As many of you know, I have been referring This cycle of Bitcoin to that of the 2013 ->2017 bull run. And while PA has Fallen off and below the Fractal itself, we do still have one Very Major thing to see and it is a Good one.
So, the chart above has an arrow. This is pointing to Sep, Oct, Nov 2024.
See how PA pushed up to the "Neckline" of the Range and got rejected for 2 weeks.
A Red then Green Candles, on or below that "Neckline" and then Off it went.
We are currently just below the "Neckline" of this Range and we are currently printing a Red candle. It is early days but maybe we will repeat the same pattern.
There are reasons that I have explained in an earlier post today, that point towards a possible Red candle this week.
The other thing I want to show you on this subject is the MACD
https://www.tradingview.com/x/mXutC8GG/
This is a Daily MACD ( the main chart being Weekly) But while the actual PA of the MACD is different, I want you to see the Histogram. The Histogram shows us the % Difference between the MACD line ( yellow) and its Signal line ( Red)
Have a look at the the similarity the histogram pattern in 2024 ( arrow ) compared to this period Now.
The Large green Climb from a Low, the fall, the new smaller climb, the drop to Red and then a push higher.
OK, so the scale is different but, to me, it shows a similar pattern to the previous end of Ranging period.
We need to see if this pays out. If so, we will see a Red Histogram for a while..
This ties in with the ideas presented above on the PA patterns.
But overall this cycle, we do seem to be repeating patterns in a broad sense, with a larger scale currently. The larger scale of thispossible Red Histogram also plays into the idea mentioned at the end of this post.
So , what is the connection to the 2013 - 2017 Cycle.
Look at the upper trendline that has rejected PA since 2024. This is an OLD line of resistance from before 2017...
Lets look at a zoomed out chart
https://www.tradingview.com/x/912VkhvI/
Look at that Arrow on the Left and that trend line.
It is the SAME LINE - Not only that, it rejected PA twice in late 2016 and 2017, before PA broke through and went on to reach a new ATH
So, Having seen this, I am happy to believe that we ARE Still following that 2013 -> 2017 Cycle pattern.
True, PA has fallen below the Fractel but we do seem to be repeating the Trend line Rejection, Dip, Rejection and........
You can also see how this same trend line, once crossed, is extremely strong support - infact we did not drop back below until July 2022, after another ATH
BUT, as ever, I look to BOTH sides and there is a chance we may see a stiffer rejection, IF we get rejected here again.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/bHITvmrX/
Should events dictate a further Drop in PA, we may see PA return to the next trend line below, around 82K. ( remember that Red Histogram pattern I mentioned earlier )
While this would Scare many, it would still play into the pattern we have been seeing.
2024 saw 3 major Rejections off its Neckline.
We have had 2 so far in 2025 and we are there right now, waiting to see what happens, with a RED candle. A Drop back to 82K would also reset the Daily MACD very nicely.
I remain Cautious and Bullish
what ever happens in the short term, I have little doubt about further pushes higher, maybe a LOT higher
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.