like a bear flag, but the flag is a bit to steep, think another wave towards 8700/8900 will happen, since we also are very close to the neckline of that H&S. Unless bulls are strong enough to push through the 9200, but i doubt that after a 1000 point drop

Don't forget to like guys:)

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So a perfect rejection of the neckline again. Good to see Bitcoin moving naturally again. Think we will still see a move upwards, like i posted in my analysis. but where this wave will start is the question. Just above the previous low or maybe like 100 points below it

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Think we could be turning around now, maybe slightly lower.

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Probably it already, looks like a small wedge

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Crap :) wrong chart, was about to post a trade for BCH as well

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I am just really loving this volatility again, just letting the market do it's thing, without big players forcing this market into their direction and position. Almost like a free world again :) LOL

Don't forget to like if you appreciate what i am doing

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No real bounce yet, but the drop is slowing down it seems

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And another drop, it has gone lower than i though it would. We should see a bounce around here now, otherwise the whole fractal theory will fail. But 8200ish could still be a good level for a retest of that Big inverse H&S.

Funny to see, how an almost unstoppable bull rally, just extreme strength, not ready to make any corrections, all of a sudden seems to be so weak, just like a month ago. If this is not a more clear sign, that there are some big players at work here, than i don't know what is.

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With that last drop, we did not see a bounce at all, almost slipped away again and than out of nowhere a big buy order pushed prices above 8700. Support buying i have seen before in the past half year. So i would be very surprised if we drop below it

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It’s starting to look like a descending wedge now, it would give room for a drop towards the 8600ish,

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Price has stabilised quite well now, it’s not to close to the low, but we do need to see some movement up soon, otherwise chances increase that we can retest the low again. So far it’s looking good, but volume has to increase a bit as well. So fingers on the trigger

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Not at home now, but from what I can see, for short term bullish momentum (low time frame) it has to stay above the 8700/8750. Below that price we have to assume it can retest the 8500/8200. For now I still assume we go higher, but again, volume has to increase if we go up

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Bulls have to try to keep the price within this circle, making higher lowes on the short time frame. So i want to see the 8700 hold. If it breaks, it will probably drop some more like i mentioned earlier

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I just scrolled through some Alts, most of them are showing short term bearish signals. So it's not looking good right now, bear flags can still get invalidated, but bulls have to come in soon and put up a fight, otherwise chances increase we see another drop.

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It looks like it’s in some sort of triangle now, movements getting smaller, should see a break out soon.

Because of the pattern and the location (after yesterday’s big drop), chances are bigger it will break downwards. I said yesterday that It should not take TOO long to go higher again. Bulls still have a chance, but they need to take it soon!!

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Bulls are making another attempt, I think they going for it. If they can push it above the 8950/9000 within the next 2 hours, than we are in the clear. But we need some volume to go along with it. Still bearish on the short time frame, so Bulls need to fight against the bear flags. If they don’t succeed, I expect an acceleration downwards

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So finally a small break out, first step is there but we are not there yet! It needs to make a good bull flag now and than break the 9200, only than can we think about higher prices.

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A simple bull flag like this that follows through immediately, it seriously has been weeks, actually even months almost.
9200 is a big resistance, so it won't be an easy one to break. But if bulls keep up this momentum now than it will break

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This is a little tricky now, if price also drops below the 9000/9020, it could mean we already have a fake breakout. Because it's happening to soon

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I posted a new analysis

Bitcoin Fractal still valid, another rally in to the 10K's

botje11

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