Here's a chart of the Bitcoin's Bear Market of 2014.
Note this: The absolute bottom was 88.6% retracement which puts it at around 3000 in today's prices. And we had a double bottom, not a single one.
Lets draw some parallels. We see 3 possible points for crossing the down channel on log.
- We can't be in point 2 because EMAs are fanning down while price is touching the channel, hence the rejection and bounce down. Right now they are all fanning up.
So, it's not just about touching the channel, it's also about other things confirming moves.
- We can be in point 1 where the log channel was still a dotted line and we smashed it. An up trend followed till, guess what? A golden cross where many people bought. That's where the bull trap was. And they can play the same trick again. We won't make a new high, the channel will adjust, we will touch it and crash. Keep that in mind.
And during that up trend we went to the previous high, which is 9100 now. And we just did it again. Or should we extend it to 12000?
We can expect a possible golden cross on a daily before the 29th. The CME futures expire on 27th. Pantera will probably close their long futures, go short and let the markets crash after the golden cross.
Or we can simply get rejected on a daily and go down without a cross (point 3). This means we might still go down quite a lot to the absolute bottom.
- We can be in point 3 which implies a trading range with top resistance 12000 and bottom 6000. We will move up, catch some bulls in a trap, then crash to 6000 once again before the real up trend begins.
Watch for those curves. For the real up trend we need them curving up, not down.
Watch RSI. We need extreme values on a daily: 90 or 15, not 80, not 85, not 20.
But, of course, we can experience a totally different scenario. That's just a note on some things that you can expect.
Good Luck!
Note this: The absolute bottom was 88.6% retracement which puts it at around 3000 in today's prices. And we had a double bottom, not a single one.
Lets draw some parallels. We see 3 possible points for crossing the down channel on log.
- We can't be in point 2 because EMAs are fanning down while price is touching the channel, hence the rejection and bounce down. Right now they are all fanning up.
So, it's not just about touching the channel, it's also about other things confirming moves.
- We can be in point 1 where the log channel was still a dotted line and we smashed it. An up trend followed till, guess what? A golden cross where many people bought. That's where the bull trap was. And they can play the same trick again. We won't make a new high, the channel will adjust, we will touch it and crash. Keep that in mind.
And during that up trend we went to the previous high, which is 9100 now. And we just did it again. Or should we extend it to 12000?
We can expect a possible golden cross on a daily before the 29th. The CME futures expire on 27th. Pantera will probably close their long futures, go short and let the markets crash after the golden cross.
Or we can simply get rejected on a daily and go down without a cross (point 3). This means we might still go down quite a lot to the absolute bottom.
- We can be in point 3 which implies a trading range with top resistance 12000 and bottom 6000. We will move up, catch some bulls in a trap, then crash to 6000 once again before the real up trend begins.
Watch for those curves. For the real up trend we need them curving up, not down.
Watch RSI. We need extreme values on a daily: 90 or 15, not 80, not 85, not 20.
But, of course, we can experience a totally different scenario. That's just a note on some things that you can expect.
Good Luck!
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.