I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
Previous analysis / position: “Isn’t much room left for continued sideways action. Consolidation starts with a wide range and a lot of volatility . Big trends tend to start following a very tight range and lowvolume / volatility / Bollinger Band super squeeze.” / Short BTC from $6,354 | Short USDT:USD from 0.968 with order set at 0.97 to cover. Patterns: Symmetrical Triangle Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,360 | R: $6,376 - $6,383 BTCUSDSHORTS: Daily dragonfly tells me that shorts should start increasing within the next 24 - 48 hours Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01% Short term trend (3 day MA): Price closed > 3 MA | Watching for resistance from 9 MA and 34 MA Medium term trend (8 day MA): Angling up at $6,400 Long term trend ( 34 day MA): Angling down with price currently testing it Overall trend: Long term trend is firmly bearish. Weekly candle closed below 3 MA which is below 9 MA which is below 34 MA. That is a fully bearish setup. Volume: Pitiful FIB’s: Using Oct 15th candle) 0.382 = $6,559 | 0.5 = $6,483 | 0.618 = $6,405 | 0.786 = $6,280 Candlestick analysis: Rally at the end of the day closed a bullish wick / dragonfly doji Ichimoku Cloud: Price fell out of 4h cloud yesterday. Now it is right back inside of it. TD’ Sequential: Daily r5 | W r1 Visible Range: Looking back to last November the high volume node is 2X all other nodes and sits at $6,154 - $6,789. Price action: 24h: +0.34% | 2w: +1.73% | 1m: +3.6% Bollinger Bands: Currently finding resistance from daily MA Trendline: Phase 2 of hyperwave at $6,360 Daily Trend: chop Fractals: Up: $6,564 | Down: $6,207 RSI: Overbought on 30 minute. Watching for bear div Stochastic: Daily attempting to cross bullish. Weekly buy.
Summary: The weekly candle closing below the 3 MA is very important to me. That puts the weekly chart back into a fully bearish posture. It is strongly preferable to start your analysis with higher TF’s. I start with the weekly and zoom in from there.
The daily turned fully bearish a couple days ago triggering a full entry. Now that the higher TF is in agreeance I feel much more confident in my position.
I have been paying close attention to the 30 minute chart for intraday price movements. The price briefly broke out of the down trend that I drew in yesterday’s post. Then it found resistance from horizontals. The we sold off to $6,270 before creating a double bottom.
Now it is trying to from a bull flag and / or a Bulkowski Big W. However I am not falling for that myself. Instead I am paying close attention to the overbought RSI to see if we will get a divergence.
By this time tomorrow I expect to create a new low below the $6,270 low from today. The weekly buy signal is a bit concerning and is the strongest indication that I see showing a bullish continuation over the next week.
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